Gradient Keeper Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Day 5-7 definitely encouraged by the likelihood of Aleutian ridging merging with new offshore ridge evolving into huge block. This coincides with the switch to -WPO, -PNA, massive -EPO, and MJO. Good things ahead. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 16 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 At 192 hours, the GFS seems on route to having the block ride the GOA ridge down as a fake cold clipper. #climo Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Kool Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 At least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.GFS has been pretty consistent. Screwing us on 95% of the runs, within day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I swear. Watching this blog on a daily basis can make anyone crazy. Surprised that someone hasn't gone postal here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 That is a big snow storm across the heartland... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I swear. Watching this blog on a daily basis can make anyone crazy. Surprised that someone hasn't gone postal here.I do agree with you there. Maybe best to take a break for ten days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 What a mess this would be... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Where's Phil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Where's Phil?At your mom's house. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I doubt we'll see anything epic in the next two weeks, but I think we'll have a couple nice surprises. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 At your mom's house.But she hasn't been alive for 8 years now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 But she hasn't been alive for 8 years now.He has issues. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I doubt we'll see anything epic in the next two weeks, but I think we'll have a couple nice surprises.I think Phil is going to be right. After Christmas towards the New Year. I suspect we'll see some decent to good runs mixed with meh/decent to poor ones the next day or 2, then balls to the wall craziness afterwards. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 At times like these I look to the JMA for guidance: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Moderate rain and 35. Been such the norm over the last 6yrs. By the time it’s cold enough the precip will be gone. So tired of this marginal setup crap. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 He has issues.Some people are into that... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Not really anything to like about the 00z. Sounds pretty consistent with previous days to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Moderate rain and 35. Been such the norm over the last 6yrs. By the time it’s cold enough the precip will be gone. So tired of this marginal setup crap.I'm heading to montana I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I think Phil is going to be right. After Christmas towards the New Year. I suspect we'll see some decent to good runs mixed with meh/decent to poor ones the next day or 2, then balls to the wall craziness afterwards.Yeah, the motherlode wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah, the motherload wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out.Yeah for some that's accurate. 00z ECMWF in 49 minutes00z GFS 22 hours 28 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Pattern reset on the GFS... Maybe after that it will be our turn. Yeah? Maybe? Right? Phil?Exactly. Blow that puny underperforming block out, reset pattern very briefly, new flat ridge moves through Aleutians, ridge develops offshore and they merge into a block. Very much like previous runs, 6z GFS, several prior Ensemble runs, today's 12z EPS, CMCE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Pattern reset on the GFS... Maybe after that it will be our turn. Yeah? Maybe? Right? Phil? Err.. I mean, Jared? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I sure wish the nam went out 300hrs. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'm heading to montana I think.Our friends in the Carlton area near Winthrop tormented me all day with snowy wonderful pics...one day we will be moving over there. Just not possible with our jobs to make the jump yet. However we are looking at larger houses on more property east or north of where we are now. (West of Smokey Point) found the perfect place just east of Big Lake, custom house, amazing shop, 21 acres, no neighbors, and a 1,000ft hill that I could take a quad up to. Was on the market for the last 8 months, I find it and the next day goes under contract...one of these days I won’t be a day late or a dollar short! Haha! Also looking up north near Ferndale. Back here near home thet recently tore down a big chunk of wooded property by Costco where all the homeless were living so they could put up more Taco Bell’s and banks so of course the homeless druggies scattered like rats and moved into our residential area west of town...time to get out of here and find a snowier place in the process! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 "Pattern reset" is the new "warning shot" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yeah, the motherlode wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion. At this point I would take January 2006. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out.I'm okay with getting my hopes up and getting it crushed. Once it finally does happen it will mean that much more to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Meanwhile...I hate to crush hopes but I have never seen the GEM verify that far outAt least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.It will be consistent to not verify too... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 What a mess this would be... Dallas is no stranger to ice storms. It happens fairly frequently there. Remember the Leon Lett game in Dallas on Thanksgiving in 1993? Field was covered in a blanket of ice and sleet. And it was also an issue during Super Bowl week in 2011. http://sportsdaydfw.imgix.net/SUPER_BOWL_WEATHER_FOOTBALL_17871676.JPG Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Where's Phil?Hiding because the writing is on the wall that this is all going to s**t!... 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Hiding because the writing is on the wall that this is all going to s**t!... Never a good sign when both Phil and Jim are nowhere to be found. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I hate to crush hopes but I have never seen the GEM verify that far out It will be consistent to not verify too... This doesn't make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 I'm okay with getting my hopes up and getting it crushed. Once it finally does happen it will mean that much more to me.Kind of like asking a girl out when she keeps saying, "no." Never give up!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Never a good sign when both Phil and Jim are nowhere to be found.It is consistent at least... it means one thing .... winter cancel ... Jim is having a melt down. Phil is analyzing his analysis to explain what went wrong and why it may work out for us in February... maybe. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 What is this "hope" you speak of?Hope that the GEM’s runs will verify Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 At this point I would take January 2006.I'd be okay with a January 2004 or 2017 type event. I just need the snow to stick around for at least a few days afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 It is consistent at least... it means one thing .... winter cancel ... Jim is having a melt down. Phil is analyzing his analysis to explain what went wrong and why it may work out for us in February... maybe. Why not March? Perhaps we can get a decent PSCZ that drops a trace of slush on the grassy spots! That would be awesome!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Why not March? Perhaps we can get a decent PSCZ that drops a trace of slush on the grassy spots! That would be awesome!!!!Good point nothing better than a quick hitting slush fest we can satisfy our spring fantasies with... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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