SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Model Comparison00z GFS / 00z CMC Day 1-2 ridge on GEM bit more 'upright, tilted', Kamchatka low a bit further west of GFS. Day 2. 00z CMC better tilt of ridge. Both GFS/CMC feature same 998mb cut-off same exact placement. CMC 2mb stronger ridge. Due to better tilt cold trough digs bit more efficiently. HR 60 CMC block a notch or two further west. HR 60 500mb height anomalies shows both the block and Aleutian ridge stronger with CMC Just a few notches, not by a large margin. Day 3 CMC ridge merger touch stronger and the now merged block strengthens sooner. Also, energy with trough in Bering Sea held further west on CMC. HR 72-84 cut-off low doesn't intensify and lifts north. HR 84 big difference with energy dumping into trough west of Block. Far less with CMC. Hudson's Bay vortex exact same placement. HR 96 - 120 energy dumping into trough cut off with CMC. GFS continuous energy dumping into trough. SO basically the GFS ridge merger was a bit weaker, GFS few notches weaker with block, energy in Bering Sea not held back all that well and fed into trough west of Block energizing cut-off low. 00z ECMWF in 57 minutes To your credit. You knew the GFS was going to suck by day 2-3. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 WRF keeping the same trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 At least my kids get a white Christmas with the 00z GFS... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 In the case my vasectomy magically reverses itself, I'm naming my next child Kamchatka. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Torchy start to 2018... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 February 1989 had a ridiculous amount of anticyclonic return flow. December 1983 too. February 5, 1982. I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows. Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I thought I saw a question that disappeared. I think the GFS is a mess during week 2 because it's poorly teleconnected and I think the surface high complex over the US is overdone by a ton. Sometimes a run is gibberish and this is one of those. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 In the case my vasectomy magically reverses itself, I'm naming my next child Kamchatka. 'Tis the season of miracles! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows. Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. Little doubt there are going to be surprises in the coming days. Pretty exciting potential though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows. Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west.Of course. Hence the fact we became extremely cold. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up. Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck? This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 'Tis the season of miracles! I should probably consider one of those... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Prediction: GFS ensembles...A step back... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I checked out all of these and while there are some similarities, they were all definitely centered further west than what the GEM shows. Jan 1974 was the closest match I could find. But even that was a bit west.January 12, 1997 might be a good match also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up. Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck? This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch. It is a major outlier compared to its ensmbles...They are a definite step back... Event cancel pending... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I should probably consider one of those...How many are you up to now? Well hopefully the Euro will be inline or even better than the GEM tonight. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Quite frankly it's a miracle the GEM has been able to maintain some consistency with this situation coming up. Could it be the upgrades they made are THAT good or is it just luck? This will be an interesting aspect of this event to watch.It's the upgrades. It has been so consistent in bringing in cold air and hasn't wavered. We can't ignore what it's showing right in front of our faces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Should be a pretty interesting 00z Euro tonight. Will hopefully settle the GFS-GEM fued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 How many are you up to now? Well hopefully the Euro will be inline or even better than the GEM tonight. Four. All girls... 4 yr 11 mo3 yr - twins6 1/2 months... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Of course. Hence the fact we became extremely cold. Looking a little closer at it, Dec 1983 did have a fairly similar block configuration, with high heights extending all the way across the NW Territories. More similar than Feb 1989. But yeah, all huge, top heavy blocks that basically covered all of Alaska/Yukon and extended into the Arctic. In 1989, the blocking persisted for awhile after the main blast, but in 1983 it dissolved pretty rapidly shortly after Christmas. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 That’s it...I’m putting the old bald tires back on my wife’s car. Event cancelled. Wet Christmas.Phil was wrong. Seahawks suck. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It's the upgrades. It has been so consistent in bringing in cold air and hasn't wavered. We can't ignore what it's showing right in front of our faces.When was the GEM upgraded? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 When was the GEM upgraded?When it turned cold. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 When was the GEM upgraded?I forgot who but someone said it had an upgrade recently. I think this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 00z GEFS too much energy dumping into trough. A step backwards, but massive spread showing up among members. 00z CMCE 850s for Troutdale mean temp with first blast same as 12z -8c and a nice cluster of members -10c to -14. It does however seem like there might be an unfavorable trend emerging. Not sure yet. I can't tell you how many times we've seen last minute flip/flops with something falling apart, or then it flips back in our favor the next set of runs. With the ridge right now currently at 170 W progressing to 160 W by morning I can't see why the models are having an issue with initializing or handling of the pattern change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 January 12, 1997 might be a good match also. Yeah, that's actually the closest. I don't remember anything notable happening in Tacoma that January...looks like a dry, chilly backdoor deal with a brief overrunning event at the end. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 That’s it...I’m putting the old bald tires back on my wife’s car. Event cancelled.Wet Christmas.Phil was wrong.Seahawks suck. You are 100% correct on one of these points. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 One year ago today...sadly it might be more than what we get over the next two weeks. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Very windy all of a sudden. 46 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Well this place got gloomy Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 GEFS disaster. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Well this place got gloomyReality sunk in Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Retrogression seems to have disappeared from everyone's vocabulary. It's like the dial tone and Zima. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Ok,Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I think everyone has a pretty good idea where the EURO is going. I think the event probably is back on the table in 24 hours before the rug is pulled out. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Ok,Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast. GUILTY! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Ok,Someone told their loved ones about the incoming arctic blast. Well, a bunch of people confessed earlier. Jim claimed early victory. Plus, Jesse. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Meanwhile EUG is in their own little world again at 34. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 The GEFS has totally given up on anything cold after the 2nd little cooldown. If the Euro colapses on us like it seems is likely we will then have only the GEM showing anything good. What a revolting development this is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Yeah, that's actually the closest. compday.2mVk7XNVWK.gif I don't remember anything notable happening in Tacoma that January...looks like a dry, chilly backdoor deal with a brief overrunning event at the end.Yeah that was a very impressive event for a lot of the Intermountain West but pretty boring in the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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