Tom Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z Euro...most precip in IN/S MI may be mixed per this map... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 after the storm on the euro, looks like we go back in the freezer. Yay. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010112/216/850tw.conus.pngFun. I’m guessing the ice should be pretty good on Lake Winnebago this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 The idea of back 2 back storms between the Jan 7th-15th period is still in play. All the models today showed that possibility in today's 12z suite of runs. Let's see how nature delivers this go around as Winter is fully entrenched. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 after the storm on the euro, looks like we go back in the freezer. Yay. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010112/216/850tw.conus.pngAnd most of the snow here should be gone after this weekend, so we'll go thru that with little or no snow left. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 I've never felt a sub zero temp before and I missed this past cold snap so I wouldn't mind another one! Just wish models are overdoing weekend temps or we actually get new snow. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 More southern members showed up this run and seem to have that look the 12z GGEM showed. Indeed, both UKIE and Euro showing the CO Low feature. Let’s see where this goes.Was going to question your enthusiasm for the 12z GEM run that gave yby nada..but then the Euro ran and I see now. Would be roughly 49 days from 18 Nov? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 12z Euro control very similar to the Euro op and focuses on the southern energy with pretty similar snow maps. Trends are looking better than what they were showing last couple days and still a lot of possibilities at this range. Hey, at least there is something to track with another one on its heels a couple days later (the later may be the big dog that tugs down the Nanook). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 Was going to question your enthusiasm for the 12z GEM run that gave yby nada..but then the Euro ran and I see now. Would be roughly 49 days from 18 Nov?Similar set up but I'm not sure yet if this is the same system...will have to see about this in a couple days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 Even at 2:00PM, we are still only at -8 here in Cedar Rapids. Does not look like we will get any warmer than that today before sunset. Forecast for tonight is -22, but wouldn't be surprised if that is lowered when afternoon forecast update comes out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 We have a long ways to go with this new storm were tracking. Every GFS ensemble is different. But since the last bust of the GFS i would tend to follow the EURO more closely this time. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z gfs taking a small step towards Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 GFS has rain for Iowa, Illinois, Southern Wisconsin and Indiana. Keep this storm away if its going to be a rain event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 La Crosse and MKX saying highs in the 20s. No mention of mixing. Both offices sound pretty confident about light accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 cold weather related deaths in WI. Be safe out there folks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 ORD only made it to +1F today which again models busted to high with temps. Set a record low max temp for the day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 ORD only made it to +1F today which again models busted to high with temps. Set a record low high temp for the day.A balmy 10-13 deg all day here in Marshall. But, even with that I went out and plugged my block heater in then tried to clean the snow off my car and shovel with bare hands. Uh uh! The steel handle had me finding gloves, lol. Can't fathom the stuff from Chicago on west! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Perusing Lower Michigan, it looks like Mancelona in Antrim Cnty has been ground zero for snow this past week, reporting a cool 24" depth. Several other towns I love to tourist at are at 20" as well CoCoRaHS Precipitation ReportsValues are for the previous 24 hours ending around 7 am EST.All reports have been recorded in inches. SNOW SNOW WATERSTATION LOCATION PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIVMIAT06 : MANCELONA 0.5 ESE * : 0.25 / 4.8 / 24.0 / MMMILL01 : NORTHPORT 5.0 SSW * : 0.20 / 2.9 / MM / MMMICX07 : EAST JORDAN 2.1 NNW * : 0.12 / 2.0 / 19.5 / MMMIMN06 : WELLSTON 3.9 WNW * : 0.12 / 2.0 / 0.0 / 0.00MIBZ01 : BENZONIA 5.3 S * : 0.11 / 1.7 / 20.0 / MMMIOT04 : GAYLORD 1.7 WNW * : 0.08 / 1.6 / 15.0 / MMMIEM05 : HARBOR SPRINGS 0.7 ENE * : 0.05 / 0.8 / 15.0 / MMMIOD03 : LUZERNE 2.4 NE * : 0.05 / 1.0 / 3.0 / 0.35MICX04 : CHARLEVOIX 4.3 SSE * : 0.05 / 1.5 / MM / MMMIPI01 : ROGERS CITY 0.2 WSW * : 0.01 / 0.1 / 11.0 / MMMIMC04 : ST. IGNACE 0.5SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 7.0 / MMMIIC03 : EAST TAWAS 0.8 WSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 5.0 / MMMIAR02 : ALGER 2.4 ENE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hashtag make Nebraska Winters great again. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hashtag make Nebraska Winters great again. I'd take a decade of garbage winters for the huskers to go on a run like they did in the 90's 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 It’s crazy to think it’s already -5F with only a couple inches of snow OTG. The magnitude of this cold is impressive to say the least. Normally, you would need somewhere on the order of 6-10” of snow at the bare min to get temps this cold. Not this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd take a decade of garbage winters for the huskers to go on a run like they did in the 90'sHey, the few years before our last run was pretty bad for snow. About as bad as the past few years. Maybe Frost has a double meaning here? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 0z gfs really going with the southern energy this run 999 L at hr 132 in the co region Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 997 L in E KS at hr 138 with snow falling in WI/IL/IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 997 L in E KS at hr 138 with snow falling in WI/IL/IAGot quite a bit of a warm surge with it though, snow would probably transition to rain. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Nice, looking like euro except a bit more north over us Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lots of rain in Iowa this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ends up tracking just south of Chicago this run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Maybe 2-4” north of i 80 in Iowa. I don’t like these types of storms for my area. Rarely do they pan out. Huge warm surge out in front of the system. Positive tilt. Then even if the low tracks to the south, usually the best moisture is off to the north and east by the time the cold arrives. Not worth worrying about yet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 WOW canadian has a NW flow clipper with more arctic air. Completely different from the GFS / EURO. Should be fun to track lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hey, the few years before our last run was pretty bad for snow. About as bad as the past few years. Maybe Frost has a double meaning here?Seeing Bama play Georgia in the title game is about as bad as it gets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ukie sides with the gem No southern storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 00z Euro with widespread 3-5" totals across N MO/IL/IN and into MI...looks like it tries phasing as it tracks towards the GL's and taking on a neg tilt. These finer details will be something to iron out this week. Both the GFS/EURO are now trending towards more blocking with a -AO/-NAO in tandem. Could we have turned a corner with a sustained -AO in a -QBO winter??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS vs Euro comparison... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Chicago does well with both solutions. Glad we have something to track this week besides cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 This season we have seen flashes of the winters in the late 70's, 60’s, and more recently '13/'14...but also, we are seeing 1917-18 in the mix...very interesting winter that is transpiring. Sick of the cold??? Well, as mentioned earlier, if we were to use the BSR and LRC, there is another pull back that's been on my mind between the 17th-21st, give or take a couple days. Back in late Nov into early Dec, there was a zonal pattern that developed across the lower 48 and overnight GEFS/EPS are showing signs of it in the extended. Something to keep an eye on. Worcester had a two-fer on New Years Day. The low temperature tied the record for the date, -5 degrees set in 1918. The high temperature was 8 degrees, which set a record for coldest maximum temperature for the date. The previous record low maximum was 9 degrees in 1918. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Current temps across the area....umm, ya....could I have a late start today???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like we're gonna get a lot of snowmelt here this weekend. It won't completely go away, but it'll be just enough to make it look ugly outside with grassy patches. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 Cedar Rapids record low was -14 set in 1974. It was -22 last hour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2, 2018 Report Share Posted January 2, 2018 City water tower in Evansdale, IA froze up last night. Mayor has urged city residents to leave their faucets trickling to keep pipes from freezing up. Yeah its cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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