Niko Posted November 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 That is one juicy storm and whoever falls into that system will score big-time! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Take it with a Costco bag of salt: gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh312-384.gif Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho??? Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Isn't that about what the Christmas '09 bliz did tho??? Fun to see the GFS finally toss a long ball and go gonzo with a storm in the long range..been waiting for that tbh. Now that was fun, back to reality..Actually yes, almost the exact same track with the retrograde back to the west a little bit; just like the 6z showed. We just need something to track, I like the nice weather but bring on winter already!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 It'll probably end up burying Chicago in the end like every other storm does. Can you image if you added in the enhancement off of Lake Michigan? You can't blame Tom if it happens, cuz Joe D. called it today. Tom will be an innocently #buried bystander! (he has a hidden snow magnet btw) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Big change next week from what I am seeing from the models. By mid week IMBY, temps really start dropping. Although, they have dry conditions along w the cold, which, on my end, finds it to be dull. We need "White Powda" to go along w it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 You said "just gimme something to track"..lol @ the GFS for hearing you and saying "Track this!" Hehehe. At this point I will take it. Sure it might disappear on 12z but just seeing a snow signature this season seems to be pleasing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 There is some serious cold on the GFS from the day 10-15 time period. Highs across the midwest mostly in the teens and 20s. That will be a major shock after the 50s, 60s, and even 70s as of lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 That mid month system has my name on it too. Same scenario as first week of October and then mid October. Blocking was really late, pattern hadn't regressed at all then. Got a strong feeling that blocking won't be late this time. Both storms look like they'll run from near me to the GLs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The 12z loses it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The 12z loses itThanks for the update. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Not sure how anyone here can be happy with how next week is turning out. Its going back to the NW fliw pattern western ridge. 3rd time its transitioned that way and its a scary trend if any of us want a big storm. GFS doesn't look overly bad, actually. There's quite a few storms that are still showing up, it's just that it has the northern stream flattening all of them, which is overdone. How do I know? Great question! I don't, actually. But the likelihood of that holding up for a week straight with what would be a parade of storms seems over the top. But to reiterate, at this point, it doesn't even matter, GFS is flip-flopping more than Brett Favre did on retiring. It'll come back again. The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 The real-deal systems are way too far out for any consistency. This going to be bouncing around for a long time yet, from mega-bliz to complete whiff. Y'all better be current on your Valium med's out there - you're gonna need it for this ride Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Yeah. Next 3 days is gonna be pretty bumpy for a lot of people in model world, then the next 4 after that. And add another 7 more. After that is when I think the fun will start or at least get a little more consistency In the modeling world. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms. Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Yeah, atleast he didn't rule it out, just said it was uncertain if there will be any. I honestly think it will be cold and dry for the Plains while Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan start to get clippers and then it builds south from there. If that's the case, then give me what we have right now lol I'll take warm and dry over frigid cold and dry.I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 I think you mentioned in an earlier post the northern stream and nw flow is just to strong to get anything to form out of the southwest. So we get dry clippers or maybe some flurries and then stuff gets better organized/more moisture to our east. Yeah, that's just what it looks like tbh. I underestimate the powerfulness of that ridge down there, think about how much it dominated California a few years ago and gave them the worst drought in history. To think that it won't stick around, or atleast consider it is foolish imo, so I guess with my forecasts, long-range anyways, always gotta factor that spinning dirtball down there in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 This was posted by a meteorologist earlier today. Talks of the cold pattern coming mid month, but not conducive to big storms.Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point.GFS goes full send in Oklahoma and Texas, then it gets ridiculously cold it looks like. Definitely a plausible outcome /s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 28, 2017 Report Share Posted November 28, 2017 Guess everyone here thought it wasn't going to happen...that the low completely cuts itself off and now look, it was a trend lol. Still time for change obviously but thats dwindling Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Someone may score something out of that system next week but my eyes are set on Dec 10th or so and after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Bottom drops out by mid month. Hope we can score some clippers. That looks like a powerful arctic flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Tons of probabilities here but likelihood is that, with the deepening just south of the Aleutians, the trough over the central CONUS is deeper and has much more energy than shown. Plenty of heat West of Baja and in the GOM offer potential for a much stormier outcome from my area to the GLs-East/NE than what many are willing to lend their opinion to at such an early point. Every HP center has been further south and stronger than mid-range modelling has shown since the end of August. At this point (way way early still), expecting that trend to continue. The Euro problem of overcoming mountains and and the GFS problem of blowing storms out ahead of the cold on the southern end give me more of a desire to blend the 2 outcomes at this point. The low isn't going to sit that long in the SW (Euro) and it isn't going to outrun the cold HP sitting over top of it. (GFS) Reality is likely in the middle and that looks pretty good from here.Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Dude! Kudos on the excellent pattern recognition. These models are catching tiny glimpses at this range, but we're several days from anything that makes sense. But the known biases are still in play. The good trends earlier this autumn for systems phasing should continue imho What's crazy is that there's a second system up the pipe somewhere 4-5(ish) days after the first one and there's really no telling what is going to happen with that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Man, its going to get mighty cold next week, especially, by the weekend. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 ROTFLMAO GFSCGP_prec_kuchsnow_384.png I love the 57" it shows in Sioux City. Of course Lincoln has to get the shaft and ONLY 19"!snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 snow hole in cedar rapids /iowa city lolThats usually over Omaha don't worry lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 The 0z GFS continues with the weakening of the southwest cut off low. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 00z GGEM... Edit: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Hitting the sack, been a crazy day with work and I'm beat. Enjoy the rest of the evenings model runs...they will consistently, be inconsistent, if you consistently continue to monitor them...lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 LOL Tom. I was just about to post that. When I saw the CMC my reaction was like this : 3 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 GFS continues with the arctic push. Some mighty cold air. Gonna be like Nebraska for a lot of us if moisture doesn't show up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 Some members of the GEFS shows a track like the CMC. Now i am intrigued to found out what the EURO says. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 The EURO is out and while it doesn't dig a low in the southwest, it also doesn't cut off either. Has a storm but pretty weak. At least its a step in the right direction; 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 The EURO is out and while it doesn't dig a low in the southwest, it also doesn't cut off either. Has a storm but pretty weak. At least its a step in the right direction; Yeah. Needs a bit of work. This really is going to be a tough storm for the models forecast up until right before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2017 Report Share Posted November 29, 2017 00z EPS showing more members hinting at a CO Low that tracks up towards the GL's and strengthens. It's showing the 2 pieces of energy with one tracking through the Dakotas and the secondary piece over CO/KS that eventually phase into a strong GL's storm. Need to keep an eye on that southern energy because this season we have seen this being the main player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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