St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 A phased monster on the GFS...Tis the seasonThe GEM was sniffing this out yesterday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 All the way down into Mexico at 78? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Wow, this is what I’m talking about...I know a lot of you gave up, but this year is one where you can’t give up till Mother Nature says it’s over. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121912/102/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 CMC is holding the energy further south for longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Milwaukee to GB smasher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 That's one nice looking storm. Hopefully we can get some consistency going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Canadian has this going through the OHV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Canadian also trending back towards a phased system tracking along the LRC’s highway... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Canadian has this going through the OHV Doesn't get as wound up. Only down to 1005 on CMC whereas GFS gets it down to sub-1000 when it reaches Ohio Valley. If trends hold with any sort of cutter - how about a Canadian coup? Had this cutter look back on Sunday 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 @ Tom You mentioned changing thd title, so gonna post this here vs Dec daily stuff. Can move if you like. GEM, then follows up with an even more ominous SLP coming almost due north from GA a couple days later that looks more wrapped-up. What will this be, one eventual system, or a dbl whammy? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Wow, this is what I’m talking about...I know a lot of you gave up, but this year is one where you can’t give up till Mother Nature says it’s over.With that being said.....the towel is thrown, officially. Good luck to all those still in play! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 @ Tom You mentioned changing thd title, so gonna post this here vs Dec daily stuff. Can move if you like. GEM, then follows up with an even more ominous SLP coming almost due north from GA a couple days later that looks more wrapped-up. What will this be, one eventual system, or a dbl whammy? gem_mslpa_us_fh132-162.gifCould be back to back monsters. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Models all over the place, no consistency, every run seems to offer a different solution - I think the best solution is to just wait until this energy comes on shore later today or tonight and we can finally get some decent sampling. Otherwise, it just seems to be guesswork - at best! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Nope, GFS trending towards a large second wave...Without a doubt post deleted. If that first wave continues the weakening trend..... Madtown watch out.. And if the lead wave is being under modeled it would be dull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Without a doubt post deleted. If that first wave continues the weakening trend..... Madtown watch out Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hard cutter if GFS keeps strengthening southern piece and weakening northern piece Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Good call Tom. You've been saying it for days. DVN aslo mentioned it in their AFD on Sunday I believe. The GEM showed a brief flash of this for a couple runs a couple days ago, but went away yesterday. Now the GFS is jumping on board. Definitely interested to see what the other global models do today. Last nights Euro was a mess, so maybe it was just starting to latch on to the idea and we'll see a better run from it today. Appreciate it Bud! Now, let's hope this thing can give us both some snow for the holiday. I'm interested to see what happens with the GEFS ensembles and the Ukie/Euro today. I still expect some shifts/changes going forward, I've learned from the past, that models still struggle how to handle the southern energy, esp if it digs so far south as they are showing. I bet we won't get any clear indication till Thu pm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying?. Quite possible. If the lead waves turns into nothing this thing could cut very hard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Would a weaker first wave allow for a western path? Is that what you're saying?Yes it would, but I wouldnt by any single solution currently. Especially until the 500 vorticity get on shore.. Tons of moving parts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 This is more Fri now right? Got travel plans! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Looks like something about to really pop after hour 78. Tom’s reeling one in.Absolutely. Lots of moving parts turning into a thread the needle event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Holy wtf is that GFS? Massive run changes. Looking through, I thought for sure that the wave was gonna get suppressed, but instead, the southern energy takes control and we get a GLs cutter. Maybe the CMC had the right idea. Also the storms that benefit Madison from the SW usually give us something too. However, one run is not a trend. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 This is more Fri now right? Got travel plans! Driving I39/94 to Milwaukee. If the 1st wave wimps out i may have to leave early. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 The GEM was sniffing this out yesterday.How often do you see the GEM win out....well at least for today. Who knows what tomorrow will show but the way the models have been waffling you know things will change. I for one gave up on anything happening for the lower lakes and I am still not convinced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Yep thats seems more plausible then neb being hit. The one that hits us dies and the monster one misses to the east. Do you guys still wonder why we hate this place? Lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Yep thats seems more plausible then neb being hit. The one that hits us dies and the monster one misses to the east. Do you guys still wonder why we hate this place? LolBut you've got the finest brown grass in the whole of the country! Can't you at least take some pride in that? 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 It's going to be an inside slider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS.Dont stop the trend..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 0Z EPS matches up nicely with todays 12z runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Look at how the southern piece is getting pulled to the west on the GFS. Looks drunk but i like it Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 Dont stop the trend.....I agree, but I’ve already conceded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 I agree, but I’ve already conceded.I bit of a pipe dream but if the northern stream continues to weaken not out of the realm of possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 GFS throws out another GLC for NYE. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 12z Ukie digs it down to N MX... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Then ends up near Toronto... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2017 Report Share Posted December 19, 2017 I bit of a pipe dream but if the northern stream continues to weaken not out of the realm of possibilities.I’ll be model watching the rest of the day. If anything this is quite entertaining to watch unfold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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