November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

55* on my balcony. Just hung up my Christmas lights! Now let's get some cold and snow to complement that.

[Money]

Euro still shows the potential big storm at the end of the run with nice blocking developing

[Snowlover76]

Long range looks abysmal for Nebraska.

 

 

[GDR]

Gfs looks like a crap fest. Don't bother looking Nebraska peeps!

[Minny_Weather]

Gfs looks like a crap fest. Don't bother looking Nebraska peeps!

Honestly I'm okay with it. Both GFS and Euro show the SW ridge that's plaguing us going away. Euro is a bit more progressive, but I'll wait a couple days to see what happens with us after the ridge pisses off. I think we're in the clear again come early December.

[Stormgeek]

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/USA/2017/ims2017322_usa.gif

 

Well, you can't really fill Canada up anymore or there will be a glacier to our north! Certainly this has to spill over eventually.....right? Models are dismal to say the least for snow prospects here. But hey, on the bright side we can look at the brown grass in the cold instead of under the torch this year. Here is to hoping for a snowy DJF!

[Money]

18z gfs is a storm parade at the end of the run

[NEJeremy]

Famous last words, “at the end of the run”. Funny how that seems to always be when the pattern changes and the big storm is showing up.

[Niko]

Its seasonably cold w temps @ 33F w snowshowers flying around. Average H/L is 46/32.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Could be what gary lezac is talking about the early octbpattern cycling back.

[Thunder98]

Somewhat O/T

 

Wunderground announced that the personal webcams feature will be gone by December 15th, 2017. Very sad how Wunderground has been going downhill in the last recent years

 

http://help.wunderground.com/knowledgebase/articles/1821811

[VMB443]

All quiet on the weather front...

[james1976]

All quiet on the weather front...

Yup. Nothing on the models for the rest of the month. Looks mild n dry for the most part.

[GDR]

Will see ya mid December hopefully!

[Minny_Weather]

Ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge tiny trough ridge ridge ridge.

 

-The pattern for the forseeable future.

[Tom]

Back-to-Back sunny days here for what has been an extremely cloudy past week except for yesterday.  Personally, its nice to have the sun back out and lighten up the mood around here.  In AZ, it's no wonder why people out there are in such a better mood than places like OR/WA or even out in the Midwest/East Coast where the sun isn't as prominent.  There has been research done on the impact of the sun to those people who live in sunnier regions.  I can vouch for that as I noticeably see the difference in people out in AZ and compare them to people out here in in the Midwest.

 

 

Ok, enough about the sun and I'll focus more on the weather.  Kinda nice to see the nation as a whole with quiet weather for traveling during the holiday.  In recent years, we've had travel trouble spots but doesn't look like it this year.  Models still trying to figure out what to do with the end of the month system.  I'm still not convinced on the LRC cycle length but I'm still seeing the 30- day harmonics.  One that really stands out to me is the evolution of what will be a PV disruption, not a split but a very similar pattern that evolved in the closing week of October which lead to a cold northern half of the nation for November (except for those in the south).

 

Temp departure map through the 19th...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Models struggling on what to do with the system for the end of the month.  IMO, I have noticed that when there is a SSW event that is showing up on the models, they tend to have erratic behavior.  This potential storm system lines up right at the time there will be a Strat warming event evolving over the Pole (28th).

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we were to use the East Asian Theory, it does argue a somewhat hard cutter.  See the track the system takes near Japan and obviously taking a northerly route.

 

 

[Snowlover76]

Ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge ridge tiny trough ridge ridge ridge.

 

-The pattern for the forseeable future.

Remember when people were saying it was gonna be cold?

 

 

What a joke. Another craptastic winter

[Minny_Weather]

Remember when people were saying it was gonna be cold?

 

 

What a joke. Another craptastic winter

November is not representative of the entire winter. 2000-2001 November was suckish too.

[Madtown]

It's been cold here...a d by u -3 off normals...it's November. Very few times is there snow on the ground across our state for gun deer season (this week) much less down by you guys. If we have snow issues come the 20th of Dec. then it's time to worry. Hell I think only 35 or 40% of the Christmas' are white up this way.You average 30" of snow per year. Would hate to waste 7 or 10" in November or early Dec.

