SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I can't believe how much worse the 00z ensembles were. Hanging by a thread. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 7http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121300/168/500h_anom.na.png+++++++NAO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Canadian ensembles were definitely colder than the GFS ensembles. Not epic cold, but colder than normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 +++++++NAO. What say you. A trend or more (MOORE) noise? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 5http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 FWIW, the GEFS tend to mirror the OP a lot more than most other guidance. I see it all the time here with both tropical systems and blizzards. When the OP GFS swings, so does its ensemble mean. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Wow. Kamchatka low deepened 40mb in 24 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 6 MEHhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 We could easily see 12z runs revert back to very cold solutions.... always seems unlikely of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Ok clock is at 0 now. It's over. Better luck next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I think this was our best chance this winter. Sun angles increase soon and late January is basically spring. Westerlies will want to come back soon, too. Darn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 If our ridge flattens at day 7 this might be okay..... Might. Could be. IF. Maybe. Almost. Sorta. Nearly. Shoulda. Coulda. Woulda. Next frame gives me a lot of gas and digestive trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 We could easily see 12z runs revert back to very cold solutions.... always seems unlikely of course. They could be as kinky as Matt Lauer at a holiday party. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not good But this month is supposed to be EXTRA COLD! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXugq8vH-Ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 7 cut-off lows galore!http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 This is honestly far better than I expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Looks like the top of a coconut or bowling ball... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 It is a lot better than the GFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 The GEM ends up in a pretty good place with shortwave action reving up off the northern BC coast. The ECMWF still looks much better than the 0z GFS at hour 168. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Very little rain over the next 7 days on the 00Z ECMWF... and correspondingly very little snow in the mountains. It was looking very wet from Friday - Tuesday on some previous runs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 8 .... don't look.... don't. really. do not lookhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 As the Medford NWS forecaster said earlier, the EURO has shown very poor run-to-run consistency. This run shows that for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I will go out on a limb.. 12z runs tomorrow will look quite a bit different, in a good way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 9 ... This pattern evolution just looks weird. Throw this run out.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Okay, I wasn't going to do it...... but..... MBG 12z runs tomorrow are decidedly better. 6z GFS in 2 hours 32 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Day 9 ... This pattern evolution just looks weird. Throw this run out.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/216/500h_anom.na.pngEvery other run from every other model for the last several weeks has shown, in the long run, a massive ridge. Where it forms has varied. This run is the first one that I have seen with such a weak ridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 The GEM ends up in a pretty good place with shortwave action reving up off the northern BC coast. The ECMWF still looks much better than the 0z GFS at hour 168. That's not bad, but that deep trough over the east/southeast..... maybe when it swings out to the northeast.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Every other run from every other model for the last several weeks has shown, in the long run, a massive ridge. Where it forms has varied. This run is the first one that I have seen with such a weak ridge. Yep. Very little model consistency either way right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Not sure I should even bother posting Day 10http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 That's not bad, but that deep trough over the east/southeast..... maybe when it swings out to the northeast.. If we got there I wouldn't be worried, it looks ripe for a snap regression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 At least day 10 looks a bit better, FWIW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hmmm, 00z CMCE Ensembles still show very cold surface temp anomalies 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 In 12 hours we went from ...... REALLYto .....Oh... man...... really .... 12z GFS in 8 hours 20 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 No wizard tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Okay, yeah, definitely discard the 00z ECMWF Op. A massive, outer worldly surface high over nearly all of North America?What about that funky set of double cut-off lows? Righttttt. NOPEhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121300/240/sfcmslp.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Need to get that vortex out of Greenland. Would help utilize NAMT forcing and accelerate the retrogression. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hopefully the store will take a return on those ice skates I bought this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 If this busts, blame Tim’s snowblower. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 If this busts, blame Tim’s snowblower.And there it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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