PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

How would you describe the situation any differently?   Decades of fire suppression and a warming climate contributing to an increase in fires.    That is hyperbole and hand waving?    Seems pretty obvious and factual to me.

Seems like natural climate cycles deserve a place here, too.

We know that there were periods in the past where the 4CH was much more dominant in the summer than we saw most the 20th century, and much worse drought throughout the west.

And weren't you the one last summer reminding people that there are accounts from PNW settlers of very smoky summers?

People assume that what they grew up with is "the norm", but reality is that it's always in flux over longer period of time. 

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m in the blue! 

Me too! 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 

All factors sure, but I don't think every cause is related to humans. That's the popular explanation offered by the media, but seems kinda self-absorbed to me. 

There are many changes that happen in the natural world that have nothing to do with humans. Just because we exert more impact now doesn't relegate those shifts to irrelevance. 

That doesn't push the climate doomer buttons quite as hard, though...

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Seems like natural climate cycles deserve a place here, too.

We know that there were periods in the past where the 4CH was much more dominant in the summer than we saw most the 20th century, and much worse drought throughout the west.

And weren't you the one last summer reminding people that there are accounts from PNW settlers of very smoky summers?

People assume that what they grew up with is "the norm", but reality is that it's always in flux over longer period of time. 

All true.   

And climate change can be the result of natural cycles and can also be human-caused.   Both are likely involved now.

[RentonHill]

12z EPS Final frame and full run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS Final frame and full run

Looks like it’s starting to retrograde. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS Final frame and full run

Looks like the ridge is trying to set up further west at the very end. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS Final frame and full run

Have I mentioned early February yet?   

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have I mentioned early February yet?   

Could end up being very similar to the timing of February 2019…but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that madness and maybe something more progressive. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have I mentioned early February yet?   

I cant tell if we are a little ahead of or behind the 2019 schedule. Or we're moving faster? idk. but i'm reading the 2019 thread again. 

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I cant tell if we are a little ahead of or behind the 2019 schedule. Or we're moving faster? idk. but i'm reading the 2019 thread again. 

It's coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d love the duration of cold we saw in 2019. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I cant tell if we are a little ahead of or behind the 2019 schedule. Or we're moving faster? idk. but i'm reading the 2019 thread again. 

Here are 5-day average charts from today and same model run in 2019. 

[Slushy Inch]

16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS Final frame and full run

Big shift towards GEFS, which also just recently started improving. Interesting trends!

[Slushy Inch]

Real chance JAN is saved from being totally crap.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d love the duration of cold we saw in 2019. 

I think it’s possible given the sustainability of some of the patterns we’ve seen over the last year. I’m gonna keep my expectations for something low and more progressive…but based on some of the chilly runs of weather we had in the spring or November/December it’s possible. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have I mentioned early February yet?   

[Slushy Inch]

And we have CFS back. When are next Euro weeklies?

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have I mentioned early February yet?   

Three weeks away!

[RentonHill]

Yikes, @BLI snowman

[Slushy Inch]

30 day average...

[Slushy Inch]

Most anticipated 0z runs tonight in the past month?

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Most anticipated 0z runs tonight in the past month?

We definitely need to see more long range ensemble runs like this for a few days before really getting interested. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Most anticipated 0z runs tonight in the past month?

I would say things were much more imminent one month ago... so probably not as anticipated as the runs were watching then.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d love the duration of cold we saw in 2019. 

That 45 day period in Feb/Mar 2019 was the most top tier winter thing the PNW has seen in our adult lives (for those of us under 50). Simply because of the duration of cold, and volume of lowland snowfall for that time period.

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We definitely need to see more long range ensemble runs like this for a few days before really getting interested. 

Yes. Until now we have just been tracking > 384 hour models.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We definitely need to see more long range ensemble runs like this for a few days before really getting interested. 

We are still a few days away from something decent showing up at the end of the EPS and that would still be 15 days away.   

Looks ripe for early February so model watching will be in high gear after the 20th!  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would say things were much more imminent one month ago... so probably not as anticipated as the runs were watching then.

I meant after that event.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 54 at SEA and 55 in North Bend thanks to a well-timed sunny period in the middle of the day and after a warm start this morning.   

[dhoffine]

Ok, can someone please remind me what happened in February 2019?  I cannot seem to remember that event at all, and I lived here lol.  I remember getting a big snow storm the day after the Super Bowl when I lived in Graham, like 15-17", but I thought that was before 2019...  I have a terrible memory.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, dhoffine said:

Ok, can someone please remind me what happened in February 2019?  I cannot seem to remember that event at all, and I lived here lol.  I remember getting a big snow storm the day after the Super Bowl when I lived in Graham, like 15-17", but I thought that was before 2019...  I have a terrible memory.

It was cold for about 6 straight weeks from early February through mid March... with many snow events.    We had 50+ inches of snow here in North Bend in that period.    It was very memorable.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, dhoffine said:

Ok, can someone please remind me what happened in February 2019?  I cannot seem to remember that event at all, and I lived here lol.  I remember getting a big snow storm the day after the Super Bowl when I lived in Graham, like 15-17", but I thought that was before 2019...  I have a terrible memory.

Pretty darn snowy especially in western WA the first half of the month. Then a big snow event down in the southern willamette valley towards the end. A very sustained period of snow and cold that lasted all the way to mid March. Probably the most sustained cold pattern of the 21st century. 

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yikes, @BLI snowman

I was right for my backyard! 2018-19 sucked hard with 2" total \_(ツ)_/

[RentonHill]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I was right for my backyard! 2018-19 sucked hard with 2" total \_(ツ)_/

wow, really? I didnt realize it was that much worse down there. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That 45 day period in Feb/Mar 2019 was the most top tier winter thing the PNW has seen in our adult lives (for those of us under 50). Simply because of the duration of cold, and volume of lowland snowfall for that time period.

 

For as great as that period was…I wonder how much better it could have been if that would have happened in the December-January timeframe. 

[RentonHill]

Some things never change. OK time to stop living in the past and do some work for a change. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

wow, really? I didnt realize it was that much worse down there. 

It was really the Portland/Vancouver area that didn’t do well. There was a huge snow event south of Portland and TWL got hit hard. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

wow, really? I didnt realize it was that much worse down there. 

It was an unmitigated screwjob here. It was like being Cooper Manning and watching your dad and brothers have HOF careers while you had to settle for being the host of a 2 minute long show.

[Tenochtitlan]

February 2019 was ultimately pretty great up here. We mostly missed out on the storms that hit Seattle from the 4th to the 9th, which was frustrating, but then got a couple big storms over the next few days while it was starting to warm up further south. The night of February 12th we got a Vancouver Island convergence zone snowfall that was especially memorable: the flakes must have been the size of half-dollars!

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It was an unmitigated screwjob here. It was like being Cooper Manning and watching your dad and brothers have HOF careers while you had to settle for being the host of a 2 minute long show.

I remember we had a inch on the 4th then about 3" with the late month stuff