November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Doppler_Dustin]

Down to 14 this morning under clear skies

[GDR]

[St Paul Storm]

And just like that, 12z says what storm! Lol

Not terribly surprising at all. GFS is having trouble with the departing ridge. I’d expect to see it show up again on future runs. 12z GEM still showing something around the 28th/29th.

[hlcater]

And just like that, 12z says what storm! Lol

Well the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me. Gotta be patient, climo still doesn't quite favor those further south--The only big storm this time of year in the past decade or so was that Nov. 22nd storm 2015. 

[GDR]

You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience!

[Jaycee]

Well the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me. Gotta be patient, climo still doesn't quite favor those further south--The only big storm this time of year in the past decade or so was that Nov. 22nd storm 2015. 

I've been told to be patient for years m8, I can only do it for so long!

 

You're right though, still early, Thanksgiving storms are always rare, but I want signs that December will be amped up.

[St Paul Storm]

Well the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me.

 

Hyped up? Or simply just talking about it? Much better than talking/complaining about a pesky ridge of death.

[westMJim]

Clouds on this side of the lake kept it much warmer than areas on the west side of the lake. While many lows were in the teens to the west of the lake the low here was 29° and there were a few light snow showers but not much but did see some snow along the wipers of the car we keep outside. At this time with clouds and some peaks of the sun the temperature here is now 36° Not much wind so I will take a walk outside.

Here are some snow on the ground reports from several locations around Michigan at   AM:  5″ Munising and Champion, 4″ Darragh (Kalkaska Co.), 3″ Watersmeet and Trout Lake, 2″ Marquette.   

And The Gaylord NWS says:  “Watch for slick roads & reduced visibility in some areas (especially west of I-75)”.  Slick spots are mostly north of a line from Cadillac to Houghton Lake.

Looking ahead here is SW Michigan it looks that temperatures will be near average for the most part and no major snow fall for the next two to three weeks or more. Of course that is as always subject to change 

[Iowawx]

Iowa and Illinois could be in a drought, GFS has nothing, no precipitation. Not sure when we will see rain or snow again. This sucks.

[jaster220]

Iowa and Illinois could be in a drought, GFS has nothing, no precipitation. Not sure when we will see rain or snow again. This sucks.

 

It's been noted that when the models are forecasting an extended period of neutral AO (which isn't likely) it means that there are changes happening and they're a bit clueless. As Tom has shown, we're getting some hints/glimpses of where the road is leading, but not any real good picture yet. Enjoy the turkey, watch some football and parades. Thanksgiving's mostly been about cloudy and boring wx except for a rarity like '04 

[hlcater]

You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience!

"Good things come to those who wait." That said, if it's mid December and nothing looks to happen, then it's appropriate to get frustrated and start losing patience. But come on, its too early in the year, met winter hasn't even began yet.

[Tom]

It's been noted that when the models are forecasting an extended period of neutral AO (which isn't likely) it means that there are changes happening and they're a bit clueless. As Tom has shown, we're getting some hints/glimpses of where the road is leading, but not any real good picture yet. Enjoy the turkey, watch some football and parades. Thanksgiving's mostly been about cloudy and boring wx except for a rarity like '04 

I agree, enjoy the food, family time and the tranquil weather for the time being.  There is a lot of conflicting signals among the GEFS/EPS ensemble members so we just need to see how this all evolves over the next couple days.  I will say, things are looking better not worse as we close out the month of November.  Classic Split Flow developing in the NE PAC, Hudson Bay Vortex and the missing link we all were missing over the last few seasons (Polar Blocking).

[gabel23]

You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience!

As said by one of my favorite bands of all time.......

 

[Stormgeek]

Well, I went back to the November 2016 thread to see what was going on this time last year. From what I saw it appears we were prepping for a RAINSTORM up here in MN. Crazy just how different temps are this year, just need to get us a nice bowling ball!

[bud2380]

Euro still has a storm.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112212/144/sfcmslp.conus.png

[Tom]

Euro still has a storm.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112212/144/sfcmslp.conus.png

Nice to see the trough targeting CA and not OR/WA and tracking into the central Rockies.  Could this be another last weekend repeat???  Models struggled badly with the northern and southern wave.  I love seeing all that blocking west of Greenland and the eventual shifts in the track this run.  Certainly looks like a track that the early October system took.

