October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[snow_wizard]

I would be surprised if it was snowier for C. Oregon too... But I think we will probably see better snowpack in the Cascades at the mid-elevations, and I think a good chance for more snow at PDX and SLE. 

 

I would hope more snow for Seattle also.  We really got burned in that department last winter.  Just bad luck on top of bad luck.

[snow_wizard]

Last winter the monthlies didn't lock on until November, so I guess we'll see. I'm personally leaning towards something resembling 2007/08 this winter (typical cold west/warm east). Not sure about the extent of upstream Pacific blocking, but either way I'm definitely using analogs with expanded WPAC warm pools.

 

I'm confident we will see more amplification than 2007-08.  Very little would make a huge difference for us.

[snow_wizard]

What's the accuracy of the Euro monthlies like? Are they more accurate or less accurate than the Climate Prediction Center's monthly outlooks? I'd guess more accurate because the CPC ones seem to have a warm bias.

 

I would hope the CPC is more accurate.  They use about 15 different models including the Euro.

[snow_wizard]

New Euro monthlies peak the Niña @ -1.0C in N3.4. Verbatim in shows a cold winter in the PNW, colder than last year, with the coldest months (relative to average) being December, February, and March. The warmest months (relative to average) are November and January.

 

November: Cold central US, warm West and Southeast.

December: Very cold everywhere, except near the Gulf Coast.

January: Cold Plains/Rockies, warm East and far West.

February: Cold PNW, blowtorch everywhere else.

March: Very cold PNW, blowtorch everywhere else.

 

Sounds intriguing.  I hope we get our coldest anoms in January, but this sounds fine also.

[Phil]

While not exactly in the "PNW" (in the NW though??) but for those interested, my Davis weather station is up and running! Still working out a few kinks, still needs a rain gauge heater installed and working on getting it up on the CWOP network but it's online and can be viewed here. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

 

Current view of the setup.

 

IMG_4684.jpg

Awesome! Just bookmarked it.

 

Now to get Tim to install one..lol.

[Phil]

[WeatherArchive]

Why does Olympia, WA sees colder overnight lows compared to the nearby surrounding areas?

The airport is located further inland.  I am not sure how much it is representative of the town it is actually but what I do know is when we go visit family up in Port Townsend going thru Olympia is usually a bit hotter/more humid in the summer then surrounding areas regardless.    Here is where the airport is plugged at.  https://www.google.com/maps/place/Olympia+Regional+Airport/@46.9756201,-122.913316,12.05z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x549173dc21f93609:0x57fcbf942bf33cb1!8m2!3d46.9753287!4d-122.8972437

[Jesse]

It has sure felt cool to start October, but we're only running -0.5F for the month here.

Almost -2F down here. By next weekend it will likely be a good deal lower.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is really impressive.  A pretty long period with sub 534 thickness over Seattle with very limited moisture.  Temps should run way below normal with that.

[snow_wizard]

Almost -2F down here. By next weekend it will likely be a good deal lower.

 

For sure.  I'm running way below normal IMBY.  My month to date average is just slightly above the normal for the entire month.  With normal dropping about a degree every 3 or 4 days that's pretty chilly.

[Jesse]

Some great autumn color in the Indian Heaven wilderness today.

[DareDuck]

Nice pics Jesse. Colors are really getting going in central OR.

[Timmy]

Nice pics Jesse. Colors are really getting going in central OR.

Beautiful over santiam pass today! The burning up there is crazy. That poor pass has had its share of wildfires lately.

[ShawniganLake]

Some great autumn color in the Indian Heaven wilderness today.

 

IMG_8098.JPG

 

IMG_8118.JPG

 

IMG_8109.JPG

 

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IMG_8106.JPG

What's the elevation up there?

[Jesse]

What's the elevation up there?

The center of the area is a volcanic plateau around 4,000'. Lots of little kettle lakes and subalpine meadows.

[wx_statman]

34 in Port Townsend and 18 in Burns at 1am. Cold night out there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like so far PDX hit 40, but didn't crack it. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a gorgeous sunrise in the making.   41 for a low here this morning.

[Jbolin]

Looks like a gorgeous sunrise in the making.   41 for a low here this morning.

I can confirm from my perch here in w. sea

 

In the process of a timelapse as well

[Chewbacca Defense]

While not exactly in the "PNW" (in the NW though??) but for those interested, my Davis weather station is up and running! Still working out a few kinks, still needs a rain gauge heater installed and working on getting it up on the CWOP network but it's online and can be viewed here. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

 

Current view of the setup.

