November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

It was a joke. We're still together and doing well. Here we are at the Eisenhower Farm in Gettysburg, PA a few weeks back...

 

 

That’s awesome. I figured.

 

Like the fedora.

[snow_wizard]

The big GOA low that had been shown in earlier model runs is completely gone now.  The pattern being shown bears no resemblance to what had been shown earlier in the week.

[snow_wizard]

Give it time, man. We'll get rid of it eventually.

 

The past is pretty clear that strong anomalous GOA ridging in Oct and Nov together leads to extremely blocked winters.

[Phil]

I'm not sold on anything worthwhile happening until mid/late December and/or January. No need to rush things...the big stuff is coming, and it will be worth the wait.

[Phil]

The early December pattern might spook some of you. It's going to be temporary.

[Jesse]

I'm not sold on anything worthwhile happening until mid/late December and/or January. No need to rush things...the big stuff is coming, and it will be worth the wait.

 

I tend to agree here. It's still nice to see a blocky Pacific maintaining itself though, even if it just brings modest cool anomalies right now.

[Phil]

I tend to agree here. It's still nice to see a blocky Pacific maintaining itself though, even if it just brings modest cool anomalies right now.

True. Don't be shocked if a GOA trough establishes during the first half of December, though. The AAM recoil via EAMT following the poleward propagating negative anomaly will perturb the zonal mass balance between Eurasia and the NPAC, extending the jet for a few weeks.

 

Then, the rubber band snaps back in a huge way during late December and/or January.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sold on anything worthwhile happening until mid/late December and/or January. No need to rush things...the big stuff is coming, and it will be worth the wait.

 

I would like to schedule the "fun" to start around December 20th.  

[Deweydog]

Christmas feels off the table. New Years too, for that matter.

 

Nothing wrong with a little backloaded nina backdoor action.

[MossMan]

I would like to schedule the "fun" to start around December 20th.

Another white Christmas would be just fine! Heavy snow falling on Christmas morning like 1990 and 2008 is absolute perfection!

[BLI snowman]

Christmas feels off the table. New Years too, for that matter.

 

Nothing wrong with a little backloaded nina backdoor action.

 

January 22.

[TT-SEA]

Christmas feels off the table. New Years too, for that matter.

 

Nothing wrong with a little backloaded nina backdoor action.

 

Duuuuuuuuuude.    Don't say that.  

[Deweydog]

January 22.

Midnight high!!!

[Jesse]

True. Don't be shocked if a GOA trough establishes during the first half of December, though. The AAM recoil via EAMT following the poleward propagating negative anomaly will perturb the zonal mass balance between Eurasia and the NPAC, extending the jet for a few weeks.

 

Then, the rubber band snaps back in a huge way during late December and/or January.

 

Sounds good. I'm optimistic but with a grain of salt. It seems like this is the most hyped winter we have seen here in a little while. I think we're all a little overconfident since last winter stayed so cold so easily. That was a huge outlier in the context of recent decades, though.

 

I think the biggest thing we're due for is a true upper level arctic outbreak. I would like to think this winter has at least an elevated chance of one of those.

[Jesse]

I would like to schedule the "fun" to start around December 20th.  

 

Family arriving that day?

[MossMan]

Christmas feels off the table. New Years too, for that matter.

 

Nothing wrong with a little backloaded nina backdoor action.

1995/96? Nice blast the second half of January 1996!

[Deweydog]

1995/96? Nice blast the second half of January 1996!

We all have to survive the 12-12-95 redux first.

[TT-SEA]

Family arriving that day?

 

Couple days later.    I love snow for Christmas and New Years regardless.   But it just makes it even more fun when there are more people to share it with... and we will be skiing so some clear, cold days would also be great.  

 

Hard to beat last year though... Christmas Day was absolutely gorgeous and we had some crazy beautiful days skiing too.

 

Christmas morning 2016:

 

12/27:

 

And then 12/28...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s awesome. I figured.

 

Like the fedora.

 

[snow_wizard]

Sounds good. I'm optimistic but with a grain of salt. It seems like this is the most hyped winter we have seen here in a little while. I think we're all a little overconfident since last winter stayed so cold so easily. That was a huge outlier in the context of recent decades, though.

