PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That sounds pretty serious.  Kind of interesting how we have both reached this point so close to the same time.  For me it's been building up for years though.

It's not all about the climate,  that's part of it but I have a bunch of other reasons. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This pattern SUCKS!  Can't even manage a low below 40 right now.

At least you haven’t had a 50+ low yet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, icyasf said:

I personally don’t think I could live in a climate where snow is very common. Don’t get me wrong I love snow and cold but something about getting snow in the western lowlands just feels more exciting because it’s harder to get.

Long ago, I lived in such climates. Eventually, it got old. I think the PNW lowlands are a good compromise: mild, yet not so consistently mild that you still get the four seasons. Tried coastal California and found it monotonous.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice place. Could use some trees. 

The trees they did have behind their place up the hill burned up a few years ago. 

[Deweydog]

Our moderately-likely move to Spokane (likely on the north side) has nothing to do with weather but I certainly won’t complain.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

AK is baking so far too. Wasn't the case in 2006. Really really grim and unfortunate for all.

If I woke up from a coma and someone showed me this 500mb pattern I’d think it was a super niño.

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That sounds pretty serious.  Kind of interesting how we have both reached this point so close to the same time.  For me it's been building up for years though.

You have been talking about for the last 20 years.   Are you planning to live forever?   

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Long ago, I lived in such climates. Eventually, it got old. I think the PNW lowlands are a good compromise: mild, yet not so consistently mild that you still get the four seasons. Tried coastal California and found it monotonous.

I agree.   This climate is a good compromise.   We get cold and snow almost every winter but its also green and mild most of the time.   Crusty old snow and nose-tingling cold is annoying when it goes on for months.

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

To me there seems to be two likely outcomes for February, based on the Februarys in recent decades.

1) The forum favorite; Major cold snap. Dry, but still snowy. Notable years of this include 2021, 2011 and 1989. 

2) A more mild, wet pattern. It's a major torch pattern for the Eastern U.S though. Notable years include 2000, 1999, and 1984.

1) Has been more prevalent in recent years

However, I'm inclined to go with 2), at least for the first week. My reason is the MJO is moving through phases 1-2 right now, and by February, it will near phases 4-5, a major torching pattern for the Eastern 2/3s. After that though, it's hard to tell what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if a cold snap drops over us around Valentines day. If one does, it won't be as severe as Feb 2021. I'm not picking up on that right now.

 

That being said, this post is intended to be left in the dirt and see how it grows. I hope into a beautiful rose! They're my favorite.

I’m not sure it’ll be either of those consistently. MJO phase diagrams are deceptive at the moment since they don’t filter the low pass signal but EHEM will definitely become more active late month into February.

The big CONUS torches during the 2nd half of winter tend to happen with more of a phase 6/7 structure absent filtering, but that is what we have now and will be moving away from to some extent.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Crazy that Seattle got maybe two inches out of this. Wild

I feel so incredibly fortunate that I was just north and west of the warm nose/finger/toe whatever you want to call it the morning of the 20th. Don’t think I went above 23 degrees while just to my southeast it was cracking above freezing if I remember correctly. 

[Phil]

PNW would be perfect for me if it had a severe wx season. I need something to track year round.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our moderately-likely move to Spokane (likely on the north side) has nothing to do with weather but I certainly won’t complain.

I’m thinking of bailing to Spokane. Unless global cooling occurs. Then I’ll stay longer lol. 

[TT-SEA]

SSTA map does not look too different than one year ago.    

Last year on top and current map on the bottom.   The top map led to the hottest summer ever in western WA.

 

[Phil]

00z GFS has a much better pattern for WAFz in the LR. Will probably attack the PV real good if run forward.

Too bad it’s the GFS.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree.   This climate is a good compromise.   We get cold and snow almost every winter but its also green and mild most of the time.   Crusty old snow and nose-tingling cold is annoying when it goes on for months.

This is nothing more than personal opinion.  Some people prefer cold over warm. I am one of those people. But I also like warm days, problem with this area is it is not balanced,  getting 1 week of cold and snow is not a winter and it sucks when you love the snow. Imagine how you would feel if we only had 1 week of 80 degrees and sunny days all year, it would crush your sole. Me and Jim are much alike when it comes to winter weather and our love for it. It can really have a negative impact on quality of life.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is nothing more than personal opinion.  Some people prefer cold over warm. I am one of those people. But I also like warm days, problem with this area is it is not balanced,  getting 1 week of cold and snow is not a winter and it sucks when you love the snow. Imagine how you would feel if we only had 1 week of 80 degrees and sunny days all year, it would crush your sole. Me and Jim are much alike when it comes to winter weather and our love for it. It can really have a negative impact on quality of life.  

Its all personal opinions of course.  In an ideal world... everyone should live in a place that makes them happy.   

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

PNW would be perfect for me if it had a severe wx season. I need something to track year round.

