December Weather In the PNW

[MossMan]

Upper 40’s with a fairly strong southerly wind...no problem! Just mound your snow before the melt-a-thon starts! Plus I can see my mow lines again...and my mole hills!

[Jesse]

Still 37 with light east winds here. Expecting a big warm up later this afternoon or evening though.

[westcoastexpat]

Been 33F here all night/morning and raining... so painful. Just straight cold rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't think Phil needs to explain why he has been wrong this winter. Seasonal forecasting is very tough. I'm personally pretty crummy at forecasting outside of 48 hours. Seasonal forecasting is an art and I respect him for his willingness to put himself out there... it at least gives us something to talk about. I don't really see the point in making someone explain themselves for a forecast. I think he has given his explanations (even if it is often poorly articulated), he just ended up wrong and that's okay.

 

I dare posters in here to do aviation forecasting for airports in the Yukon and Northwest Territories. You'll learn to be humble real quick. It's all part and parcel when it comes to forecasting. You just brush yourself off, learn from your mistakes and move on. In fairness to Phil, he's a a young person with no work experience in the industry. But, he is always learning every year and I am sure he will become a good climatologist one day, given his passion for the subject. Climatology is a beast.

 

I know that there is a lot of ego and competitive spirit on this forum, probably because it's a bunch of passionate young guys with testosterone up the wazoo. Let's just tone it down a notch. We have all been wrong and will be wrong again in our forecasts. Embrace it, show some humility and thank each other for participating -- whether posters like to show it or not, obviously people absolutely love this place given how many posts some of you have! What would we do without a community like this to dork out about the weather?!

AMEN and well said ... thank you!

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile here in Victoria it's 42F and pouring rain. Looks like this month won't end up dry afterall.

 

Finishing up the wettest 4-year period in Seattle history... with 2014, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 all finishing with more than 44 inches of rain.  

 

2017 is cruising past 46 inches today... 9+ inches above normal for the year and climbing.  

 

That is some serious long-term wet here.   I would like to see 2018 come in well below normal for rainfall.   Statistically we must be due for that to happen.

[Jesse]

As long as the ridge next week is fake coldish it’s all gravy.

[HighlandExperience]

Been 33F here all night/morning and raining... so painful. Just straight cold rain.

Worse feeling ever. Hopefully we get more opportunities in january

[Jesse]

Finishing up the wettest 4-year period in Seattle history... with 2014, 2015, 2016, and now 2017 all finishing with more than 44 inches of rain.  

 

2017 is cruising past 46 inches today... 9+ inches above normal for the year and climbing.  

 

That is some serious long-term wet here.   I would like to see 2018 come in well below normal for rainfall.   Statistically we must be due for that to happen.

A cool and dry 2018 would be lovely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A cool and dry 2018 would be lovely.

1985 for our time.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like near whiteout conditions in the eastern Fraser Valley today (this is the highway a little to the west of Hope):

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/231.jpg

Outflow is still blasting in the eastern valley. Big time freezing rain in the central and western valley.

[weather girl]

I'm totally serious. Once we were all toasty around Turkey Day, I think it's a good bet. I'm not a sensationalist like Phil, but that period starting the 15th seems to be our best bet.

I actually agree. A pattern flip is looking entirely possible about mid-January---even the models, while not committing---kinda, sorta think so. They'll come around.  If it doesn't happen then, I don't think it will happen in FEB either. For reasons.  

[TT-SEA]

A cool and dry 2018 would be lovely.

 

Yeah... cool years are obviously the best way to achieve drier than normal.   

[ShawniganLake]

Traffic cams icing over near Abbotsford

[MossMan]

I actually agree. A pattern flip is looking entirely possible about mid-January---even the models, while not committing---kinda, sorta think so. They'll come around. If it doesn't happen then, I don't think it will happen in FEB either. For reasons.

I don’t know...I have a feeling that Feb will if January doesn’t...1989 (I think it was) style!

[Front Ranger]

The late-mid January is about the only period that is screaming negative on the dueness index.

And the dueness index has never let us down!

[Front Ranger]

Having two of our better winter climo weeks virtually taken off the calendar for 8 years is crazy. If you look further back, it's not as if 2009, 2008, or 2002 were much to write home about either. So basically 21 years for a high impact event.

Balanced out to an extent by an unprecedented stretch of Arctic outbreaks late Nov/early Dec 2006-2013.

