Today looks to be our last chilly and dreary day with temps struggling to no higher than the mid 60's. The sun returns tomorrow. Our next chance of rain after today looks to be Wednesday night. Some lower spots could approach 80 degrees on Wednesday before we fall back to near normal temps around the mid 70's toward the Memorial Day Weekend!
Chester County wide records for today: High 95 degrees on this date back in 1962 at Devault 1W, Coatesville 1SW and Phoenixville/ Record low occurred just last year with a 29.4 degree temperature in Warwick Township (2023) / Rain 2.68" at Marshallton (2015)
I see a low of 68 coming up Tuesday night. Sheesh, it ain't June yet!
Some of the weeks this Spring are not good for those who haven't totally adjusted.
IO convection has trended stronger (and WPAC weaker) as it’s gotten closer in time. Which suggests the low frequency signal (base state) is transitioning into the E-Hem.
Though there is still an increasing WPAC component to tropical forcing over the next few weeks thanks to the MJO, so I don’t think it will fail altogether. It just doesn’t have the steroidal wave-1 signature it did before.
The MJO will propagate back to the E-Hem in June, which will constructively interfere with the developing base state, augmenting trades over the dateline/IPWP and likely forcing heavy -PNA/western trough response (a wetter/more zonal pattern compared to the current blocky/meridional one).
But the result of that is a large ridge downstream over the CONUS, which will probably expand to cover most of the lower-48 by in July. Once it gets cranking it could be difficult to contain.
Seems like this May could end up a bit wetter than the last couple out here in the Charleston CWA. Living up to its reputation for a top rainfall month on average. In 2022, July/Aug and February were my wet ones, and I remember Jan 2023 having more than 5" of rainfall. Many of last year's months ended below average on precip.
The warmest parts of the year are coming up. Looking like no more sub-50 degree lows happen until September. During the next period of warmth I even see an upper 60's low Tue night before more storms roll in.
61 right now and thick fog.
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