November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[epiceast]

Low is moving onto the coast right now... north of Hoquiam.   Clearly visible on the coastal radar loop.  

Probably for the better... Everett might end up with a nice snowfall.

[FroYoBro]

That is really surprising.

East of Portland probably means Buffalo, NY.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the east wind is actually helping a bit tonight.  Still dropping very slowly here and the Fire Training Academy outside of North Bend at 1500 feet is at 32. 

[TT-SEA]

No doubt the east wind is actually helping a bit tonight. Still dropping very slowly here and the Fire Training Academy outside of North Bend at 1500 feet is at 32.

Really?

 

No effect here at all and that should be noticeable for sure.

[TT-SEA]

It was 33 and snowing here at 4 p.m.

 

34 with rain/snow mix at 8 p.m.

 

36 and raining now.

[Brennan]

Any chance moisture stretched into Northern skagit county? Painfully close

[ShawniganLake]

I just got home and it is snowing at Shawnigan. Currently 33F which is my high for the day. Driving up the hill it was mostly rain below about 400ft. Looks like about 1” of new snow here. 3.5” on the ground.

[WeatherArchive]

East of Portland probably means Buffalo, NY.

Or Pittsburgh. It looks almost like Portland including having a bunch of bridges and hills.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like temps are starting to drop sharply in the deformation band on southern Vancouver Island. Rain is changing to snow in parts of Victoria.

[snow_wizard]

Winds are starting to come from the NNE through Puget Sound as the low comes onshore.

 

Very good news to see the north winds getting so far south already.

[HighlandExperience]

Very good news to see the north winds getting so far south already.

Hope the temps drop soon. So sad to see all this heavy precipitation go to waste.

[wxmet]

The surface low is still off-shore and looks to be on track with the GFS 00z 6z position. Temps in the mid to upper 30s in the WPSL as CAA begins. 

[MossMan]

Looks like the rain is switching to snow here, temp down to 34. Down a degree over the last 40 min.

[wxmet]

Something to watch for around 16z is an area of frontogenesis stretching from Olympic Park to the Central PSL. That would be where the best banding would occur.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t00z/nam.nw.frontb16.png

[Karl Bonner]

The WRF-GFS shows quite a bit of low-level cold air east side by Tuesday morning.  Not as cold as, say, mid-November 2014...but still plenty cold to be intriguing: 

[Gradient Keeper]

The WRF-GFS shows quite a bit of low-level cold air east side by Tuesday morning.  Not as cold as, say, mid-November 2014...but still plenty cold to be intriguing: 

 

Yup. Hard freezes seem real possible away from the Gorge. 00z GFS for The Dalles has a high temp of 31 Wednesday. A decent cold pool sets up at least for a few days over the Columbia Basin. 'Tis the Season!

[Geos]

Down to 35.0 here. Precipitation has lighten up though.

[HighlandExperience]

Tweet I just got from NWS Seattle:

 

Easterlies keeping the metro area too warm right now. -11 mb helps. Northerlies on the way but it might be too late w/decrg moisture. #wawx

Ugh

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows more snow for King County than previous runs.  I'm pretty confident with this setup.

[snow_wizard]

While it's too early to tell for sure about moisture winding down, they're right about the cold air. We need to get the north wind cranking more. It's almost to -12mb. For reference, it peaked at -16mb on Friday.

 

Hopefully as the low moves onshore more the north wind will kick in a little better.

 

As I've said when we are on the NW quadrant of a surface low magic happens.  That will be in the early morning.

[snow_wizard]

I'm hoping there will be enough precip on the backside of the low later this morning.

 

That's going to be our best shot.

 

The ECMWF shows about 1/3" of water between 12z and 18z...plenty.

[Brennan]

I'm about 15 miles too far north of the northern edge of precip right now. It's creeeeeping north but at this rate won't ever make it.

[wx_statman]

Bummer about the lack of snow in Seattle tonight. Would have been too much to expect two snowfalls by November 5th!

[bainbridgekid]

Bummer about the lack of snow in Seattle tonight. Would have been too much to expect two snowfalls by November 5th!

It was a little frustrating driving home in the rain just now.

 

Then I remembered I was coming home from a Halloween party.

[Gradient Keeper]

925mb temps still too warm.

[Jbolin]

925mb temps still too warm.

+1c

[Gradient Keeper]

Rain has changed to snow in Arlington along with temp drop from 35 to 33.

[Jbolin]

Rain has changed to snow in Arlington along with temp drop from 35 to 33.

I'm not sure anyone south of Everett or below about 800 ft sees accumulating snow if any at all

[Brennan]

Snowing here in Glenhaven (south whatcom county) and 32*. Moderate snow, small flakes, grass turning white.

[Jbolin]

Winter Wx Advisory cancelled per NWS

[MossMan]

Currently have not quite an inch and 33 degrees.

[Jbolin]

NWS cancels the WWA, the wind shifts from the north and now it's starts snowing. 

******* clockwork 

[TT-SEA]

Rain/snow mix here.

 

There is obviously another low center coming onshore right now in addition to the low center that has just passed to the south of Seattle.

 

The WRF did show this... and its probably delayed the cold air that would have come south more effectively with a single and stronger low center.

 

Second low is right about over Hoquiam now...

 

 

 

High resolution WRF showed a low off the coast as well at this time:

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Warmed up nicely here over night ... A good solid rain.

[Jbolin]

Snowing here now, north wind starting to pick up as well

[TT-SEA]

Snowing here now, north wind starting to pick up as well

 

Wind switched to north now at SEA as well and temp dropped 2 degrees.

[snow maniac]

Wind switched out of the north and just like that started seeing snow flakes.

[pscz1140]

Woke up 20 minutes ago to find it snowing here with big flakes.

 

Not sticking to anything yet, not even car glass or a random squirrel.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up 20 minutes ago to find it snowing here with big flakes.

 

Not sticking to anything yet, not even car glass or a random squirrel.

 

Flakes have become huge here as well... just starting to stick.

 

The snow was coming straight down in globs but now the flakes are floating around more and the wind is clearly coming from the north which is pretty rare for my location. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA has dropped from 40 to 35 in the last 2 hours with a north wind now at 13 mph.