[jaster220]

Remember when people were saying it was gonna be cold?

 

 

What a joke. Another craptastic winter

 

Unless that map above that Tom posted is totally wrong, you're averaging -3 to -6F for the month, and prolly more if we went back to the start of the flip which was 10/24 over my way but a couple/few days earlier for Neb peeps. If somebody was promising you -10 or 15F departures, then you should state that and back it up with something. I don't remember anyone on here making such an exact claim/forecast for yby? 

[jaster220]

It's been cold here...a d by u -3 off normals...it's November. Very few times is there snow on the ground across our state for gun deer season (this week) much less down by you guys. If we have snow issues come the 20th of Dec. then it's time to worry. Hell I think only 35 or 40% of the Christmas' are white up this way.You average 30" of snow per year. Would hate to waste 7 or 10" in November or early Dec.

 

Excellent sanity check post - kudos! 

 

As much as I'd like to score something out of all the cold we've had, snowy Novembers (there's not even been many, especially lately) are traditionally a bad omen for the following winter. Next 10 days are a snooze-fest tho, at least wrt any snow on the Euro, even over my way with the lake in play. I've expected winter to come about 3 weeks early this year, which would be the first week of December. We'll see how I do, and agree, we've got a solid month before we need to consider dusting off the panic button on the whole season, lol 

[NEJeremy]

We're going to have a cooler than normal month. Big deal. It was dry with no snowfall so as the way it looks, out first measurable snowfall will be sometime in December, which is actually later than normal. Not the roaring start to winter it sounded like was coming. Areas up near the Canadian border and the Rockies have done pretty good, but that's not Omaha, NE

[NEJeremy]

Excellent sanity check post - kudos! 

 

As much as I'd like to score something out of all the cold we've had, snowy Novembers (there's not even been many, especially lately) are traditionally a bad omen for the following winter. Next 10 days are a snooze-fest tho, at least wrt any snow on the Euro, even over my way with the lake in play. I've expected winter to come about 3 weeks early this year, which would be the first week of December. We'll see how I do, and agree, we've got a solid month before we need to consider dusting off the panic button on the whole season, lol 

I think the reason why some people are b*tching more than normal was the claims of such a fast start to winter coming. We all know it's "only November" and climatologically we shouldn't be expecting that much at this point, but the idea on this forum was that winter was going to come fast and early.

[Madtown]

.....because unless the roaring start happens over the top of you it can't really be happening....seriously NE.

[Minny_Weather]

We're going to have a cooler than normal month.

With possible 70s coming up this Friday I wouldn't be so sure about that.

 

Yeah, our dryness has for sure been concerning. LNK airport has recorded 0.07" for the month, which is very indicative of an overall dry airmass, which is no bueno in DJF here. However, two of our snowiest recent seasons, 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 both had

[NEJeremy]

Talk about some wild temperature swings this week here in Omaha.

 

60 today

38 early tomorrow with falling temps to the lower 30s and windy!

low 40s Wed

50s Thursday

near 70 friday

around 50 over the weekend

[Minny_Weather]

.....because unless the roaring start happens over the top of you it can't really be happening....seriously NE.

I'll be fair. Traditionally, when other areas cash in but not us, that means bad things here. You wouldn't know cuz you don't live here, but there has only been one Winter in the past 20 years (2006-07) where everybody but us had a fast start snow-wise, or any precip at all (start being before December 15) and we ended up above normal for snowfall. The patterns just don't look great. We're going into a pattern where the entire country is ridged pretty much, so hopefully that means something besides what happened last year.

 

Hint: We haven't had many fast starts lately.

[NEJeremy]

.....because unless the roaring start happens over the top of you it can't really be happening....seriously NE.

the "roaring" has started near the Canada border and in Canada and in the western Rockies. Go back and look at the threads/posts and there was talk about a lot more than that happening for a lot more of the posters on THIS FORUM.

[WBadgersW]

the "roaring" has started near the Canada border and in Canada and in the western Rockies. Go back and look at the threads/posts and there was talk about a lot more than that happening for a lot more of the posters on THIS FORUM.

