umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it. 2004-05 esque. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Nice to see 2014 and 2004 coming up as analogs tonight. Unsung Niño heroes.ENSO = so overrated Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 After observing over the last 3 months+, I foresee a winter which resembles 04'-05'. I will elaborate in a bit but you heard it here first.We could see a January 1950 redux and you'd still sorta be correct, since Jan 2005 was THIS close to being epic. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 ENSO = so overrated Speaking of ENSO... this has become much less of an east-based Nina in the last week. Water warming off the PNW coast as well. Here is the current SSTA map: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Only got to 59F here today with plenty of sun breaks. Still felt pretty warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 That slug of rain has a whopping 0.03" with it.Udrybro? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z GFS. Definitely liking where days 8-10+ is going! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/216/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112300/264/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Pattern is perhaps still a bit too progressive on this run, but this is a step in the right direction. Let's see if there are any improvements on 00z GFS Ensembles and 6-10, 8-14 Day 500mb Composite Analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 We could see a January 1950 redux and you'd still sorta be correct, since Jan 2005 was THIS close to being epic.It really was THAT close. The first half of that January was really good up here. As good as anything we’ve seen in January in my lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Wow... went outside and the wind has picked up and its up to 67 now just ahead of the front. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Where's the latest SeaTac TTTempdate??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Where's the latest SeaTac TTTempdate??? Rain has started there... down to 61. Will the 56 hold?? Nobody knows. BLI is down to 56 now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Rain has started there... down to 61. Will the 56 hold?? Nobody knows. BLI is down to 56 now.Still 60 here! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 If the 56 holds... that will be the warmest November low in history and SEA will post an +18 for the day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I've been in the 60' for about 24 hours now. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Sitting at 76 degrees in my house and have not ran the heat all day... All the pre-prep cooking for the big day tomorrow has really heated things up. Amazing how warm it was today. Still sitting around 62 with the back slider all the way open to cool things down. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog Definite improvements noted. Not ideal yet, but it's far better than previous runs. Correlation Score needs work. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 It really was THAT close. The first half of that January was really good up here. As good as anything we’ve seen in January in my lifetime. I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over. Ladysmith had a good dump too: Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend: 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite AnalogDefinite improvements noted. Not ideal yet, but it's far better than previous runs. Correlation Score needs work. Not bad at all. Just think how crappy the GFS looked a few runs ago! Something is brewing here. At any rate the positive GOA height default is really proving itself. The 0z GFS certainly looks good for a round of hard frosts if nothing else. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over. Ladysmith had a good dump too: Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend: Wow! I knew Jan 2005 was good up there, but not that good. That came so close to being epic for all of us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I took this on the Malahat Jan 2005, I think it was pretty close to the Shawnigan exit. Almost didn't make it over. Ladysmith had a good dump too: Nanoose had a bit less, but it was super dense snow that knocked the power out all weekend: Official snow depth topped out at 2’ at Shawnigan Lake, although I remember measuring closer to 27” at the North End of the Lake. And we had 6 sub freezing highs after the snow started to fall. That top pic looks like maybe the Spectacle lake exit, just past the Shawnigan turnoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Wow! I knew Jan 2005 was good up there, but not that good. That came so close to being epic for all of us. It was a pretty impressive event in terms of snowfall, though it wasn't particularly cold at lower elevations with daytime highs near or slightly above freezing. Definitely a top tier event for some parts of the island but no 1996 or 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold. I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold. I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before.Remarkably insane. Me neither. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Meanwhile the individual CFS runs continue to show January being wickedly cold. I have never seen it latch onto something this strongly before.Yay something to look forward to. Hope it gets colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 9 MUCH stronger ridge Model comparisonLast night 00z Tonight's 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 500mb Height anomaly Last night 00zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112200/240/500h_anom.na.png Tonight's 00zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Day 10. I like where this is going http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Day 10. I like where this is going http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.pngI just got a weee bit excited!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 As DJ shared the EURO is showing all kinds of positive possibilities in the long range. I really Like the potential 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Another improving EURO run. With that block there arctic air will reach northern Washington in 11-12 days. It's likely to shift east a bit from there right into the sweet spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Jan 2005 only got ~6 or 7" of snow in Abbotsford. Not bad but not great. I guess it's better than nothing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 6z GFS in 2 hours 4 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Still 59 at SEA at midnight so looks like they pulled it out! 68/56 is all kinds of ridiculous for late November. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 The last day that was this ridculous in November was early Nov 2010. 20 days later we got slammed. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017112300/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 PDX finally topped 60 degrees at midnight. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction. 00z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs and setting up right at the sweet spot 160 W. Yet another step in the right direction. A lot to cheer about there. Ridging over the Eastern US and a lot of blockiness in general to keep the pattern from being too progressive. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 A lot to cheer about there. Ridging over the Eastern US and a lot of blockiness in general to keep the pattern from being too progressive.Yep. This is starting to look like we really may see an abrupt change arriving early December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.