PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

End of the EPS still looked like this on Jan 17 2019. But it seems like the big sticking point which slowed things down then was Phil stuff about the IPT/IO/MJO/Intraseasonal forcing/subsidence/Nino plus a solid Hudson Bay Vortex/no eastern blocking in place. As far as I can tell, all the former stuff was in our favor this year and there's been solid -NAO for a while, so there's potential for this to move along quicker? Please, someone speculate with me.

 

SE Ridge!

[RentonHill]

11 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS vs CMCE at the end of the run. lol

Still true for 00z runs

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Still true for 00z runs

But an obvious trend west on CMC ENS.

[Doinko]

Went back to last January as well and early February. GEFS got the Late Feb cold wave pretty well, just a few days early.
 

On 2/1/2022 at 8:01 AM, RentonHillTC said:

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Went back to last January as well and early February. GEFS got the Late Feb cold wave pretty well, just a few days early.
 

 

God that was such a letdown. Wanted it to be another 2019 but after our late December action it was too much to ask. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

God that was such a letdown. Wanted it to be another 2019 but after our late December action it was too much to ask. 

It was a decent airmass at least. Coldest airmass at Salem besides February 2018 (-10.5) since December 2013, though it was as cold as December 2016 (-10.1) for 850mb temps there. We kind of got snowholed in December as well, more snow to the south and north. Our biggest snow event that winter was 2" in April

[Slushy Inch]

OP Euro improvements.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Somebody throw a fish in the tank... @Deweydog is late publishing his newsletter and i'd like his updated thoughts on where we stand.

We’re making the 20-31st our b*tch…… starting on the 27th. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

49F and some much-needed rainfall.

[Deweydog]

56 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably something along the lines of "white MLK day delayed again, looks 2006ish BUT it's still coming as long as the stratosphere has a heat stroke and my wife sends me to Costco to replace the snow shovel".

White MLK day sounds racy.  

[snow_wizard]

RIP Jeff Beck.

Another guitar god from the British Invasion passed away today.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

White MLK day sounds racy.  

This forum will undoubted be censored and cancelled.

[Deweydog]

[RentonHill]

EPS has our ridge settling in nicely at day 10. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS has our ridge settling in nicely at day 10. 

Would love to see comparison to 12z.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Would love to see comparison to 12z.

 

[RentonHill]

Day 12 vs 12z

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

Definetly a notch better. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Day 12 vs 12z

Baby steps.

[RentonHill]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Baby steps.

maybe not better/faster, but it's more conviction in the current progression which isnt bad. 

[RentonHill]

Piggyback/retro showing up around hr330/Day 13.75

[RentonHill]

Day 14 vs 12z

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 14 vs 12z

That's a pretty big change in agreement for just one run, and looks a bit faster too

[RentonHill]

Day 15.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift?

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

[RentonHill]

Who's going to be downtown tomorrow or friday? hit me up

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

Got a 6am meeting so naw unfortunately 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Who's going to be downtown tomorrow or friday? hit me up

Let’s set a forum meet up like next Friday night after work or something 

Edited January 12, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Let’s set a forum meet up like next Friday night after work or something 

Regional event?

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Regional event?

What’s the closest bar to Olympia airport?

[NWbyNW]

26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

What’s the closest bar to Olympia airport?

A place called Inferno's.

[NWbyNW]

Rain coming down around much of the region.  Nice to see snow falling in the Cascades!  Some strong bands of rain on the WA/BC border! 

[NWbyNW]

I did not take this photo.  It is of Washington's Cape Disappointment from an article on KOMO.  They were talking about the wave warnings along the Pacific and gale force winds going on the next few days.  Not sure if it's a new photo but they hinted it was, saying it was a submission from a KOMO Watcher. It's pretty amazing seeing those waves like that.  An angry sea.

[snow_wizard]

EPO -2 and PNA -1 at the end of the 0z EPS.  So it begins!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a terrible GFS run. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... it has rained almost every day this month but SEA is only at 50% of normal rainfall.     And the last part of the month will likely be fairly dry with more blocking.