Patience. The term "early start" is rather subjective. I for one believe early as in decent snows and cold, therefore the start of winter, around December 10th. Its November 20th..

[Money]

We're going to have a cooler than normal month. Big deal. It was dry with no snowfall so as the way it looks, out first measurable snowfall will be sometime in December, which is actually later than normal. Not the roaring start to winter it sounded like was coming. Areas up near the Canadian border and the Rockies have done pretty good, but that's not Omaha, NE

Boo-Hoo

 

It’s Nov. it’s early

[NEJeremy]

Boo-Hoo

 

It’s Nov. it’s early

That's exactly the point. Try to keep up.

[WBadgersW]

That's exactly the point. Try to keep up.

Its early for early winter standards

[Madtown]

Not sure what talk you're referring to.....lows in the single digits and teens....wintry systems which have occured (no blizzard talk or huge accumulation talk) reported thunder snow...i dunno just seems since bitching about your football team is futile one must move on to other things. I by no means am expecting a great winter, but average seems appropriate.

johndee.com/webcams/northwoods-cam-network/ more days with snow At our place up north than I can remember in recent history. Have a good one. Maybe snow will fall maybe it won't but can we stop complaining about a winter that hasn't started yet. Have a great day

[bud2380]

I'd love to be in Lincoln on Friday.  Temps well into the 70s.  It's gonna be a beautiful day for a college football game.  Too bad the teams on the field aren't going to be any good (Iowa vs. Nebraska).  Should be in the low 60s here in my back yard.  That is going to feel great.  Perfect time to get all the Christmas lights out.  

[bud2380]

The GFS has been hinting at this off and on in the extended.  The 12z has a pretty strong storm in the northern plains in the 9-10 day time frame.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112012/234/prateptype_cat.us_nc.png

[Tom]

I think the reason why some people are b*tching more than normal was the claims of such a fast start to winter coming. We all know it's "only November" and climatologically we shouldn't be expecting that much at this point, but the idea on this forum was that winter was going to come fast and early.

Our sub forum is so large and this is part of the problem.  For the most part, everyone practically north of say, I-80 or IA/KS has had a fast start to Winter.  Who ever said there would be snowstorm after snowstorm or be building a glacier?  I think people need to be more realistic and consider it's November and a "fast start" is not intended to suggest building a snow pack in the Plains/Midwest...however, up north in the Dakotas...yes!

 

In early November, models were painting an active storm track through the middle of November across the north and filling up southern Canada with snow and building the snow pack.  It also even included the Dakotas.  Did that happen...yes!  Did the GL's region enjoy a quick start...yes!  Did the Plains....Yes and No...you saw the cold, but accumulating snow...that's a big No...neither did "we" folks in the Midwest/Lower Lakes.  Although, we have had the storms track right through our region.

 

Nov 13th snow map....

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201711/nsm_depth_2017111305_Upper_Midwest.jpg

[Tom]

The GFS has been hinting at this off and on in the extended.  The 12z has a pretty strong storm in the northern plains in the 9-10 day time frame.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112012/234/prateptype_cat.us_nc.png

Now this is trending more like the Oct 6th/7th storm system...glad to see the 00z/12z runs of the GFS suggesting a very strong storm.  Let's just see the Euro come back with a storm during this time frame.

[Niko]

Unless that map above that Tom posted is totally wrong, you're averaging -3 to -6F for the month, and prolly more if we went back to the start of the flip which was 10/24 over my way but a couple/few days earlier for Neb peeps. If somebody was promising you -10 or 15F departures, then you should state that and back it up with something. I don't remember anyone on here making such an exact claim/forecast for yby? 

Took the words right outta my mouth Jaster.

 

@Snowlover76.......Its not Winter ...its still Autumn. You make it sound like its March already.  As for the cold, I have been running BN since October and you have also. IMHO this is plenty cold. Also, dont forget, its b4 Thanksgiving, so, do not expect too much. Tbh, any snowstorms we get in November is a bonus in my books.

[bud2380]

Canadian also showing the storm.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017112012/204/prateptype.us_nc.png