stuffradio Posted September 29, 2017 Report Share Posted September 29, 2017 Happy October! Will we see our first frost this month? It's possible! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2017 Prolly should call this the Phil Jesse and Tim thread. That's what it's gonna end up being until something noteworthy weather related happens....That would break the template we've had for monthly weather threads, so I don't think I will do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 FWIW. Years with similar, developing -ENSO. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Happy October! Will we see our first frost this month? It's possible! Would be nice. Had a light frost here last October on the 11th and 12th. *Pinned* Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 12Z ECMWF just skims us with the trough next week... not even any precip shown. Then it shows another ridge nosing in at day 10... very nice pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 The greening up continues... first picture in the late summer and second picture taken just now: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 12Z ECMWF just skims us with the trough next week... not even any precip shown. Then it shows another ridge nosing in at day 10... very nice pattern. Looks like a cool and dry run overall. #timandjesseharmony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 Looks like a cool and dry run overall. #timandjesseharmony Yeah... its completely dry after the lingering showers tomorrow. 9 consecutive dry days in October would be a wonderful thing in my book... particularly after being drenched here. And should make for some great fall scenery. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month. What was that like? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 30, 2017 Report Share Posted September 30, 2017 What was that like? Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. https://wrcc.dri.edu/ https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/summaries/daily https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-CE5672D5-0744-4521-A190-EDD60FA3756D.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor. WTF??? We need rain so desperately here! It stopped around noon. Getting the sprinklers out again. The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Prolly should call this the Phil Jesse and Tim thread. That's what it's gonna end up being until something noteworthy weather related happens.... This trough is pretty noteworthy. Going to get chilly in the coming days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month. I was never impressed with 2002. The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO. 2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 FWIW. Years with similar, developing -ENSO. cd174.29.59.10.271.22.18.6.prcp.png Technically this will be two La Nina winters in a row. Having a Nino between them was really weird. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 I was never impressed with 2002. The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO. 2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation.That's true, but it was still a remarkable setup. A massive ridge of high pressure (height sd's 4+) over the Canadian arctic drove a chunk of the Hudson Bay low all the way into Montana. We didn't really have a GOA ridge or any northerly flow, but we sure maximized the radiational cooling after the mass advection of continental air from the E/NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?Last year. Before that I think you might have to go all the way back to 2015. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Helped my dad move up to Port Townsend today. That's a nice area. I heard we missed a pretty heavy downpour with some thunder and lightning here at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms? It does happen reasonably often. More often in seasons that give way to colder winters. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Helped my dad move up to Port Townsend today. That's a nice area. I heard we missed a pretty heavy downpour with some thunder and lightning here at home. That's a neat area. I had dinner at Manresa Castle once. Super expensive...I wasn't the one paying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 The ECMWF is very sharp with next weekend's trough. Looks much more the like the GEM. I love seeing a repeating pattern like this in October. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. https://wrcc.dri.edu/ https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/summaries/daily https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-CE5672D5-0744-4521-A190-EDD60FA3756D.pdfYou can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=10&year=2002&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep®ion=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002. Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery. Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom. You won't believe the amount of imagery they have. It's quite addicting actually. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 It does happen reasonably often. More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.Makes sense actually as in that scenario it's easier to fire up convection due to sharper air mass differences where in stable falls/winters there is less difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. https://wrcc.dri.edu/ https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/summaries/daily https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-CE5672D5-0744-4521-A190-EDD60FA3756D.pdf Thanks for the links. I was on my phone, so it wasn't as easy - otherwise I wouldn't have asked. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor. WTF??? We need rain so desperately here! It stopped around noon. Getting the sprinklers out again. The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough. Couldn't help but notice the convergence like zone over your area now....or uplift type effect. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 You can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=10&year=2002&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep®ion=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002. Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery. Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom. You won't believe the amount of imagery they have. It's quite addicting actually. Wow, very cool. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Remember this blast? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=24&month=11&year=2010&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep®ion=&mode=0%C2%A0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 1.25 inches would be a major winter storm here. Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor. WTF??? We need rain so desperately here! It stopped around noon. Getting the sprinklers out again. The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Thanks for the links. I was on my phone, so it wasn't as easy - otherwise I wouldn't have asked. No problem! I would have waited till I wasn't on my phone, and looked it up myself. I guess that's my curiosity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 That's a neat area. I had dinner at Manresa Castle once. Super expensive...I wasn't the one paying. All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places. I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Here's a different kind of stat. PDX finished September with 9 days at/above 86 degrees, one of only 9 Septembers to do so: 10 days @ 86+: 1974, 1987, 1989, 20119 days @ 86+: 1944, 1975, 1991, 1993, 2017 Of those 9 Septembers, 2017 had the coolest average maximum at 77.5F. So this is another way of quantifying the variability we saw last month, with plenty of cold troughing in the second half of the month to offset a near-record amount of hot days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places. I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes. I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010. Sounds pretty similar to the climate here, but I think the rain shadow has even more of an influence down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010. The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Just like last winter the GFS is struggling with a possible cutoff low to our SW or WSW interfering with a trough trying to dig down from the north. The 6z had no cutoff low so the trough solidly dug in while the 12z has the cutoff low there again causing the trough to deflect. The 0z GEM and 0z ECMWF agreed with the 6z GFS so for now going with a sharp trough scenario seems reasonable. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage. I totally agree. The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though. Probably a number of situations where they miss out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Wow the 12z sure is an extremely mild run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 I totally agree. The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though. Probably a number of situations where they miss out. Yeah, anecdotally I can't remember too many events where that area was a sweet spot. It seems like they always miss out a bit in one setup or another, and they're obviously pretty moderated by water being on the edge of a little peninsula. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 1, 2017 Report Share Posted October 1, 2017 Sounds pretty similar to the climate here, but I think the rain shadow has even more of an influence down there. Definitely. Sequim only averages 16" of precip per year. Even out to Coupeville the average is only 20". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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