PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Time to cheer you guys up. Deepest snow pack I have had this early into a season. picked up another 14" today since 8am. another 4 feet forecast by the end of next week. 

Not sure why any of us still live in Western Washington or Western Oregon. Looks like heaven! 

[Doinko]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....but the price has been way too high since then.

Seems like they've always been kind of boom/bust. Basically nothing in 2010/2011, 4-8" in late March 2012, nothing in 2012/2013. Then 7" of snow on the ground for over a week with a 19/-10 day in December 2013 and a good 8" snowstorm on February 2014. Nothing in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Decent amount of snow in 2016/2017 (around 9" I think?). Barely anything next winter. Huge 20" snowstorm in Feb 2019, nothing in 2020/2021 and then a 10" wet snowstorm in 2021/2022.

Something that surprised me was the Eugene's highest snow depth is also higher than Portland's or Seattle's.

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Time to cheer you guys up. Deepest snow pack I have had this early into a season. picked up another 14" today since 8am. another 4 feet forecast by the end of next week. 

Historic stretch for you - congrats!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not sure why any of us still live in Western Washington or Western Oregon. Looks like heaven! 

Those pics make me claustrophobic.    No thanks!   And then knowing it will still be there in May well after we plant our garden in April.    Nope... not for me.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not sure why any of us still live in Western Washington or Western Oregon. Looks like heaven! 

Cuz we are not all millionaires. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This pattern SUCKS!  Can't even manage a low below 40 right now.

Had 32 with frost here this morning. Utterly amazing how much warmer it’s been up that way. 

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the last half could come in average or slightly below.  Big whoop even at that.

AK is baking so far too. Wasn't the case in 2006. Really really grim and unfortunate for all.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cuz we are not all millionaires. 

Way more millionaires live in the Seattle area than in Tahoe.    I am pretty sure there are way more millionaires in the Seattle area than total people living in Lake Tahoe.   Living above 6,000 feet is not ideal for most people.  

Of course there are like 20 million people living in the Mexico City area at 7,000 feet.   But latitude helps there.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Way more millionaires live in the Seattle area than in Tahoe.    I am pretty sure there are way more millionaires in the Seattle than total people living in Lake Tahoe.

A google search shows the median home price at 724K in South Lake Tahoe vs 425K in Tacoma. Sure you can find pricier Seattle suburbs, but the statement was "why doesn't everyone live there." Affordability is a big issue for a lot of people. Harsh realities dictate terms for many. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Seems like they've always been kind of boom/bust. Basically nothing in 2010/2011, 4-8" in late March 2012, nothing in 2012/2013. Then 7" of snow on the ground for over a week with a 19/-10 day in December 2013 and a good 8" snowstorm on February 2014. Nothing in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Decent amount of snow in 2016/2017 (around 9" I think?). Barely anything next winter. Huge 20" snowstorm in Feb 2019, nothing in 2020/2021 and then a 10" wet snowstorm in 2021/2022.

Yeah, even historically Eugene has been much more boom/bust than places further north.

They saw a 20 winter stretch from the early 1970s to early 1990s where they never topped 10" in a winter (that's happened 3 times the last 9 winters), but that followed an epic period from 1968-72 when they saw a 47" January (1969), 19" January (1971), and a huge snowstorm/Arctic outbreak in December 1972.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cuz we are not all millionaires. 

Average home price in King County is still about $150k higher than South Lake Tahoe.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

AK is baking so far too. Wasn't the case in 2006. Really really grim and unfortunate for all.

Uh, did you see the pics from Tahoe?

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Uh, did you see the pics from Tahoe?

Alas, Tahoe bred PNW arctic airmasses were still quite rare at last check.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Average home price in King County is still about $150k higher than South Lake Tahoe.

And yet some 2.25 million people choose to live in King County.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Average home price in King County is still about $150k higher than South Lake Tahoe.