Well there's always our now yearly smoke events.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

PNW would be perfect for me if it had a severe wx season. I need something to track year round.

If there’s one thing I miss here, it’s regular thunderstorms in the warm season. Can’t have everything.

I really am pleased with how much easier it is to score an arctic blast north of the Chuckanut Mountains. When I lived to the south, I was always envious of points north. Glad I eventually found a way to make the move work.

I really think Jim and some others here should prioritize moving east a bit, instead of just saying it will never work. Maybe it will never work, but at least try to strategize. Maybe a chance will materialize once you are more aware of what such chances look like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its all personal opinions of course.  In an ideal world... everyone should live in a place that makes them happy.   

Generally every locational gripe on this forum reeks of privilege and first world problems. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS has a much better pattern for WAFz in the LR. Will probably attack the PV real good if run forward.

Too bad it’s the GFS.

Scandi block? Lol

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Generally every locational gripe on this forum reeks of privilege and first world problems. 

Also true.    

[TacomaWx]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It did.  Just not doing it for me and several others on here though.  These bummer Januarys are getting really old.

It was pretty jimtastic weather from 11/1-12/23 Couple weeks of this lame weathers really got you down to the point you forget how good it’s already been. Not to mention every winter since 2016-2017. 

[TT-SEA]

50 degree evening here and at SEA.

Clouds and some rain approaching from the south.   

[joelgombiner]

Outside of the smoky periods, the air quality here is generally so much better than anywhere east of the Rockies. Pollution builds up as the air moves across the country, but here we get clean, fresh air blown in from the Pacific. 

[Doinko]

51/33 at PDX today. Not terrible

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SSTA map does not look too different than one year ago.    

Last year on top and current map on the bottom.   The top map led to the hottest summer ever in western WA.

 

SIOD is reversed though, which may have implications for ENSO/z-cell tendencies.

IE: The La Niña system should actually decay to neutral this spring/summer, unlike 2022. Walker Cell should broaden and relax some. Still waiting for a SPMM flip.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Outside of the smoky periods, the air quality here is generally so much better than anywhere east of the Rockies.

Outside of you-know-what, Mrs. Lincoln had a delightful evening with her husband taking in a play at Ford’s Theatre.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Scandi block? Lol

Yup that and more favorable W1 precursor pattern over the NPAC. Will need both sides working in sync to take the PV down this time.

[joelgombiner]

Water quality is another huge factor for me. Water in much of the country is pumped out of aquifers, and you can taste the mineral buildup in it. Try drinking the water in Chicago, Phoenix, etc... 

[Deweydog]

00z tries to cash in on the tail end of inversion season!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Water quality is another huge factor for me. Water in much of the country is pumped out of aquifers, and you can taste the mineral buildup in it. Try drinking the water in Chicago, Phoenix, etc... 

Chicago doesn’t tap Lake Michigan at all? That’s bizarre.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Water quality is another huge factor for me. Water in much of the country is pumped out of aquifers, and you can taste the mineral buildup in it. Try drinking the water in Chicago, Phoenix, etc... 

People who come to visit us are surprised that we happily drink water right from the faucet.   But our water here was very recently snow with no farm fields between the source and our faucet... only forests.    We are very blessed in terms of water quality.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Chicago doesn’t tap Lake Michigan at all? That’s bizarre.

Turns out it does come from Lake Michigan, but it still has an odd taste. Not sure why. Something to do with the lake chemistry or hydrology perhaps. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Water quality is another huge factor for me. Water in much of the country is pumped out of aquifers, and you can taste the mineral buildup in it. Try drinking the water in Chicago, Phoenix, etc... 

Chicago’s water didn’t taste too bad the last time I visited there, but some Sunbelt cities I’ve visited have horrible-tasting water. I'm particularly thinking of you, Santa Barbara.

The issue with hard water for me isn’t the taste, it’s how it builds up deposits on everything and makes for extra housework removing them.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Chicago doesn’t tap Lake Michigan at all? That’s bizarre.

Of course they do! They even reversed the flow of their river to protect the Lake from the urban pollution that runs into the river.

Lake Michigan water is, however, fairly hard, as a result of the limestone geology of the region and the long residence time of water in the lake. (Not as hard as the well water in that region, which is incredibly hard.)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

CFS is still brutal through mid February. It all slides east as usual.   

12z didn't seem bad to me. 

[Deweydog]

ConFlicting reportS

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Chicago’s water didn’t taste too bad the last time I visited there, but some Sunbelt cities I’ve visited have horrible-tasting water. I'm particularly thinking of you, Santa Barbara.

The issue with hard water for me isn’t the taste, it’s how it builds up deposits on everything and makes for extra housework removing them.

The water in coastal GA has weird taste too. “Ocean-flavored” is how I’d best describe it. Used to hate it but now it holds a special place in my heart.

[Phil]

Who cares what the CuckFS says? It’s useless.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

ConFlicting reportS

CFS. Can't Find Snow!