BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 63 at SEA on the hour. I think we are now past peak heating for the day... it is January after all. 5 minute obs show them at 64, which ties the monthly record. We'll see, sometimes those intra-hour obs are rounded incorrectly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Certainly an #MLK to remember in the central Puget Sound! Have to give you credit on a great forecast! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z ALERT! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z ALERT! Ice storm in Portland in 9 days?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Have to give you credit on a great forecast!I can't take the credit. I Hoovered a lot of my knowledge for this home run forecast from Flatiron. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ice storm in Portland in 9 days??That is an interesting setup. Could deliver for someone. That’s snow up here for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 That is an interesting setup. Could deliver for someone. That’s snow up here for sure. Unfortunately its the 18Z run at 9-10 days out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Unfortunately its the 18Z run at 9-10 days out.Unfortunately, yes.You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Snow Elite? Not much to brag about this year... no advantage at all. And the pic that Jesse attacked me on was from a public park and field in North Bend. Jesse and Bryant do the same thing every year. All Bryant ever does is come here to launch personal attacks and leave. That is what gets this going. At least Jesse regularly contributes positively to this forum all the time. I finally told Jesse off when he said that I am lying... which he has done repeatedly this year.I used to contribute a lot of MJO material, had a thread to teach others all the knowledge I had gained from research. I still could contribute, but honestly, I have no motivation to do so with the I see on here daily from you. Any potential hype or excitement and you immediately throw a wet blanket over it because that's just the kind of person you are. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Unfortunately, yes.You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out!That's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Unfortunately, yes.You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out! Yes... but I never trust the 18Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yes... but I never trust the 18Z GFS. The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I used to contribute a lot of MJO material, had a thread to teach others all the knowledge I had gained from research. I still could contribute, but honestly, I have no motivation to do so with the s**t I see on here daily from you. Any potential hype or excitement and you immediately throw a wet blanket over it because that's just the kind of person you are. Right. When there is something to track then I am totally on board... like with the Christmas event. Like with many events in the past. If I am a wet blanket and I am always wrong and great things are always happening then my posts would not have any effect on you... but you seem to be saying that reality is often a wet blanket around here (figuratively and literally). I have been as excited as a kid in a candy store when things actually work out. I was on board with Jim since late summer. Never doubted his predictions based on all the indices lining up this year and never said one negative word to him about his seasonal forecast. And often spoke up to agree with him. I still think he might be right in February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs. Phil says so. We will see on the 00Z run. I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Phil says so. We will see on the 00Z run. I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way.Speaking of the 18z. Looks cold, only 2 weeks away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Phil says so. We will see on the 00Z run. I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way.Uh oh. What did I supposedly say this time? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Oh no. What did I supposedly say this time? The 18Z run is less reliable? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Seattle 64 today. -1 in 3 weeks?! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 The 18Z run is less reliable?I’ve never said any such thing. Quite the opposite, in fact. There’s no statistically significant difference in regards to skill scores between the four daily GFS runs, since radiosonde data is a relatively minor component of the aggregate of data ingested. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 I’ve never said any such thing. Quite the opposite, in fact. There’s no statistically significant difference between any of the GFS runs since radiosonde data is a relatively minor component of the aggregate of data ingested. Ahhh... must have been someone else. Good to know... especially today with a great 18Z run! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Clown range is called clown range for a reason. Verification scores drop almost to “coin-toss” levels of statistical significance at some point within the D11-14 period (usually). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 In theory, the 18z GFS is plausible. As the upper level jet extends in the NW-Pacific, it can sometimes force a NE-Pacific wavebreak response and dump that last little load of polar air into the Northwest before things begin to progress forward and the pattern terminates. There’s plenty of historical precedent. Whether that response actually occurs, however, depends on the preconditioning beforehand. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Next week's snow is gonna have trouble sticking with such warm ground temperatures. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Tomorrow is going to feel like winter now... low to mid 50s with showers. No kidding. Was 64 here in Bothell. I think a lot of people headed out of work early today. A lot of people outside today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 No kidding. Was 64 here in Bothell. I think a lot of people headed out of work early today. A lot of people outside today. Glad I was able to share our downslope warming with the entire Seattle area on the last day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 15, 2018 Report Share Posted January 15, 2018 If I am a wet blanket and I am always wrong and great things are always happening then my posts would not have any effect on you... but you seem to be saying that reality is often a wet blanket around here (figuratively and literally).Nope, that is not what I "seem" to be saying. Anytime we get some hype or excitement in here, you're the first one to try and bring everyone back down to earth. It bothers you when people get excited, especially Jim. It's pathetic, and worst part is, you enjoy being a buzz kill 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nope, that is not what I "seem" to be saying. Anytime we get some hype or excitement in here, you're the first one to try and bring everyone back down to earth. It bothers you when people get excited, especially Jim. It's pathetic, and worst part is, you enjoy being a buzz kill Again... if I was doing this and always wrong then who cares? You only care because its usually correct. And if it was true that I always shoot everything down then why have I been supportive of Jim's seasonal forecast since late summer? Find one time in the last 6 months that I have told Jim that his seasonal forecast was wrong. Good luck. Many times... you come on here and barely even read through the detail and just attack me by default. And leave. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.Actually this is not true. There was a pretty extensive write up on here about this a few years ago. I think It has something to do how the various runs intialize data. I will see if I can find it. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thunderstorms rolling up the valley. Bye heatwave! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Official high at SEA was 64. Looking at the WRCC data... it appears that the monthly record for January is 64 degrees set on 1/20/1981. Is that correct? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 It was 51 next to KATU today in downtown at 630 this morning. Beautiful day outside. Made work so much easier. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Have to give you credit on a great forecast!Dewey clearly has a knack for zeroing in on blowtorch periods. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.Negligible difference in accuracy, especially that far out. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 SEA NWS confirms... Offshore flow, sunshine, and low-level mixing helpedpropel Sea-Tac to tie its all-time record January high of 64Fthis afternoon. They finish the AFD with this little gem... Hope you enjoyed today. There are no more dry 24-hour periods inthe forecast for the next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Dewey clearly has a knack for zeroing in on blowtorch periods.We are all following your lead. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Light showers and 45. A seasonally warm 50/35 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow... they choose to do this in the middle of winter instead of in July or August? BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING JANUARY 15 2018..THE KATX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICEFOR THE PLANNED SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROJECT. THIS IS A MAJOR PROJECT THAT REQUIRES THE RADAR BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH THURSDAY JANUARY 18 2018. ADJACENT RADAR WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD INCLUDING THE KLGX WA COASTAL RADAR...KRTX AT PORTLAND OREGON...KPDT AT PENDLETON...AND KOTX AT SPOKANE. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 We are all following your lead. Like the 18z, I will never lead you astray. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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