TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 The WRF is terrible with inversions. It was way too warm today. Not here and not in Seattle. It was right on target today... upper 40s to around 50 (it was 50 at UW in Seattle). And it is usually pretty bad but has been doing well this week. The ECMWF does much better and it shows the next couple days being warmer and better mixed. Time will tell! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Ridge by the Alluetians looks stronger than 18ZYeah day 8-10 it was 3-4mb stronger and more amplified than 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I drove into Pateros one cold night and the steam from the factors was making it snow. Also that little area can get pretty snowy. Didn't you live around there?I split my time there between Omak and Pateros. I rented a little house right on the Methow in town and had an opportunity to buy it just before I came back to the west side. It was probably the right decision but I kick myself all things considered. It'd be nice to have an excuse to go back over there more often. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 12 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/288/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Hard to complain about the 00Z GFS. Models are certainly trending in the right direction. There is tons of potential with that pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 This is really good stuff! That is a classic Fraser outflow signature. Tons of potential. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Too early!!!!!!!!! Or too late... One or the other... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 This is really good stuff! That is a classic Fraser outflow signature. Tons of potential. We posted the same thing at the same time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Time for the ECMWF to jump on board. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Too early!!!!!!!!! Or too late... One or the other... Absolutely perfect timing if the 00Z GFS is right. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just amazing potential emerging now. Probably best I've seen since 2008. 00z CMC not quite as good but pattern is very similar just lacking amplification with Aleutian ridge. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Doesn't get much better than that. Don't know if I could draw it up better with my limited knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Also interesting that the GEM and the GFS look very similar at 240 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Snow storm Christmas Eve! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Christmas Eve... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Now this is what I call a White Christmas! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Snow storm Christmas Eve! You beat me by about 10 seconds! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Haha, too slow... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Haha, too slow... It looks so nice that seeing it 3 times is not a problem. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just amazing potential emerging now. Probably best I've seen since 2008. 00z CMC not quite as good but pattern is very similar just lacking amplification with Aleutian ridge.Did you sleep through December 2016? That was without a doubt the most amazing month of model runs I've ever seen. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Andy in Woodinville just posted this great pic of the Snoqualmie Valley this afternoon... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Now onto the GEFS and hoping to see some signal after day 10-12 for this and colder mean temp/members popping up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Did you sleep through December 2016? That was without a doubt the most amazing month of model runs I've ever seen.I tried to. I think there is a higher potential this go around for a legit, widespread blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 It was a great sunset in Seattle tonight... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I tried to. I think there is a higher potential this go around for a legit, widespread blast.Definitely. It didn't happen last winter. This winter, for the most part, hasn't happened yet. I don't remember too many people down playing last December/early January's potential though... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Definitely. It didn't happen last winter. This winter, for the most part, hasn't happened yet. I don't remember too many people down playing last December/early January's potential though...Oh yeah for sure, I'm just speaking to the possibility of a major old timer arctic blast. It seems very real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Oh yeah for sure, I'm just speaking to the possibility of a major old timer arctic blast. It seems very real.Blocky winters be blocky... I think this winter feels more north/south. Climate justice. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Everything I'm seeing points to tomorrow being colder than today for the Seattle area. Pretty much everywhere is running solidly colder than this time last night with a lot more fog around. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Everything I'm seeing points to tomorrow being colder than today for the Seattle area. Pretty much everywhere is running solidly colder than this time last night with a lot more fog around. More likely about the same from SEA south to OLM where there will be little mixing like today (that includes your area too). It will probably be warmer here and in the Snoqualmie Valley through the city of Seattle and north to Bellingham. And on the WA coast. Look at the 12Z ECMWF surface map for today and for tomorrow. It was perfect today. This was today: And tomorrow: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 One thing I love is how all the models (and their ensembles) agree on rising heights over the Aleutians after next weekend with a generally flat ridge over the PNW. Exact placement, amplification, etc. will work itself out but that is a nice player to have on the field regardless. Absolutely. I really expected this to evolve into a 2-3 week period of wet, zonal flow. I am pleasantly surprised about being wrong! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 00z GEFS decent. Ridge is a bit too transitory. Better than I expected really and plenty of time for improvements which I think are coming.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017120900/300/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Wind is actually making the house creak here... its really starting to pick up out there. Much stronger than earlier today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Wind is actually making the house creak here... its really starting to pick up out there. Much stronger than earlier today.And it's warm!!! It's warm, guys!!! It's a warm wind, guys!!! GUYS!?!?!* * Guys = Jim 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Now this is what I call a White Christmas! Almost, but not quite. That low needs to be 250 miles south. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 And it's warm!!! It's warm, guys!!! It's a warm wind, guys!!! GUYS!?!?!* * Guys = Jim No... its a nippy wind. Feels like winter! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Absolutely. I really expected this to evolve into a 2-3 week period of wet, zonal flow. I am pleasantly surprised about being wrong!Woe there, it hasn't happened yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 No... its a nippy wind. Feels like winter!Seems others also see the behavior you routinely act like in crazy for pointing out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Woe there, it hasn't happened yet. I don't see wet, zonal flow coming. But you are correct. Best to not count your chickens before they hatch. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nice improvements on the Ensembles! Let's keep this going 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Seems others also see the behavior you routinely act like in crazy for pointing out. Yes... Matt has never called us out. He called you out today as well but you vehemently protested that assessment. Denial. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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