PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

PDX was 29/11 6 years ago under an inversion and Hillsboro was 25/3. Perfectly timed inversion, right after the 13" of snow.

It was nowhere near as dramatic, but when Bellingham scored a quick slushy 3" on the winter solstice in 2021, it triggered several days of cold inversion with temps way below what the models were calling for.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was nowhere near as dramatic, but when Bellingham scored a quick slushy 3" on the winter solstice in 2021, it triggered several days of cold inversion with temps way below what the models were calling for.

That inversion stretch in mid-November was also pretty nice. Got down to the low 20s a few times I think

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Chris said:

It's coming....maybe

I'm not really interested in 384 OP runs for 10mb temps; do we even know how it effects the surface?

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I'm not really interested in 384 OP runs for 10mb temps; do we even know how it effects the surface?

[TT-SEA]

57/43 at SEA today... good for another +7 on the day and puts January around +4.0 so far nearing the half-way point.  

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

57/43 at SEA today... good for another +7 on the day and puts January around +4.0 so far nearing the half-way point.  

I'm surprised it's been that warm there. 49/43 at PDX and a +2.3 departure for the month so far.

[TacomaWx]

56/40 today. 3rd +55 high this month and 5th +50 high. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

57/43 at SEA today... good for another +7 on the day and puts January around +4.0 so far nearing the half-way point.  

+2.4 here. The first 4 days of the month were just a bit above normal but the last week has been very warm. 

[RentonHill]

The year over year volatility of Portland's average August temperature over time

[PuyallupChris]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

It was really the Portland/Vancouver area that didn’t do well. There was a huge snow event south of Portland and TWL got hit hard. 

This is the first time I realized why people called my area The Swamp. Just down the hill in Puyallup it was still a good event, but we got much less than everyone just a few miles in any direction.  I seem to remember like 14"+ south towards Graham and North toward Federal Way, but maybe 6 inches here.  Seems like a lame move to be grumpy about 5-6 inches of snow, but hearing the entire region call it a legendary, once in a century storm while we got a pretty traditional snowfall was particularly annoying. 

Then I realized that happens a lot here. Woops. My wife says we're in some kind of bowl where we get neither snow, nor cell phone reception despite being in a busy suburban neighborhood 5 minutes from a shopping mall. 

[joelgombiner]

1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I'm not really interested in 384 OP runs for 10mb temps; do we even know how it effects the surface?

Sometimes it affects the surface and sometimes it doesn't, according to NOAA stratosphere expert Amy Butler. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex

According to NOAA stratosphere expert Amy Butler, people often confuse the polar vortex with the polar jet stream, but the two are in completely separate layers of the atmosphere. The polar jet stream occurs in the troposphere, at altitudes between 5-9 miles above the surface. It marks the boundary between surface air masses, separating warmer, mid-latitude air and colder, polar air. It’s the polar jet stream that plays such a big role in our day-to-day winter weather in the mid-latitudes, not the polar vortex.

The polar vortex and our winter weather

The polar vortex doesn’t always influence winter weather in the mid-latitudes. When it does, however, the effects can be extreme. When the polar vortex is especially strong, for example, the polar jet steam tends to stay farther north and to exhibit a more zonal flow, with less meandering. At the surface, this stable stratospheric state is often associated with an even colder than usual Arctic, and milder-than-usual weather in the mid-latitudes. The Arctic Oscillation, which tracks hemisphere-scale wind and air pressure patterns, is often positive.

On the other hand, she said, plenty of Arctic cold air outbreaks happen in a given winter without any help from the polar vortex. Not to mention, sometimes the polar vortex is disrupted and there are few, if any, impacts on the weather down at the surface.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, PuyallupChris said:

This is the first time I realized why people called my area The Swamp. Just down the hill in Puyallup it was still a good event, but we got much less than everyone just a few miles in any direction.  I seem to remember like 14"+ south towards Graham and North toward Federal Way, but maybe 6 inches here.  Seems like a lame move to be grumpy about 5-6 inches of snow, but hearing the entire region call it a legendary, once in a century storm while we got a pretty traditional snowfall was particularly annoying. 

Then I realized that happens a lot here. Woops. My wife says we're in some kind of bowl where we get neither snow, nor cell phone reception despite being in a busy suburban neighborhood 5 minutes from a shopping mall. 

We had 22” of snow here during 4 separate snow events. We picked up 2” of snow on 2/4. Then 9” 2/8-2/9 which was the biggest snow. We picked up 5” of snow in just 2 hours on the night of 2/10. That night @MR.SNOWMIZER also had thundersnow. The overrunning event was heavier than expected with another 6” on 2/11. The snow stuck around here until late February…then we had some more snow in early March! 

[TacomaWx]

Pretty ridiculous ride 

2/3  39/31 snow TR.

2/4  30/19 snow 2”

2/5  32/21

2/6  35/21

2/7  37/23

2/8  35/30 snow 5”

2/9  31/27 snow 4”

2/10 32/16 snow 5”

2/11 36/29 snow 6”

2/12 38/36

2/13 38/32

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feb 1 regional snowstorm begins. Or maybe a Phil Connors-style blizzard on Groundhog Day from MFR to SEA.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feb 1 regional snowstorm begins. Or maybe a Phil Connors-style blizzard on Groundhog Day from MFR to SEA.

GEEFS Control tonight is straight

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

I'm surprised it's been that warm there. 49/43 at PDX and a +2.3 departure for the month so far.

