December Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

I can't believe Jesse did this to us.

 

#blameJesse

 

Sorry.

 

If it's any consolation I will make sure the ensembles look better.

[Deweydog]

Don't **** with my sunny Xmas, G.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Canadian looks pretty goofy after day 8.

 

Yeah... That doesn't even make sense...But definitely fuel for wishcasting fire...

[Jesse]

Don't **** with my sunny Xmas, G.

 

Where are you going?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the worst winter ever. Thanks Jesse. FUCKIT.

[luvssnow_spokane]

CMC Snowfall totals...

 

[Deweydog]

Where are you going?

Coastal Washington.

 

That warm front is making it's move...

[MossMan]

Yeah Jesse...I cannot believe you. Thanks a lot.

It wasn’t me, I haven’t said a word yet.

[Jesse]

Coastal Washington.

 

That warm front is making it's move...

 

We hiked Saddle Mountain today, southeast of Astoria. It wasn't sunny.

[Front Ranger]

CMC Snowfall totals...

 

gem_asnow_nwus_24.png

 

Yikes, tigerwoodslibido is not gonna be cool with this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 240 of the GEM has another shot of cold air sliding down the coast from the NNW...Good lord, is anyone even paying attention to the GFS at this point?!

[GHweatherChris]

I know what did it. My wife turned on A Christmas Story Live. That'd suck the life out of any Arctic air mass or living organism. What a train wreck.

Ya, it is a Shitt show, we made it 10 minutes in, why do this to one of the greatest Xmas movies of all time.

[Deweydog]

We hiked Saddle Mountain today, southeast of Astoria. It wasn't sunny.

Oh the stories I could tell...

[Jesse]

Hour 240 of the GEM has another shot of cold air sliding down the coast from the NNW...Good lord, is anyone even paying attention to the GFS at this point?!

 

GFS ensembles will be stellar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile the cold air is about 1500 miles further east on the GFS and it is raining on Christmas night...

[Jesse]

Oh the stories I could tell...

 

How many of your kids were conceived on top during windstorms?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

CMC Snowfall totals...

 

gem_asnow_nwus_24.png

LOL

[Deweydog]

How many of your kids were conceived on top during windstorms?

Zero, but it's funny you went there with it.

[Jesse]

Zero, but it's funny you went there with it.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What if the GEM is January 2005/11 and the GFS is reality...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How many of your kids were conceived on top during windstorms?

 

My oldest was conceived the day Phillip Humber threw a perfect game...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While the GEM certainly has it's weaknesses (snow totals, being one), it has been fairly accurate picking up the overall pattern progression this year and last winter as well, if I remember correctly.

 

Not to mention it's easily been the most consistent of the models. Whether that ends up being consistently wrong or consistently right remains to be seen but it's got to count for something.

 

I think a blend between the more west GEM route and the more east GFS route would be a safe bet right now.

 

As I said last night. This is an international quest for supremacy...

[BLI snowman]

Coastal Washington.

 

That warm front is making it's move...

Snow/cold is pretty unlikely out there.

[Deweydog]

What if the GEM is January 2005/11 and the GFS is reality...

January 2005 and 2011 were advertised to be far more exciting.

[Deweydog]

Snow/cold is pretty unlikely out there.

Non-ice burn!

[Perturbed Member]

Ridiculous 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2005 and 2011 were advertised to be far more exciting.

 

True.

[snow_wizard]

My money is on King GEM.  It has been very consistent compared to the GFS.  I bet the GFS still goes somewhere good later on though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Ridiculous

 

 

That amount of cold air is just ludicrous!

[Front Ranger]

The only trend the models seem to agree on is the -EPO ridge becoming increasingly top heavy. It's funny, looking at the CMC, the ridging builds back in basically where it mainly been this month longitudinally, it just tilts a ton.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The only trend the models seem to agree on is the -EPO ridge becoming increasingly top heavy. It's funny, looking at the CMC, the ridging builds back in basically where it mainly been this month longitudinally, it just tilts a ton.

 

gem_z500a_namer_32.png

 

Is there a historical analog to a block like that?

[Blizzard777]

This is what I see as I enter the weather forum to get caught up on the action

[Front Ranger]

Is there a historical analog to a block like that?

 

Probably. Don't know what it would be off the top of my head, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This on the other hand...This looks nice...

 

[Deweydog]

Is there a historical analog to a block like that?

February 1989 had a ridiculous amount of anticyclonic return flow.

 

December 1983 too.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is just an utter mess as it gets toward day 10.  Almost no chance of the pattern verifying.  My adage is if you have never seen it before it probably won't happen.

[Deweydog]

This on the other hand...This looks nice...

 

Looks as realistic as the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Is there a historical analog to a block like that?

February 5, 1982.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model Comparison

00z GFS / 00z CMC

 

Day 1-2 ridge on GEM bit more 'upright, tilted', Kamchatka low a bit further west of GFS. Day 2. 00z CMC better tilt of ridge. Both GFS/CMC feature same 998mb cut-off same exact placement. CMC 2mb stronger ridge. Due to better tilt cold trough digs bit more efficiently. HR 60 CMC block a notch or two further west. HR 60 500mb height anomalies shows both the block and Aleutian ridge stronger with CMC Just a few notches, not by a large margin. Day 3 CMC ridge merger touch stronger and the now merged block strengthens sooner. Also, energy with trough in Bering Sea held further west on CMC. HR 72-84 cut-off low doesn't intensify and lifts north. HR 84 big difference with energy dumping into trough west of Block. Far less with CMC. Hudson's Bay vortex exact same placement. HR 96 - 120 energy dumping into trough cut off with CMC. GFS continuous energy dumping into trough. SO basically the GFS ridge merger was a bit weaker, GFS few notches weaker with block, energy in Bering Sea not held back all that well and fed into trough west of Block energizing cut-off low.

 

00z ECMWF in 57 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 1989 had a ridiculous amount of anticyclonic return flow.

 

December 1983 too.

 

I was thinking maybe December 83'.