[Tom]

12z Euro slowed this system down it looks like...

[Tom]

Snow breaking out in CO/NW KS/C NE this run...shift south is def noted and much slower...looks like it wants to dig a bit..

[Tom]

Defo band signature is nice to see over NE as the storm goes neg tilt...positive trends on the Euro in today's run...

[Tom]

Will post maps as the load but this storm has big potential...with all the blocking over the top, this storm has slowed down considerably and digs into a pretty large hit from NE to MN.  Plenty of time for shifts and farther details that need to be ironed out but this could be our first Classic CO Low cutter of the season.

 

Edit: D**n!  This things strengthens to a 982mb beast near the U.P.!

[Tom]

12z Euro...a little warm for MN posters but these details are not important for the time being.  The key to take in from today's Euro run is that it is showing a more dynamic storm system coming out of the central Rockies and goes neg tilt while intensifying as it tracks towards the GL's.

[gabel23]

12z Euro...a little warm for MN posters but these details are not important for the time being.  The key to take in from today's Euro run is that it is showing a more dynamic storm system coming out of the central Rockies and goes neg tilt while intensifying as it tracks towards the GL's.

Just give us something to track, we are all begging of you mother nature!!! 

[Tom]

Just give us something to track, we are all begging of you mother nature!!!

Patience is paying off. If this system/track hold, I’ll be more convinced that LRC cycle #2 is about to begin.

[james1976]

Patience is paying off. If this system/track hold, I’ll be more convinced that LRC cycle #2 is about to begin.

Agreed. Def looks on par to the Oct 6-7 system. More blocking over the top could kick it more east but idk if climo would favor that.

[bud2380]

It's good to see consistency out of the Euro.  GFS is all over the place, hard to pay much attention to it here.  

[GDR]

Not sure I would call anything consistent at this time but hopefully it stays the course.

[Niko]

Cloudy, cold day today. Temps remained in the 30s. Much milder in the days to come w temps flirting w 50F.

[Niko]

Accu-Weather thinks that, dry, seasonably cold weather persists through mid December for the Midwest and Plains.

[james1976]

18z GFS tried to develop the system but then it completely fizzled out.

[Niko]

A surge of very mild air will dominate the middle of the nation come next week. Highs may approach 60F in some locales. A strong ridge developing, that's for sure.

[GDR]

Looks like the Nebraska peeps gets smacked

[jaster220]

A surge of very mild air will dominate the middle of the nation come next week. Highs may approach 60F in some locales. A strong ridge developing, that's for sure.

You could argue that we're overdue for a warm-up, but since the reversal a month ago I've been told I'd have about a week's worth of above normal days. All the touted warm-ups have been beaten back, leaving me with a handful of hours above normal. LoL

[jaster220]

Looks like the Nebraska peeps gets smacked

Do tell..our Neb peeps?

[snowstorm83]

Wow, it low 70s today in much of Western NE and up into Rapid City SD

[Niko]

You could argue that we're overdue for a warm-up, but since the reversal a month ago I've been told I'd have about a week's worth of above normal days. All the touted warm-ups have been beaten back, leaving me with a handful of hours above normal. LoL

That warm air will feel great. Bring it on! Great time to decorate the Christmas lights also.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Quick look at all the models..GFS doesn't really have a storm. The EURO has finally started to trend to the GFS but has a much deeper western trough still but as it moves east the northern stream is stronger and wins out against the southern wave. The CMC went way north with the energy into southern Canada.

[GDR]

[Tom]

This MJO pulse is really putting a wrench into the pattern.  Starting to look really warm in the extended now with a strong ridging pattern setting up in the central/east for Week 1-2 as a trough replaces the West/SW ridge.  You couldn't ask for better high latitude blocking but the spike in the WPO and relaxation of the EPO is not a good signal for colder weather.  We're probably going to see hard cutters during this period until the MJO pulse relaxes.

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  I have so much to be thankful for and a LOT to look forward to.  Hope everyone has a splendid day with family and friends.  God Bless 'Merica!  Gobble Gobble...

[Tom]

JMA weeklies look very warm over the next 4 weeks...FWIW, this model has been flipping back and forth every week so take it with a grain of salt.  I remember for November it had very warm runs and occasionally showed some cold runs.

 

 

 

JMA does agree with the high lat blocking continuing Week 2 which would argue for some room for a fight between the warmth and cold.