November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[umadbro]

Its gonna be a cold and wet huskies game! Go huskies!!

[TT-SEA]

Its gonna be a cold and wet huskies game! Go huskies!!

Seahawks game will probably be very cold and wet too.

[Geos]

Clouds are going to keep a lid on temps today, which is a good thing.

 

[wxmet]

Not much a difference between the GFS 00z and 12z as far as Seattle metro is concerned. Top-down Skew-T still looks similar aside from increased forcing in the dendritic growth zone combined with 10-20 mph winds from the North which should help support snow. Wet-Bulbling may help drop temps a degree in the lowest 25mb. 

 

[Guest happ]

Congratulations Seattle, the envy of the West.  More photos please [Tim, is your elevation above 1000'?].  

[seattleweatherguy]

As of right now how's the timing looking like. Maybe start snowing around 10pm?

[crf450ish]

You can see the warm nose on the western foothills. Although 925 temps drop after this. Hope that doesn't mess up the east side snow accumulations.  Where is snowwizard? haha 

I'm sure if he misses out on any notable accumulations he wont be upset. However if this were 2 months in the future and there was a possibility he'd miss out, I'm sure he wouldn't be happy. I doubt this winter is going to totally screw him though. 

[TT-SEA]

Congratulations Seattle, the envy of the West.  More photos please [Tim, is your elevation above 1000'?].  

 

My elevation is 1075

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows things staying coolish and unsettled throughout the run, but with no arctic air or lowland snow chances. Lots of cool zonal flow and mountain snow.

 

In my opinion it will probably be another four weeks or more until we see another flirt with arctic air or lowland snow, after this weekend. Which would be good news for those hoping for a colder midwinter again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z GFS shows things staying coolish and unsettled throughout the run, but with no arctic air or lowland snow chances. Lots of cool zonal flow and mountain snow.

 

In my opinion it will probably be another four weeks or more until we see another flirt with arctic air or lowland snow, after this weekend. Which would be good news for those hoping for a colder midwinter again.

Hopefully the blast makes it down this way. Will be interesting to see if we have a freeze before then.

[Jesse]

Hopefully the blast makes it down this way. Will be interesting to see if we have a freeze before then.

I think 90% of us have already seen one.

[wxmet]

KSEA SREF means have jumped up a bit from previous runs (latest blue). Probably due to tracking the low closer. 

http://i65.tinypic.com/10yhx5k.png

[seattleweatherguy]

The advisory says between midnight and 8am Sunday morning

[Lisa0527]

Light snow falling at UBC in Vancouver...exactly where the ECMWF says there WON’T be snow.

[TT-SEA]

12z ECMWF doesn't show much for anyone outside of the EPSL and northern counties.

Bellingham is lowland winner once again.

[wxmet]

ECMWF 12z has a lot of precip early Sunday morning. Shows temps in the upper 30s though which is probably why the snow maps are not showing snow in the WPSL.

[Timmy Supercell]

It was pretty wet here from 5am yesterday to roughly 3am this morning. It began as rain with low 40's at the start, then late morning yesterday it dropped in temps, but hovered right around 37-36 degrees for most of the afternoon. Eventually we had wet snow from 2-6pm. I think by 8pm some stuck on grass and vehicles but not really on roads, still sort of wet. Overnight I wouldn't say more than a trace for an official number. But our vehicles had 1/2" on them.

 

KLMT in this time frame recorded exactly 0.60" precipitation. Not bad.

[Jesse]

It was pretty wet here from 5am yesterday to roughly 3am this morning. It began as rain with low 40's at the start, then late morning yesterday it dropped in temps, but hovered right around 37-36 degrees for most of the afternoon. Eventually we had wet snow from 2-6pm. I think by 8pm some stuck on grass and vehicles but not really on roads, still sort of wet. Overnight I wouldn't say more than a trace for an official number. But our vehicles had 1/2" on them.

 

KLMT in this time frame recorded exactly 0.60". Not bad.

Sort of a breath of fresh air to see somebody downplay every snow event they get. I think most people here do the opposite, except for maybe Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of a breath of fresh air to see somebody downplay every snow event they get. I think most people here do the opposite, except for maybe Tim.

 

Foggy, sloppy, non-sticking snow is exactly the same as rain to me.  

[Jesse]

Foggy, sloppy, non-sticking snow is exactly the same as rain to me.

Do tell. I’m very interested. Although fair warning, I have a severe short term memory problem, so you might have to remind me again 50-100 times over the course of this winter. Might as well do the same to everyone else too, just to be safe.

[Jbolin]

Foggy, sloppy, non-sticking snow is exactly the same as rain to me.  

**** man, just move already. 

[TT-SEA]

**** man, just move already. 

 

No... my location is beneficial to my higher snow standards.   And its gorgeous out here most of the time in all seasons.   

[TT-SEA]

Do tell. I’m very interested. Although fair warning, I have a severe short term memory problem, so you might have to remind me again 50-100 times over the course of this winter. Might as well do the same to everyone else too, just to be safe.