 

IMG_4684.jpg

 

 

Awesome!  I've added it to my list.  BTW it looks like my son has decided on MSU...He has applied but we are waiting on his SAT scores before getting officially accepted, and he has already submitted his housing application, so assuming we get a good financial aide package, we should be venturing out that way more often.

[Jesse]

First dense fog of the season here this morning. Got down to 37 earlier which is my coldest low so far this fall.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX's last run at 70 for at least a week or two today; maybe for the season.

 

Although the widespread low clouds and fog this morning could hold things back a little.

[Kayla]

Awesome!  I've added it to my list.  BTW it looks like my son has decided on MSU...He has applied but we are waiting on his SAT scores before getting officially accepted, and he has already submitted his housing application, so assuming we get a good financial aide package, we should be venturing out that way more often.

 

That's great! Go Cats!!   I think he's going to love it. Was just on campus last week and the new dorms and dinning hall are looking great and look to be done by the Fall 2018 semester so perfect timing for him!

 

That's very exciting. Keep me updated on the progress of things!

[Jesse]

Awesome! I've added it to my list. BTW it looks like my son has decided on MSU...He has applied but we are waiting on his SAT scores before getting officially accepted, and he has already submitted his housing application, so assuming we get a good financial aide package, we should be venturing out that way more often.

Congrats to him. MSU is my fiancée's parents' alma mater so I've heard a lot of good things.

[stuffradio]

Happy Thanksgiving to us!

[TT-SEA]

Happy Thanksgiving to us!

 

Beautiful day!   Enjoy. 

[Geos]

While not exactly in the "PNW" (in the NW though??) but for those interested, my Davis weather station is up and running! Still working out a few kinks, still needs a rain gauge heater installed and working on getting it up on the CWOP network but it's online and can be viewed here. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

 

Current view of the setup.

 

IMG_4684.jpg

 

That is quite the beautiful piece of land. Thanks for sharing.

 

I just looked at the weather station locations and it's like a mile from where I have some friends in Gallatin Gateway! That's cool. 

[Geos]

Happy Thanksgiving to our neighbors to the north!

 

Had scattered patches of frost on the rooftops today. Low of 37. Already up to 47 now though.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like PDX's last run at 70 for at least a week or two today; maybe for the season.

 

Although the widespread low clouds and fog this morning could hold things back a little.

 

The 12Z GFS and the the 00Z ECMWF show the trough initially diving a little farther offshore early next week.   Maybe allowing for a couple warm days.   I don't buy it yet but this would likely get PDX up to 70 again.  

 

[Geos]

I would hope more snow for Seattle also.  We really got burned in that department last winter.  Just bad luck on top of bad luck.

 

Yeah the Columbia River corridor/gorge had most of the fun last winter. 

Need the cold air drawn down out the Fraser River Valley more often this winter. 

 

Still was happy with the 14" I got. 

[stuffradio]

Ryan Maue added snowfall projection now for the ECMWF model

[Geos]

Ryan Maue added snowfall projection now for the ECMWF model

 

Did he create a new site on his own?

[stuffradio]

Did he create a new site on his own?

No, he's working for a new company and ECMWF access is free, and we can share those ECMWF images if the copyright is in place.

[Geos]

No, he's working for a new company and ECMWF access is free, and we can share those ECMWF images if the copyright is in place.

 

Found the site. Maps are not bad. Wish he had regional maps of the US up. Maybe later...

[stuffradio]

Found the site. Maps are not bad. Wish he had regional maps of the US up. Maybe later...

Actually apparently it is his site, along with a partner... but he is working for a new company too.

[Jesse]

The 12Z GFS and the the 00Z ECMWF show the trough initially diving a little farther offshore early next week. Maybe allowing for a couple warm days. I don't buy it yet but this would likely get PDX up to 70 again.

 

 

Fortunately the operational 12z looks like an outlier with that ridge.

 

[TT-SEA]

Fortunately the operational 12z looks like an outlier with that ridge.

 

IMG_8146.PNG

Yeah... I don't buy the warm solution.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX snuck down to 39 this morning. First October 30s there in 4 years!

[Jesse]

Yeah... I don't buy the warm solution.

I don't know. Last night's Euro could have been right on the money digging the trough too far offshore initially. It's never been wrong about that before.

[Geos]

Are you using this site?  http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

 

 

I just found the regional maps, right before you posted this. Thanks.