Brennan Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 The latest weekly number is -0.8C in the 3.4 region. The October number isn't in yet.I meant Snowwizard's NPI number 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 25, 2017 Report Share Posted October 25, 2017 I meant Snowwizard's NPI number Probably in the -5.5 range, at close. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Probably in the -5.5 range, at close. Probably pretty close. Going to be the highest of any October at least since 1948. I'll give an updated month to date number shortly. You probably meant +5.5. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Probably pretty close. Going to be the highest of any October at least since 1948. I'll give an updated month to date number shortly. You probably meant +5.5.Yeah, oops. I'm guessing it finish around +5 to +5.5, just doing extrapolations in my head based on your definition of the index, though. So I could be off a bit. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Yup. Sitting at +5.5 through the 23rd. Looks like high pressure out there for the rest of the month so the monthly number should be over +5 pretty easily. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 26, 2017 Report Share Posted October 26, 2017 Ha, what a lucky guess. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 That's pretty epic. What do November numbers correlate with for winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 That's pretty epic. What do November numbers correlate with for winter? It's not nearly as perfect a correlation as October, although very high ones often lead to good things in December. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 5.35 through the 25th. Little question this month will blow away 1961 as the highest NPS October. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 28, 2017 Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 5.35 through the 25th. Little question this month will blow away 1961 as the highest NPS October.Perhaps it's too high to be useful this year. #weirdyears#glaamjam2007 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 Perhaps it's too high to be useful this year. #weirdyears#glaamjam2007 Hopefully not...sometimes things work that way though. On the other hand it appears 1916 may have actually been as high and that was a solid winter. One of those rare winters that had decent cold in every month. While data from that far back needs to be taken with a small grain of salt, the observed weather in the NW certainly indicates October 1916 had persistent high pressure off the coast. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 28, 2017 Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 Hopefully not...sometimes things work that way though. On the other hand it appears 1916 may have actually been as high and that was a solid winter. One of those rare winters that had decent cold in every month. While data from that far back needs to be taken with a small grain of salt, the observed weather in the NW certainly indicates October 1916 had persistent high pressure off the coast.A tiny, infinitesimal grain of salt. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 30, 2017 Report Share Posted October 30, 2017 5.35 through the 25th. Little question this month will blow away 1961 as the highest NPS October. What are we looking at as of today? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 What are we looking at as of today? 4.60 through the 28th, but the final three days will be big numbers. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October! Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following. 1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan 1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for Puget Sound Lowlands since 1895, third coldest Jan for SEA 1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar 1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for Puget Sound since 1895 1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for Puget Sound since 1895, prolonged cold 1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA, coldest Nov / Dec combo in recorded history 1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA 2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA I think I have really stumbled onto something here. Amazing correlation! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October! Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following. 1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan 1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for SEA, third coldest Jan 1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar 1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for SEA 1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for SEA, prolonged cold 1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA 1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA 2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA I think I have really stumbled onto something here. Amazing correlation!Wow. You are really going all in on this coming winter. Just to tie together a couple of your posts tonight. Last December was indeed pretty cold for northern regions, despite no major blast. Shawnigan lake recorded the same monthly mean in December 2016 as we did in Dec 1990 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Wow. You are really going all in on this coming winter. Just to tie together a couple of your posts tonight. Last December was indeed pretty cold for northern regions, despite no major blast. Shawnigan lake recorded the same monthly mean in December 2016 as we did in Dec 1990 Wow! I didn't realize that. The winter was solid here, but not outstanding. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Looking at years that had a high NPS for Oct and Nov combined the picture is even more clear than with just a high October! Looking at the 8 highest such years on record with neutral or cold ENSO we have the following. 1948 - Coldest winter on record for SEA, second coldest Jan 1956 - 11th coldest winter on record for SEA, third coldest Jan 1961 - Significant Arctic blast in Jan, historic late blast in Feb / early Mar 1971 - 3rd snowiest winter on record for SEA, major snowstorm and blast in late Jan, 17th coldest winter for SEA 1978 - 7th coldest winter on record for SEA, prolonged cold 1985 - Coldest Nov on record for SEA, coldest Nov / Dec combo in recorded history 1990 - Coldest Dec on record for SEA 2013 - Major blasts Dec and Feb, major snows in Oregon and SW WA I think I have really stumbled onto something here. Amazing correlation!Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now). These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now). These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change. Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November: 1981-821962-63 There's 1962 again! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November: 1981-821962-63 There's 1962 again!Eww. ‘62. One of the worst snow years in history up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November: 1981-821962-63 There's 1962 again!Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Eww. ‘62. One of the worst snow years in history up here. Great winter for blocking and cold weather across the N. Hemisphere though, including the US. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol. I definitely don't expect a 1962-63 repeat, regardless of where all the indices line up. Hard to analog for such an outlier! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 I definitely don't expect a 1962-63 repeat, regardless of where all the indices line up. Hard to analog for such an outlier!Yeah, that was a weird year. Subject to plenty of research. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2346/full Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy. I'm with Jim! ALL IN Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy. I'm with Jim! ALL IN We need 60% to pass this into law and force nature follow our instructions. Get on board people. Jim could start attacking naysayers on Twitter soon... very effective! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Eww. ‘62. One of the worst snow years in history up here. Was it just cold up there? Or high and dry? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Starting to think this winter might require a full on meltdown in order to get cold and snowy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Was it just cold up there? Or high and dry?November December and February were warm and snowless. January was cold and dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Yeah, that was a weird year. Subject to plenty of research. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2346/full For sure. Coldest winter since 1739-40 in England. https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-burt.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 Starting to think this winter might require a full on meltdown in order to get cold and snowy. The trajectory of previous falls suggests this could happen as soon as early December. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 31, 2017 Report Share Posted October 31, 2017 The trajectory of previous falls suggests this could happen as soon as early December.Would be nice... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Interesting how only one of those years was -QBO. Though we still technically have westerlies @ 50mb right now, so that's still playing on the NPAC High (for now). These westerlies will reverse to easterlies at some point this winter, so when that happens, I suspect this +QBO-esque circulation will change. That is amazing only one of them had -QBO...I was going to look at that tonight. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Interesting point about westerlies at 50mb right now. Looking back, the last time we transitioned from westerlies to easterlies at 50mb in November (with -ENSO) was back in 1981-82. Winters like 2007-08 were solidly -QBO at both 50mb and 30mb by this point in the cold season. Looking at all -ENSO/-QBO seasons since 1953, where the -QBO transition at 50mb held off until November: 1981-821962-63 There's 1962 again! Both of those had nice events in January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Yup, definitely popping up a lot lately. Only big difference is, the IO flipped into a raging negative phase that year. Unless we can do the same this year, I wonder if we don't just flip into a 2007/08 type pattern this time. I hope not, but, ya know..lol. We'll see. Usually the pattern for winter gets set up in mid fall or thereabouts. Maybe it will be too late to derail this. This autumn is acting very different than 2007. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 A nice, happy medium between 1962-63 and 2007-08 would probably make a lot of people happy. I'm with Jim! ALL IN That's a VERY good point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 November December and February were warm and snowless. January was cold and dry. The January was REALLY cold though. We did have snow down here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Both of those had nice events in January.I was thinking that too. Both of those winters also produced record cold in England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 1, 2017 Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 Wasn't 2008 a legendary December but then Jan and Feb didn't do much in Oregon as far as I remember? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2017 I was thinking that too. Both of those winters also produced record cold in England. No doubt we have some very interesting years on the table this time around. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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