 

I think the biggest thing we're due for is a true upper level arctic outbreak. I would like to think this winter has at least an elevated chance of one of those.

 

We'll see just how good my index is with this one.  According to that this winter is very likely to have some serious cold.  The only years the index is so useful is years with high pressure over the NE Pacific in Oct or Oct / Nov.  We have had that in spades this year.

[Phil]

Sounds good. I'm optimistic but with a grain of salt. It seems like this is the most hyped winter we have seen here in a little while. I think we're all a little overconfident since last winter stayed so cold so easily. That was a huge outlier in the context of recent decades, though.

 

I think the biggest thing we're due for is a true upper level arctic outbreak. I would like to think this winter has at least an elevated chance of one of those.

Good points, all around. I agree with everything you've written here.

[MossMan]

We all have to survive the 12-12-95 redux first.

Was that the awesome windstorm?

[Phil]

1995/96? Nice blast the second half of January 1996!

I'd be fine with a repeat of that winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not sold on anything worthwhile happening until mid/late December and/or January. No need to rush things...the big stuff is coming, and it will be worth the wait.

 

Very possible you are right.  I still say we will get something in December though...even if it's just a short lived cold snap with a little bit of snow.  The years I've been looking at had something worthwhile that month.

[snow_wizard]

Was that the awesome windstorm?

 

It was a bust here, but epic in NW OR.

[Jesse]

At least down here in the Portland area, I think we’ll come to appreciate January 2017 more and more as the years go by.

[Phil]

Very possible you are right. I still say we will get something in December though...even if it's just a short lived cold snap with a little bit of snow. The years I've been looking at had something worthwhile that month.

I could see that happening too. Maybe a "warning shot" around the solstice, followed by the big daddy blast in January?

 

February might be more 2007/08 esque.

[snow_wizard]

January 22.

 

I would love to see a late January event.  Those are the surest bet for snow out of any time of year.

[snow_wizard]

At least down here in the Portland area, I think we’ll come to appreciate January 2017 more and more as the years go by.

 

It was great down there, but we are still due here.  Not sure why you think we aren't going to have another great winter during this solar min.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models are somewhat interesting, not complete boredom. And this time last year we were still mired in a seemingly endless torch. 

[MossMan]

It was a bust here, but epic in NW OR.

Was pretty good up here, sat on the porch and watched all the flashes in the distance of the transformers blowing and the roar through the trees was an awesome sound! Lost power for about 24hrs.

[Jesse]

It was great down there, but we are still due here.  Not sure why you think we aren't going to have another great winter during this solar min.

 

There can be great winters without having a stand alone month with that cold of an average. It's just really hard for me to picture us pulling off another perfect storm like that for a very long time, at looking through the lens of recent decades.

 

I would love to be wrong!

[snow_wizard]

There can be great winters without having a stand alone month with that cold of an average. It's just really hard for me to picture us pulling off another perfect storm like that for a very long time, at looking through the lens of recent decades.

 

I would love to be wrong!

 

I just saw that PDX had a colder Jan than I thought last winter.  One of the coldest on record for them.  Not the case up here even though it was cold.

[Phil]

It was great down there, but we are still due here. Not sure why you think we aren't going to have another great winter during this solar min.

Solar min isn't here yet. Fluxes are low, but geomag/solar wind is still elevated, relatively speaking.

[Jesse]

The torch has almost totally disappeared on the 00z ensembles.

 

 

Will be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit.

[Gradient Keeper]

That does not look torchy! I like it!

 

In other news: Houston Rockets had 90 points at HALF TIME. 45 1st quarter, 45 2nd quarter

[snow_wizard]

The torch has almost totally disappeared on the 00z ensembles.

 

597541C2-0278-4879-BD0D-FA4F0D898F5B.png

 

Will be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit.

 

It's like that warm bubble is deflating as the time frame narrows.  As I said last night I had a hunch this would happen.

[Jesse]

It's like that warm bubble is deflating as the time frame narrows.  As I said last night I had a hunch this would happen.

You did. Good call.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's like that warm bubble is deflating as the time frame narrows.  As I said last night I had a hunch this would happen.

Yep you did.

[Front Ranger]

It was great down there, but we are still due here. Not sure why you think we aren't going to have another great winter during this solar min.

We aren't even close to the min yet. We're near 2007 levels right now.