Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 00z ECMWF - If this run is similar or close to the GFS I'd be a bit encouraged and definitely more optimistic. Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 The ECMWF has the MJO go all through Phase 8 until the 26th... warm PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 4 - Aleutian ridge looks healthy. Cut-off much further south over southern Bajahttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 The ECMWF has the MJO go all through Phase 8 until the 26th... warm PNW. ECMF_phase_51m_small.gifPhase 7 is actually associated with cool PNW temps, as well as cool temps across the Northern Plains. Phase 8 is warm though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 The WRF spits out a little bit of snow and 925mb of -5 for the Puget Sound lowlands toward the middle of next week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 4 flat ridge over us flattened more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Get rid of political parties, ridges right over the Pacific Northwest, and religion and the world would be a much better place in my opinion.35 degrees currently. The only time Western ridges are allowed in winter is when there is snow on the ground! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Phase 7 is actually associated with cool PNW temps, as well as cool temps across the Northern Plains. Phase 8 is warm thoughI was referring to the Phase 8 part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 4 flat ridge over us flattened more That's going somewhere good IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 The only time Western ridges are allowed in winter is when there is snow on the ground!I agree! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 That's going somewhere good IMO. I think so, too. Aleutian ridge a little stronger and further west than GFS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I was referring to the Phase 8 part. Ok, understood. Hopefully we can get to phase 1 and 2 soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 6 - Not bad IF the block builds herehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Block is 9mb stronger than 00z last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I think so, too. Aleutian ridge a little stronger and further west than GFS. I always look for those well defined stair steps. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 6 - Not bad IF the block builds here The persistence of the Kona / near Kona low in the models has been interesting. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 7 not bad. Block may reorganize around 145-150 Whttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/168/500h_anom.na.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 7 not bad. Block may reorganize around 145-150 Whttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/168/500h_anom.na.pngI like where this is headed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Reorganized exactly where I thought! Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/192/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Not bad Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 MUCH better ECMWF run tonight. Looks like we're on the upswing again. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 MUCH better ECMWF run tonight. Looks like we're on the upswing again. Yep. Better than the GFS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 9 BANG!http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/216/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Of course after 10 days of clear night skies, high clouds come in just in time for the geminid meteor shower... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 The Canadian ensemble looks better tonight also. The control model shows a really good cold wave. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 If only we could defy gravity and stay there. Sort of a poor analogy, even though it might look clever from a distance. Unlike the periodic motion of a swing or pendulum, model verification has a set endpoint. Feasibly something can continue to trend well, or poorly, until verification, which isn't nearly as outlandish as a swing continually moving upward, or failing to move downward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Day 9 BANG!http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121400/216/500h_anom.na.pngArctic blast incoming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Really good Fraser outflow at day 9 on the Euro. This could end up being a really cold month for places that have done well with the fake cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I think this is the coldest run yet in the semi-believable range within 10 days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Really good Fraser outflow at day 9 on the Euro. This could end up being a really cold month for places that have done well with the fake cold. Still looks a bit too close to the coast for "good" Fraser outflow, but it would produce some outflow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 FWIW, this is the perfect pattern to tap into the ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-drag bias. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Two words: Kamchatka Bomb. Massive driver of downstream Amplification and blocking near 150 W. Book it. It sets up around day 6-7. This is about to lock in ladies and gentlemen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 -12C at 850mb at hour 240 for Portland. Going to go out on a limb and guess that that's probably colder than what will actually verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Sort of a poor analogy, even though it might look clever from a distance. Unlike the periodic motion of a swing or pendulum, model verification has a set endpoint. Feasibly something can continue to trend well, or poorly, until verification, which isn't nearly as outlandish as a swing continually moving upward, or failing to move downward.Definitely. I forget where I saw it, but I read a study recently that there is no evidence of "trends" in the models. Sometimes they get warmer with time, sometimes they get colder, and other times they bounce back and forth. But there isn't a statistically significant relationship between the direction one run goes to the next. (ie. The 18z being warmer than the 12z doesn't make the 00z any more likely to be warmer than the 18z.) The same thing was true for strengths of low pressure systems. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 -12C at 850mb at hour 240 for Portland. Going to go out on a limb and guess that that's probably colder than what will actually verify.Bold strategy 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 FWIW, this is the perfect pattern to tap into the ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-drag bias. Not buying it huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.