December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Minny_Weather]

Are you really gonna prop up a coating of snow as an actual accumulation? And your cold wave is looking hella lame. Total weak sauce. Nov 2014 was colder than that looks to be. Wow a day with a high below 30. Like we don't get a few dozen of those every winter.

 

 

Today

Sunny, with a high near 51. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. South southeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Wednesday Night

A 20 percent chance of rain after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Thursday

A chance of rain before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of snow and freezing rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A chance of snow and freezing rain before 11pm, then a chance of snow between 11pm and midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 29.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 25.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Christmas Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

[Snowlover76]

Those highs will go up. The nws is always behind. I go by my Wunderground forecast.

[bud2380]

In other news, the Sun has reached the 100th day without sunspots...

 

What is the significance of this?  I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc.  

[Tom]

Presume you meant the 17-18th system because the actual last 7 days of November after that system, we got mild  dry and sunny starting about the 23/4th depending on Neb or Mich?

No, I wish I saved the 500mb maps around Nov 28th showing a closed circulation of energy that tracked due west/east out of the 4 corners across the TX Panhandle/OK/MO/AR region.  It weakened considerably bc it was fighting the ridge, but I do not think this happens late month, esp if teleconnections favor more blocking as they are now sorta hinting at.

[Tom]

What is the significance of this? I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc.

Well, it certainly shows that we are heading towards a solar minimum over the next couple years. Next year we may double the amount of days with zero sunspots. With low solar sun spots, we have less radiation coming into our atmosphere. The sun is a big driver of our climate and data shows that the years of low solar, we have more likelihood of high latitude blocking. More so next year and the following 2-3 years though. This year may just be a precursor of the next few winters.

[jaster220]

What is the significance of this?  I don't know much about sunspots and how it relates to our weather, etc.  

 

I'll try..others can correct if I'm off the mark

 

Low sunspots indicate a quiet sun, and a colder sun. Relating to our wx, it's more like a back-drop scenario. A colder back-drop timed with other pattern inputs can yeild a much colder outcome than when the sun is active and contributing a warmer back-drop. In really active decades, the sun's activity can even mute or offset cold inputs from other sources. In equation form, a negative + a negative = more negative. 

 

Low or NO sunspots = colder practical wx chances increase, or at least aren't harmed

[Minny_Weather]

Snow here on the 28th would be an absolute worst case scenario. I have to fly back here that day.

[Niko]

Feels great outside. Currently in the 40s w sun & clouds.

[jaster220]

Feels great outside. Currently in the 40s w sun & clouds.

 

Seems premature, but IWX already hoisted a SWS for the brutal cold expected at/after Christmas Day. Now we just need the other ingredients to get in the mix for more SWS headlines. Kinda curious to see how CPC leans with this period when they release today's map(s). As of yesterday, they had the cold staying well west of MI. We never get as cold thx to the lakes, but what hits northern counties of IWX is basically my forecast as well..

 

6 days out - can't say if I remember any headlines that far out tbh. Not local anyways, that kinda tramples on CPC's d3-7 hazard threat range, just sayin'

 

1228 PM EST Tue Dec 19 2017 /1128 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017/ ...Very Cold Air Likely for Christmas Day into Middle of Next Week... It appears likely that a significant outbreak of arctic air will occur over the Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, which includes Christmas day. Temperatures are expected to become colder over this coming weekend but the coldest temperatures are currently expected Christmas Day through Wednesday of next week. High temperatures will likely only be in the teens and low temperatures in the single digits. It is possible that low temperatures could drop below zero while high temperatures remain in the single digits, especially in areas that will have snow on the ground by next week. Wind chills are also expected to be below zero and possibly well below zero at times. Those planning travel around the Christmas holiday should be thinking about preparing a survival kit with blankets, food and water in case of a breakdown. Monitor upcoming forecasts for updates and changes since it is several days away. More information can be found online at www.weather.gov/iwx . $$

 

[Niko]

Seems premature, but IWX already hoisted a SWS for the brutal cold expected at/after Christmas Day. Now we just need the other ingredients to get in the mix for more SWS headlines. Kinda curious to see how CPC leans with this period when they release today's map(s). As of yesterday, they had the cold staying well west of MI. We never get as cold thx to the lakes, but what hits northern counties of IWX is basically my forecast as well..

