PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is she from a Francophone nation in Africa? 

Great question. Her parents are actually both American but they traveled all over the world until she was 7 or 8 She lived and was born in Cameroon (the french part) and Chad where they speak French. She also lived in Montreal but not sure how long. They lived in Stanwood-Camano close to Moss after she was 8 or so for the next 15-20years.

She's a citizen but still doesn't like big social events since she's a third culture kid who never had a birthday here until she was 8 and never lived in the US before that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Another win for Team !

 

[jakerepp]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What’s the alternative? Whining endlessly about it?

It’s not as if accepting the reality that this is not shaping up to be a cold January is causing it not to be cold.

And I decided long ago I’m going to have fun here this winter regardless of how much it snows.

Oh it certainly wasn't an indictment of anything. Just a comment about how predictable January has gotten.

[Deweydog]

Jesse did you lose power last night???

[RentonHill]

I wish the EPS weeklies would start running every day now-ish...and not later-ish. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and cloudy. Nice, cold night. Made it down to 30F.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS takes us close to the end of the month... not sure I see much in the way retrogression but other people on here are better at reading the tea leaves.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS takes us close to the end of the month... not sure I see much in the way retrogression but other people on here are better at reading the tea leaves.

In Nina years these mid-winter garbage patterns seem to last 4-6 weeks. So we are looking at a pattern change probably anywhere from the last week of January to late in the first week of February... Starting to look like it may be the latter unfortunately. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In Nina years these mid-winter garbage patterns seem to last 4-6 weeks. So we are looking at a pattern change probably anywhere from the last week of January to late in the first week of February... Starting to look like it may be the latter unfortunately. 

then probably add another week or two for anything good to develop and make it down to our neck of the woods. So third week of February is my bet?

[Cascadia_Wx]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jesse did you lose power last night???

Did not. It was calm most of the night, the wind didn’t pick up until late morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

then probably add another week or two for anything good to develop and make it down to our neck of the woods. So third week of February is my bet?

Hopefully it is earlier than that. But that seems possible. If we look at 2011, 2018, 2022 type timing then yes... 

[TT-SEA]

Spectacular January day in Seattle... currently 52 at SEA.    

[The Cats Meow]

I don't think the worm will turn in January boys.

Dang it all to heck!

Maybe February but even the first part of that month isn't looking good.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 55 now in North Bend... a bit breezy out here as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Essentially February is going to make or break this winter for Oregon/SW WA folks. If it fails then this one is going to go down as pretty disappointing. 

12z CFS is chilly for the first 10 days of February, but the high pressure sets up too far west for it to be anything more than cold onshore flow, and then flow starts turning more zonal by the 10th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After the cold November, really the only hope for January was an epic December torch. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Did not. It was calm most of the night, the wind didn’t pick up until late morning.

I had heard most of the city was out last night, but it sounds like it was a drunk driver taking out a transmission line in Orchards.

[TT-SEA]

Front window view... 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is daffodil subposting

No this is.

These f**kers follow changes in insolation more than anything. It was 6°F with -20°F wind chills a little over 2 weeks ago yet here we are.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

No this is.

These f**kers follow changes in insolation more than anything. It was 6°F with -20°F wind chills a little over 2 weeks ago yet here we are.

They sure are hardy!   I suspect ours are poking up now as well... will have to go check.

[Phil]

I’ve seen these daffodils come up around new years, get frozen solid for weeks (whether in snow or prolonged severe cold/dry/wind) and they’re just fine when it warms up again.

Basically indestructible.

[Deweydog]

I’ve recently been sleeping outside in the bark dust monitoring ours. Needed two sleepy bags last night!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Front window view... 

Pretty bleak day here. Could be any day over the past few weeks. 

 

[Phil]

Also they’ll come up later if the soil is really dry. But everything is saturated and muddy this year so plants will probably start earlier than last year.

I’d like to see at least 1 accumulating snowfall first, though. Please? So far I’ve seen one snow squall add to a trace and light snizzle shower the other night.

As of today, this winter has been even worse than 2019/20, 2012/13, and 2011/12. And that’s saying something since those are the most disappointing winters in memory for me. I don’t give a s**t about cold shots and dry wind, I want snow lol.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also they’ll come up later if the soil is really dry. But everything is saturated and muddy this year so plants will probably start earlier than last year.

I’d like to see at least 1 accumulating snowfall first, though. Please? So far I’ve seen one snow squall add to a trace and light snizzle shower the other night.

As of today, this winter has been even worse than 2019/20, 2012/13, and 2011/12. And that’s saying something since those are the most disappointing winters in memory for me. I don’t give a s**t about cold shots and dry wind, I want snow lol.

Not to rub it in…

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

I don't think the worm will turn in January boys.

Dang it all to heck!

Maybe February but even the first part of that month isn't looking good.

It’s January 10th. 

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS takes us close to the end of the month... not sure I see much in the way retrogression but other people on here are better at reading the tea leaves.

Retrogression ain’t happening this month. Thought it might have a chance before, but it’s going to take awhile to retract the jet and achieve another -EAMT/-dAAMt.

In the meantime Putin and Jinping will freeze.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Retrogression ain’t happening this month. Thought it might have a chance before, but it’s going to take awhile to retract the jet and achieve another -EAMT/-dAAMt.

In the meantime Putin and Jinping will freeze.

Just cancel winter officially already. 

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just cancel winter officially already. 

I don’t think I’ll have to. Just January doing January things.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a little lowland snow later next week with that trough... before the ridge starts building in.   Lots of mountain snow too.  

Snowier runs coming 

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think I’ll have to. Just January doing January things.

February 2011/2014/2017/2018/2019/2021/2022 repeat

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS was actually pretty darn decent. 

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS was actually pretty darn decent. 

 

In that case it probably is winter cancel. That model has negative skill.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 with some drizzle. Not really springlike. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've seen worse.

[Phishy Wx]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Interesting map. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Circa December 2013. Can't wait to have an arctic outbreak that makes the falls look like this again someday. 

[Hawksfan2008]

I’ve never craved a 300 hour pepto GFS so badly… 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

44 with some drizzle. Not really springlike. 

Interesting... we had lots of drizzle and 40s last spring and you said that was normal spring weather.