We live in a feudal society. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Alas, Tahoe bred PNW arctic airmasses were still quite rare at last check.

Yeah, but my point was this pattern isn't terrible for everyone. And quite different than 2006...which did not feature nearly the snows in the Sierras that this January has already.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, even historically Eugene has been much more boom/bust than places further north.

They saw a 20 winter stretch from the early 1970s to early 1990s where they never topped 10" in a winter (that's happened 3 times the last 9 winters), but that followed an epic period from 1968-72 when they saw a 47" January (1969), 19" January (1971), and a huge snowstorm/Arctic outbreak in December 1972.

Hard to beat this

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet some 2.25 million people choose to live in King County.   

A good chunk of them roam the streets. Seriously though, we live in a country now where there isn't much of a middle class barely hanging on. We have median housing prices near 900K in places, while there are signs of poverty everywhere outside the gated community. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Hard to beat this

Incredible numbers. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Hard to beat this

Interesting, I either forgot or never noticed they got the second snowfall and surge of cold air after being below freezing for a week.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We live in a feudal society. 

Duluth averages out at $264k and gets waaaaaaaay better winters and summers than these West Coast posers. Although it looks like some freezing drizzle there today.

Edited January 11, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Doinko]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Interesting, I either forgot or never noticed they got the second snowfall and surge of cold air after being below freezing for a week.

I thought it was mostly a central/south valley snow event, but it looks like the Beaverton COOP station recorded 7.5" of snow that month. 4.5" of snow going into the cold and then another 3" with the second snowfall

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but my point was this pattern isn't terrible for everyone. And quite different than 2006...which did not feature nearly the snows in the Sierras that this January has already.

Historically doesn't always mean much for us. February 1998 was one of the snowiest on record at Truckee. Nino.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I thought it was mostly a central/south valley snow event, but it looks like the Beaverton COOP station recorded 7.5" of snow that month. 4.5" of snow going into the cold and then another 3" with the second snowfall

Yeah the snow was much more widespread going into the cold than the December 2013 event. Or a least the snow shield was focused further north. 

[Tyler Mode]

After a very stormy Monday at the beach, with downed trees and powerlines, today was beautiful!  Start to finish!

Pretty strong winds to take down so many trees at the coast though.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Interesting, I either forgot or never noticed they got the second snowfall and surge of cold air after being below freezing for a week.

The storm on 12/11 and 12/12/1972 was like the ultimate BC slider. Actually dropped snow all the way down to Sacramento while keeping the arctic air intact.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The December 1924 event was one of the best for December duration. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1924&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS extended supports the idea shown on the 12z CFS today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Certainly a chilly pattern, but one more maritime based. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEFS extended supports the idea shown on the 12z CFS today. 

This doesn't looks bad at all. Looks like that ridge is retrograding. SE Ridge too. Euro Weeklies also show a similar pattern, and the MJO is probably going to go into phase 2 which is cold for us. I think early February is a good bet for something decent. 

[Phishy Wx]

early-mid Feb region wide event, book it

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

early-mid Feb region wide event, book it

Yep!   Its coming.   

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep!   Its coming.   

We'll be seeing maps like this soon

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This explains what happened in January. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/how-to-think-clearly-about-climate-change.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just keeps going.

[MossMan]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A google search shows the median home price at 724K in South Lake Tahoe vs 425K in Tacoma. Sure you can find pricier Seattle suburbs, but the statement was "why doesn't everyone live there." Affordability is a big issue for a lot of people. Harsh realities dictate terms for many. 

My top area is still the Winthrop/Twisp/Carlton area! Or NE Wa. 

[Deweydog]

So many blessings upcoming. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So many blessings upcoming. 

Amen.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My top area is still the Winthrop/Twisp/Carlton area! Or NE Wa. 

The Carlton General Store just reopened last year. Real up and coming area!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't wait until we are seeing dozens of posts about the ICON and 3K NAM.