It gets brutal next week. I am thinking that things get very interesting by weeks end. CPC will be interesting to see by the later pm hr, for sure.

[Tom]

By the end of the year, both 12z EPS/GEFS mean have nearly every single member on here covered with a snow pack.  Incredible turnaround if that happens.  Even if 70% of our members have snow OTG by year's end.

[Snowlover76]

Trend is holding on to the cold for next week moderating more and more.

 

 

Oh well. Beat goes on

[Minny_Weather]

Trend is holding on to the cold for next week moderating more and more.

 

 

Oh well. Beat goes on

What secret set of models are you looking at? I want them.

[Minny_Weather]

The Euro is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on the 28th system. Near 20" values in E KS/W MO. Probably just a one-run wonder but god it is such good eye candy. It'd be even better if that bullseye moved North.

[hlcater]

The Euro is cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs on the 28th system. Near 20" values in E KS/W MO. Probably just a one-run wonder but god it is such good eye candy. It'd be even better if that bullseye moved North.

Not this far out, its good where it is until day 5.

[NEJeremy]

Sigh..... This party sucks. I guess a tenth or two of an inch would double or even triple our snowfall for the month!

 

..Our new forecast has significantly reduced precipitation
chances and amounts Thursday...

Nearly zonal flow continues across the forecast area with a strong
closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Continued mild and dry
conditions are expected through Wednesday as southerly return flow
strengthens over the Central Plains.

The above mentioned Pacific Northwest low will quickly drop into
the Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon and begin to shear
out as it moves into the High Plains producing a split-flow
pattern across the central CONUS. Although we will have some mid-
level frontogenetical forcing across the area, the bulk of our
strong vertical motion for ascent is no longer in place due to
split flow pattern. In addition, the moisture in place looks
limited across our area and therefore we have reduced overall
precipitation chances and dropped amounts significantly. The cold
air will still be arriving, changing any drizzle over to freezing
drizzle as no ice crystals look to be present in the cloud layer.
Some light snow remains possible as the colder air sinks south,
especially along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Storm total snowfall
amounts look like less than a half inch at the highest in our
north to a tenth or two as far south as I-80. Strong cold-air
advection is still expected with gusty north winds dropping temps
quickly through the day Thursday. Wind chills by evening should be
in the single digits in our northern counties to the teens in our
south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through the
Christmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early next
week. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatures
looks possible by mid-week.

[Snowlover76]

Sigh..... This party sucks. I guess a tenth or two of an inch would double or even triple our snowfall for the month!

 

..Our new forecast has significantly reduced precipitation

chances and amounts Thursday...

 

Nearly zonal flow continues across the forecast area with a strong

closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Continued mild and dry

conditions are expected through Wednesday as southerly return flow

strengthens over the Central Plains.

 

The above mentioned Pacific Northwest low will quickly drop into

the Four Corners region by Thursday afternoon and begin to shear

out as it moves into the High Plains producing a split-flow

pattern across the central CONUS. Although we will have some mid-

level frontogenetical forcing across the area, the bulk of our

strong vertical motion for ascent is no longer in place due to

split flow pattern. In addition, the moisture in place looks

limited across our area and therefore we have reduced overall

precipitation chances and dropped amounts significantly. The cold

air will still be arriving, changing any drizzle over to freezing

drizzle as no ice crystals look to be present in the cloud layer.