48/42 day here after a 50/32 yesterday. On the mild side but nothing too crazy. Grass is still brown.

[snow_wizard]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff says La Nina is about done...

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/la-ninas-days-are-numbered.html

We'll see.  Still a lot of indicators showing it being well in control.  In this case we have warming sub surface ocean temps, but an MJO wave emerging in La Nina's wheelhouse.  Could be a false alarm like last year.  Obviously the odds are in favor of the La Nina giving out, but no way to be sure yet.

[snow_wizard]

The models seem to be more excited about some potential chilly weather later this month on the last few runs.  Even next week looks reasonably cool now.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly nothing here to show La Nina is done yet.

[snow_wizard]

First IO MJO wave in quite some time.  VERY Nina friendly.

[MossMan]

Another awesome looking sky for my drive home this evening. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Inversions, like ice storms, get very little love here. It has always struck me as unfair.

I like them.  As I've said many times some of our coldest winters are a nice mix of real and fake cold.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Certainly nothing here to show La Nina is done yet.

Looks like its on an upward trajectory.   The same image was used in the post about Nina fading.  

Either way... we have had 3 Nina summers in a row now and each one has been hotter.   

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its on an upward trajectory.   The same image was used in the post about Nina fading.  

Either way... we have had 3 Nina summers in a row now and each one has been hotter.   

Yup.  Not sure what it would take to make this summer cooler.

The point I was making is we had a spike at this time last year as well.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its on an upward trajectory.   The same image was used in the post about Nina fading.  

Either way... we have had 3 Nina summers in a row now and each one has been hotter.   

It looks like we’re on track for neutral conditions by March. We will see if next year is neutral or El Niño. Either way anything can happen in any given year as witnessed in 2019. 

[Gummy]

I am fine with a neutral spring with hopefully more seasonal temps than last year. That was painful.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  Not sure what it would take to make this summer cooler.

The point I was making is we had a spike at this time last year as well.

Ahhh... I see that earlier spike now.   But for it to crash that fast again last spring was very unusual.   Some think it might have been related to the Tonga eruption.    I certainly would not be counting on that happening again in the same way as it did last year.   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

I am fine with a neutral spring with hopefully more seasonal temps than last year. That was painful.

Could not agree more.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just tried out a battery powered leaf blower I got for Christmas……. Yea I’ll stick to gas powered ones lol

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just tried out a battery powered leaf blower I got for Christmas……. Yea I’ll stick to gas powered ones lol

Leaf blowers are too noisy. 

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Just tried out a battery powered leaf blower I got for Christmas……. Yea I’ll stick to gas powered ones lol

The gas ones put out way more air flow, and the landscaping industry is utterly dependent on them for leaf clean-up. Will be interesting what happens in 2025 when contractors will be banned from using gas ones in Seattle as planned https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-city-council-approves-plan-to-ban-gas-powered-leaf-blowers/. Either the battery ones need to improve a lot, or the good 'ol rake is making a comeback! And landscaping rates will go up because it takes more time to clean a property with a rake, broom, and electric blower. 

[joelgombiner]

Most landscapers just blow leaves into the street, where they're ground into a muddy pulp. One of the reasons the streets are such a mess. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Most landscapers just blow leaves into the street, where they're ground into a muddy pulp. One of the reasons the streets are such a mess. 

I notice a lot of homeowners will blow grass/leaves/clippings right out into the street when mowing or blowing…Drives me INSANE! I guess nearly 20yrs of working grounds at a golf course and a large retirement community it’s etched in my brain that clippings are NOT to be blown onto the pavement or cart paths, etc. super ugly plus it’s highly dangerous for motorcyclists. I call it extreme laziness. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by MossMan

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The gas ones put out way more air flow, and the landscaping industry is utterly dependent on them for leaf clean-up. Will be interesting what happens in 2025 when contractors will be banned from using gas ones in Seattle as planned https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/seattle-city-council-approves-plan-to-ban-gas-powered-leaf-blowers/. Either the battery ones need to improve a lot, or the good 'ol rake is making a comeback! And landscaping rates will go up because it takes more time to clean a property with a rake, broom, and electric blower. 

If they can make a powerful electric blower that equals my gas powered one with a battery that will last longer than 10 minutes I would be open to getting one. Until then…Gas for me! 

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I notice a lot of homeowners will blow grass/leaves/clippings right out into the street when mowing or blowing…Drives me INSANE! I guess nearly 20yrs of working grounds at a golf course and a large retirement community it’s etched in my brain that clippings are NOT to be blown onto the pavement or cart paths, etc. super ugly plus it’s highly dangerous for motorcyclists. I call it extreme laziness. 

I feel the same way about it! I think it comes down to economics as well as laziness. Landscapers want to make money, and the customers don't want to spend that much money on leaf clean-up. This results in the "mow and blow" operations that dominate the industry, where a couple guys blast the place clean in about 15 minutes (and essentially move the problem somewhere else, rather than fixing it). Classic externalized cost.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

GEFS long ranger

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

GEFS long ranger

 

Even better than the last run. Strong signal too

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Inversions, like ice storms, get very little love here. It has always struck me as unfair.

It was kind of awesome the morning of 12/23 when everything had an icy glaze on it…A type of color tinge I usually never see. 

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That's what I like to see.

I'd take a bday cold snap (1/24)

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'd take a bday cold snap (1/24)

Same day as my mother in law’s.