 

Actually... you mentioned my name in your post.  

[Jbolin]

No... my location is beneficial to my higher snow standards.  

Yes, when you're either getting screwed or constantly rained on, it's a seemingly no-win situation for you no matter what. 

[crf450ish]

**** man, just move already. 

Thats what I did. I have noticed allot of people in my network complain about the winters in western wa, as well as eastern wa where I live. When I ask "have you thought about moving?", some get weird and defensive and ask me why anyone would move because of the weather. Well, that leads me to ask why they complain about their situation if they don't have any plans to change it LOL. 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, when you're either getting screwed or constantly rained on, it's a seemingly no-win situation for you no matter what.

We love it here.

[Geos]

Light snow falling at UBC in Vancouver...exactly where the ECMWF says there WON’T be snow.

 

Low resolution issues I think.

 

It didn't really show anything here for yesterday, but it snowed and stuck.

 

Up to 37. Hopefully it can stay under 40 during the day.

[snow_wizard]

As of right now how's the timing looking like. Maybe start snowing around 10pm?

 

I'm going with 4am to 11am for the East Puget Sound lowlands.  Once we are in the NW quadrant of the surface low we will be in business.  It could go to snow a bit earlier in areas north of here.

[TT-SEA]

I'm going with 4am to 11am for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Once we are in the NW quadrant of the surface low we will be in business. It could go to snow a bit earlier in areas north of here.

Don't count on much below 750 feet. Cold air will be slow to come south. Probably light rain/snow mix for most of the Seattle area during the morning and early afternoon.

[Geos]

Got 1-3" in the grid forecast for here. Noticing 3-7" for areas above 500 feet in south Bellevue right now.

 

Would be pretty epic if that was all snow.

 

[TT-SEA]

Got 1-3" in the grid forecast for here. Noticing 3-7" for areas above 500 feet in south Bellevue right now.

 

The ECMWF surface maps are so much more meaningful than grid forecasts.   The grid forecasts are basically like local media... completely worthless most of the time.   Unless the ECMWF agrees... there is no basis for the grid forecasts showing that. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF surface temperature maps show freezing low temps both Sunday and Monday nights with max temps staying below 45 through Wednesday.

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF surface temperature maps show freezing low temps both Sunday and Monday nights with max temps staying below 45 through Wednesday.

Thoughts on tonight?

[Geos]

The ECMWF surface maps are so much more meaningful than grid forecasts.   The grid forecasts are basically like local media... completely worthless most of the time.   Unless the ECMWF agrees... there is no basis for the grid forecasts showing that. 

 

Personally from experience there's pro's and con's for both. I've seen grid forecasts verify and I've seen the lower resolution global models get it right too. Personally I look at surface reports/soundings and high resolution models within 24 hours of an event.

There's definitely a micro climate up here, so while it may be rain tonight along the shores of Lake Washington, and down along 522 up here it might be 32 and snowing. There was a 4 degree difference in temperature yesterday afternoon between work and home. And that was less than 500 feet of elevation difference.

[snow_wizard]

Don't count on much below 750 feet. Cold air will be slow to come south. Probably light rain/snow mix for most of the Seattle area during the morning and early afternoon.

 

Even the ECMWF shows 925mb temps cold enough for snow by morning.  Don't underestimate the power of a low tracking like that to bring cold air in quickly.  That having been said I'm not counting on anything one way or the other.  This same pattern two weeks from now would be certain snow for everyone and this pattern has happened three times in the past 6 weeks.  It will come back soon.

[snow_wizard]

Thoughts on tonight?

 

Probably not cold enough.  We need to get into the backwash sector of the low.

[TT-SEA]

Personally from experience there's pro's and con's for both. I've seen grid forecasts verify and I've seen the lower resolution global models get it right too. Personally I look at surface reports/soundings and high resolution models within 24 hours of an event.

 

The grid forecasts should be based mostly on the ECMWF surface details.   There is not some model that is even better than the ECMWF that the NWS has access to when making those forecasts.   

 

In other words... we have access to the best possible data.   If Walter Kelly tells me Seattle will see a foot of snow and the ECMWF shows nothing than there is no basis for his forecast other than hype or a mistake.     

[snow_wizard]

Got 1-3" in the grid forecast for here. Noticing 3-7" for areas above 500 feet in south Bellevue right now.

 

Would be pretty epic if that was all snow.

 

 

Hard to imagine anyone at 500 getting that much.  You never know though.

[HighlandExperience]

Even the ECMWF shows 925mb temps cold enough for snow by morning.  Don't underestimate the power of a low tracking like that to bring cold air in quickly.  That having been said I'm not counting on anything one way or the other.  This same pattern two weeks from now would be certain snow for everyone and this pattern has happened three times in the past 6 weeks.  It will come back soon.

 

Really is a shame this didn't happen 2 weeks or more later from today. 

[Lisa0527]

Light snow in Vancouver for the last hour. Sticking but almost no accumulation.