[Front Ranger]

I’m sitting on a plane right now, surrounded by crying babies. Not exactly the ideal venue for forecasting the behavior of a complex, nonlinear system.

That's really the best explanation to offer. It's a complex, non-linear system. No matter how much knowledge one has or research they do, there's no scientific reason to expect LR forecasts to deliver details such as the timing of a major Arctic outbreak to a particular region.

[Deweydog]

That's really the best explanation to offer. It's a complex, non-linear system. No matter how much knowledge one has or research they do, there's no scientific reason to expect LR forecasts to deliver details such as the timing of a major Arctic outbreak to a particular region.

Sex sells!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t know...I have a feeling that Feb will if January doesn’t...1989 (I think it was) style!

Coldest March in 67 years in 2018

[BLI snowman]

Balanced out to an extent by an unprecedented stretch of Arctic outbreaks late Nov/early Dec 2006-2013.

 

Key there being "an extent". The problem is that our propensity for huge events is dramatically higher in late January. Coming up so empty there really limits things for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Key there being "an extent". The problem is that our propensity for huge events is dramatically higher in late January. Coming up so empty there really limits things for us.

Hence our epidemic of slowly bleeding in arctic frontal passages...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Dalles finally above freezing.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wow!

 

Just had quite the temperature jump, looks like Bellingham is on the warm side now...

[Timmy]

Wow!

 

Just had quite the temperature jump, looks like Bellingham is on the warm side now...

First day in a least a week that it’s been 40 or more

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like weather.us is becoming a pay site. No more free Euro?

I knew it was too good to be true.

[Front Ranger]

Sex sells!!!

True. With the right hype, busts don't really matter. Ask Bastardi.

[Jbolin]

I've seen the future and Seattle will see it's next accumulating snowfall on Jan 23rd starting at 9:13 p.m. with a storm total of 9+ inches 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looking like Phil’s biggest bust in history. This one is epic. I hope no one ever forgets it.

Phil just said January would still be cold and snowy. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and give him until the end of January. His call of the huge Arctic blast from January 1 to 10 will not happen though so that's a big miss. I still believe in him and believe winter isn't over yet for the NW.

[Front Ranger]

Key there being "an extent". The problem is that our propensity for huge events is dramatically higher in late January. Coming up so empty there really limits things for us.

Indeed. A November 9 is only a January 6.

[Front Ranger]

Phil just said January would still be cold and snowy. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and give him until the end of January. His call of the huge Arctic blast from January 1 to 10 will not happen though so that's a big miss. I still believe in him and believe winter isn't over yet for the NW.

The tough part about several of my top analogs going into this winter was they didn't have much, if anything, the first half of winter. 1995, 1989, 1962...

 

At least this winter has already delivered some cold/lowland snow. I still feel good about January, and if January doesn't deliver, 1989-90 says there's still hope.

[Deweydog]

18z!

[wx_statman]

Stat o' the Day:

 

Yesterday was the 28th maximum at/below 40 degrees at PDX for calendar year 2017. Ties 1993, which also had 28 days, for most since 1985 (44 days). 

[wx_statman]

Interestingly, both 2017 and 1985 also stood out for persistent summer heat. 2017 finished with 24 days at 90+, while 1985 had 19 days.

[Deweydog]

Interestingly, both 2017 and 1985 also stood out for persistent summer heat. 2017 finished with 24 days at 90+, while 1985 had 19 days.

My kinda year. Extremes at both ends of the spectrum.

[Jesse]

Interestingly, both 2017 and 1985 also stood out for persistent summer heat. 2017 finished with 24 days at 90+, while 1985 had 19 days.

Will 2017 end up below average at PDX when all is said and done? They’ve got to at least be on the fence right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z!

Yep worse run yet... Awesome!

[Deweydog]

Yep worse run yet... Awesome!

Hour 216 is kind of interesting. Rare to see over 1,000 miles offshore void of any substantial 500mb gradient.

[Timmy]

Hour 216 is kind of interesting. Rare to see over 1,000 miles offshore void of any substantial 500mb gradient.

im gonna take the boat out here to enjoy it

[wx_statman]

My kinda year. Extremes at both ends of the spectrum.

 

Same here.

[BLI snowman]

Will 2017 end up below average at PDX when all is said and done? They’ve got to at least be on the fence right now.

 

Looks very likely, at least if we're going off of 1981-2010 averages. 2017 average to date is 54.05 and 30 year average is 54.4.