Some light snow remains possible as the colder air sinks south,

especially along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. Storm total snowfall

amounts look like less than a half inch at the highest in our

north to a tenth or two as far south as I-80. Strong cold-air

advection is still expected with gusty north winds dropping temps

quickly through the day Thursday. Wind chills by evening should be

in the single digits in our northern counties to the teens in our

south.

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

 

A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through the

Christmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early next

week. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatures

looks possible by mid-week.

At least you speak it real.

[Money]

Stop whining

 

My god

[NEJeremy]

Stop whining

 

My god

I don't recall this being addressed to you. There's a neat little feature called "Ignore", if my posts trigger you so much  

[GDR]

Texas gets blasted again on the 18z gfs crazy stuff!!

[Snowlover76]

Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a joke

[WBadgersW]

Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a joke

Sounds beautiful actually. If there's no snow then make it so you can enjoy the warmth.

[Andrew NE]

Gonna be close to 40 now on Xmas. Lol. What a joke

Where are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20?

[Minny_Weather]

Where are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20?

He sits in his room all day and makes models which show torches.

[Minny_Weather]

This is OAX's long-term AFD. They are getting more and more ridiculous. And this is coming from one of the better forecasters too.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

A broad upper-level trough will persist over the region through the
Christmas weekend allowing continued cold temps into early next
week. As ridging builds to our west, some moderation in temperatures
looks possible by mid-week.

 

[Andrew NE]

This is OAX's long-term AFD. They are getting more and more ridiculous. And this is coming from one of the better forecasters too.

Yea I saw that. To there defense, their job since after the first week of Oct has pretty much been auto pilot. Warm, breezy, and a 20% chance of .02" rain. Haha. They are probably so bored with this pattern.

[Minny_Weather]

Yea I saw that. To there defense, their job since after the first week of Oct has pretty much been auto pilot. Warm, breezy, and a 20% chance of .02" rain. Haha. They are probably so bored with this pattern.

DEE, one of my least favorite forecasters from there, literally just said "mild and clear weather is expected" for his LT AFD once last year. I wish I was on here when that happened, that was a classic.

[Snowlover76]

Where are you getting a high of 40 on xmas at? Everywhere I looked has it around 20?

Wunderground app

[Minny_Weather]

Wunderground app

Less reliable than actual people who are looking at models and are familiar with local areas.

[Money]

Oh look

 

Gfs hammers NE on the 28th

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The CMC and GFS are really ramping things up here mid-late next week. 

 

GFS

 

 

CMC

 

[Money]

It literally snows for nearly 3 days in NE/KS/IA on the gfs

[westMJim]

Here in my area there is a lot of bare ground now showing. This could be a snow pile Christmas. That is a lot of bare ground but still snow piles around sort of like mid March. Still 35° here so the melting continues.

[hlcater]

It literally snows for nearly 3 days in NE/KS/IA on the gfs

That setup, as displayed on the GFS verbatim, screams big dog to me. 1055mb high pressure decending out of canada and interacting with storm system ongoing over the midwest. Would form quite the temp/wind gradient that a storm could feed on.

[Money]

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2017122000&fh=228&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Nearly everyone in our subforum gets hit over the next week or so

[Minny_Weather]

I moved my flight back to Omaha to the 27th instead of the 28th because of this potential storm. No change fee cuz it's Southwest, and it doesn't really matter what day I fly back anyway. The idea of being stuck in Phoenix because of a storm I'm missing just doesn't sound intriguing.

 

Of course, since we're the bullseye now, and I'll be here, the storm will go away.

[bud2380]

Sweet. Can’t wait to track this next can’t miss guaranteed to snow imby storm. Actually i am glad to see it but hard to get at all excited yet.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol this is beautiful brings tears to my eyes

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017122000/204/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Grizzcoat]

The UK MET is also showing the above mentioned system at HR 144 in its infancy. All 3 models have it. On to the KING. - edit- which also has it. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The UK MET is also showing the above mentioned system at HR 144 in its infancy. All 3 models have it. On to the KING. 

Can you post it?