December Weather In the PNW

[BLI snowman]

It'll be interesting to see how far we can make it locally without dropping below 525dm thicknesses. Not terribly unusual but it becomes somewhat notable around New Yearz.

 

2002-03 didn't do that until April.

[MossMan]

A few more days and we will be able to start seeing Matt’s Epic MLK blastaganza for the ages showing up on the clown range GFS!!

[Farmboy]

Eh, down into the mid 30s. Hopefully can get something better than that.

As long as that pv is stuck over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island, we're pretty much screwed. Right, Phil?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty interesting looking at the local stations around the Fraser Valley tonight. Over much of Greater Vancouver to the north temperatures are sitting above freezing, yet there's a line of windy sub-freezing conditions stretching right into the Ferndale waterfront. Go a little south of that and temperatures warm up quickly as well. It's a pretty common Fraser outflow pattern, but always interesting to see how much more of a difference exposure to outflow has over other factors like elevation. Shame none of it is able to cross the Strait, but this incoming system should produce a large area of snowcover over the outflow regions, which may help a bit with the Friday-Saturday event.

[Deweydog]

I'm assuming 02-03 was one of those years where we never dropped below? And 15-16 too.

02-03 never did. 15-16 did around Xmas. This led to some ravenous predictions for January, including Phil's "2008 only colder and snowier" prediction.

 

#context

[Phil]

02-03 never did. 15-16 did around Xmas. This led to some ravenous predictions for January, including Phil's "2008 only colder and snowier" prediction.

 

#context

Wrong year (again).

 

For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast.

[luvssnow_spokane]

As long as that pv is stuck over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island, we're pretty much screwed. Right, Phil?

He said no earlier today

[Deweydog]

Wrong year (again).

 

For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast.

MLK.

 

Wuz that 2015? I was 50-50 on that one...

[MossMan]

Wrong year (again).

 

For all the trash talk you do around here, you should at least grow a pair and make your own forecast.

He did...MLK Madness!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Nobody cares what happens in Vancouver. Go to the Canadian forums.

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.

[HighlandExperience]

That trough on Saturday is dangerously close to being something good. Strong northerly gradients through southern BC and some decent low level cold. It wouldn't take much of an improving trend on that bring lowland snow down to Seattle.

WRF wants to bring light snow over east side at the end of the weekend. Mmm

[Tenochtitlan]

winter storm warning up here for tonight but the radar is looking pretty sad.

[HighlandExperience]

Not bad. Redemption for Bellingham maybe

[MossMan]

Not bad

I think this weekend might sneak up on some people!

[ShawniganLake]

Some improvements on the gfs ensembles tonight.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not bad. Redemption for Bellingham maybe

 

Those totals look pretty high, as is typical for the WRF in marginal situations but it does look promising for this area. Would be nice to see some snow after constantly bouncing between gaps in the snowfall for previous events.

[snow_wizard]

Excellent GFS run tonight and some nice looking ensembles.

[snow_wizard]

This possible cold snap beginning in the early part of week 2 is getting some decent support now.  This could easily be the beginning of the much advertised winter blast.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run.  People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again!

[HighlandExperience]

The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run.  People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again!

 

Hope so. Euro is showing snow in Louisiana and Georgia the first week of January. Some epic snow totals along the eastern seaboard in the 8-10 day period.

 

I appreciate all the Christmas snow, but I really want to see something historic (in terms of snowfall) hit us this season. 

[snow_wizard]

Hope so. Euro is showing snow in Louisiana and Georgia the first week of January. Some epic snow totals along the eastern seaboard in the 8-10 day period.

 

I appreciate all the Christmas snow, but I really want to see something historic (in terms of snowfall) hit us this season. 

 

This reminds me of 1995-96.  The East got smashed and then it was our turn.  The models are obviously in our court early in week two.  In the meantime it will still be mostly chilly here.  Amazing how it simply can't get warm here when the Pacific is shut down in Dec and Jan regardless of where the blocking is.  For those who care about such things the ECMWF surface temperature maps show this area getting two more freezing low temps this month.  That would bring my monthly total to 23.  Really impressive.  At this point 20 to 25 (or possibly higher) wouldn't surprise me for January.

[snow_wizard]

One last very interesting point...the GFS and ECMWF teleconnection forecasts both show EPO tanked and -PNA by day 10.  That is a virtual guarantee for cold here.

[snow_wizard]

I've still got a nice solid snow cover here.  A good 2 inches still on the ground.

[GHweatherChris]

I've still got a nice solid snow cover here. A good 2 inches still on the ground.

Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.

[umadbro]

Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.

I like to complain about the weather too!

[snow_wizard]

Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.

 

Very true, but I have quite a bit of confidence for the second week of January given recent model runs and MJO forecasts.

[Jesse]

Easy to stay upbeat and positive when you benefited from this lucky cold shot... alot of us got nothing but a slushy half inch or none and nothing noteworthy temp wise.

I say more posters did well than didn’t this time around.

[snow_wizard]

Another epic run for the EPS control model in spite of the EPS not being too exciting.

[ShawniganLake]

Everyone’s favourite. 33F rain here tonight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I say more posters did well than didn’t this time around.

Definitely. Only ones I can think of besides me are Andrew and Bryant, for different reasons. There's probly others in the Central and South Valley that I forget.

[Gradient Keeper]

Definitely a nicer evolution on this run.  

 

I can't believe Rob isn't here tracking this possible cold wave.

Merry Christmas all. What a great White Christmas that was! I had around 2" here with 1/4" ZR added on top of it.

 

I've been real busy at home and as well in my PDX WX Analysis FB group trying to focus on that and also sleep. Lot of sleep. Well, I'm not real excited yet. We've had some pretty decent looking runs with a ridge around day 7 evolving into a block. Several ensembles runs look good with 500mb pattern. We have a long, long ways to go. Cautiously optimistic. Oh, did Phil write off January for us, or where do we stand on that now? 12z GFS in 4 hours 7 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

One last very interesting point...the GFS and ECMWF teleconnection forecasts both show EPO tanked and -PNA by day 10.  That is a virtual guarantee for cold here.

Ohhh, yeah that is really encouraging.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Euro is in a really nice place at the end of the run.  People need to recharge their batteries, because we are about to go into full model riding mode again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to the GFS we can take a model riding sabbatical.

[Gradient Keeper]

He typically doesn't track east coast events unless he's watching lightning on webcams.

Lol.... I don't think I've ever tracked an east coast event. Maybe severe weather, but nothing aside from that. I do remember one severe storm and the NWS warning I believe for Connecticut/Rhode Island stated it was moving east at 90mph. I hope they enjoy the epic blast they're about to get smacked with.

[Gradient Keeper]

According to the GFS we can take a model riding sabbatical.

GFS is garbage.

 

12z GEM in 4 hours 18 minutes

12z ECMWF in 6 hours 13 minutes

[Guest Dome Buster]

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.

Wow. Did I trigger you? You guys get so upset when someone mentions your area. Holy cow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says winter will run last week of January through April this year...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see all the excitement generated by the EURO? Looks like grasping at straws to me. If anything the GEM supports a GFS like solution too...

[Phil]

Wow. Did I trigger you? You guys get so upset when someone mentions your area. Holy cow.

Not enough east wind density up there?