January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

I thought you were going to ignore his posts and report posts to me instead?

 

So you can ignore my reports?

 

I was hoping Tim would stick to his side of the deal.....but he just can't help himself. Oh well. 

[Phil]

Then stay away from the web pages of The Sierra Club, Greenpeace or any other mainstream environmental group. They all have become a ridiculous one note tune. And I say this as a card carrying treehugger myself.

Likewise, myself.

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

My grass that was basically dead recovered pretty quickly since September. It's not really growing (that I can tell), but it's all lush green. Could get trace of snow this week and maybe a windstorm up here.

 

No way!   

 

I was told that I am lying about such things here just yesterday.   

[Bryant]

Well, if we can't get any snow, bring on the rain. Need to take care of these drought issues

[MossMan]

Well, if we can't get any snow, bring on the rain. Need to take care of these drought issues

We need a major windstorm as well to have some natural pruning done!! Been too long!

[stuffradio]

So you can ignore my reports?

 

I was hoping Tim would stick to his side of the deal.....but he just can't help himself. Oh well. 

If you think I ignore all your reports

[Farmboy]

The ECMWF tends to overstate snowfall. But I still post images of inflated snowfall totals.

 

There is absolutely no way there is any snow at my house over the weekend per the 12Z ECMWF... strong southerly flow and 925 temp above freezing.

Strong southerly flow, and boring too...

[Jesse]

If you think I ignore all your reports

 

I have been told to go **** or screw myself three times now. I have been told to shut up and been called an idiot. None of those posts have even been touched. And I have yet to stoop to the level of responding in turn. 

[TT-SEA]

So you can ignore my reports?

 

I was hoping Tim would stick to his side of the deal.....but he just can't help himself. Oh well. 

 

What deal?

 

You accused me of lying just yesterday about something that is factually true in this area.    The grass is lush green all over the Snoqualmie Valley... more so than usual for the middle of January.   In fact... just last year it was strikingly dormant even into February as I mentioned at the time.     This situation now is probably related to the downsloping warmth we have been experiencing in this area numerous times since early December... which is also a lie according to you.   We do not live in a downsloping warm area our here. That is a geographical lie on my part.    Its always freezing cold here.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Every single time! Drove me crazy as well, though it was a great feeling when he blew the forecast in November of 1996 when he called for an inch of slop before turning to all rain and it would be gone by lunch time...never did turn to rain even in Seattle...that was a great moment!!

When i was in my early twenties i would really loose my marbles when a snow forecast busted. Probable the only one here that called Steve pool and yelled at him because it didnt snow!! Wtf was wrong with me lol. That was sometime between 90 and 95. I dont know if you still can but back then you could call the station and ask for the weather desk.

[Phil]

12Z EPS at day 10:

 

Can’t believe it, but I’m legitimately looking forward to this stretch of SE-ridging.

 

Outdoor work becomes more tolerable, and the odds of a wet paste blizzard increase, even as overall snowfall chances decrease. No more nickel/dime pixie dustings and frostbite.

[TT-SEA]

I have been told to go **** or screw myself three times now. I have been told to shut up and been called an idiot. None of those posts have even been touched. And I have yet to stoop to the level of responding in turn. 

 

 

You accuse me of lying and using some magical green grass camera filter when you were not even part of the discussion... poor guy!   So innocent.   

[BLI snowman]

Alarmists would be s**ting themselves if we repeated the hurricane seige of the 1950s/1960s. If that occurred today, with the ongoing coastal population boom and the inflation now vs back then..oh my goodness.

 

It's been remarkably quiet for tornadic activity since 2012, too. Warning systems of course are better now but I'm always struck by how many more significant tornadoes used to occur in the colder days

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks

[Jesse]

You accuse me of lying and using some magical green grass camera filter when you were not even part of the discussion... poor guy!   So innocent.   

 

That was a joke, just like people posting pics of blooming flowers supposedly all over their property. You really take this stuff to a level it doesn't need to go. I was happily ignoring your repeated troll attempts until yesterday too. And now I am pulled back into the mud with you. That part is my bad.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Are you posting this to show that I am wrong?

 

I have lived here for almost 15 years.   I know when its too warm for snow in my backyard.    Its not even close on the 12Z ECMWF and GFS runs.   And some poor resolution map that thinks the Cascades start immediately at Snoquamie Ridge will not change that fact. 

[Phil]

It was just 130 short years ago today that the high was 9 in Portland with full sunshine and bare ground.

 

In 2148 it'll probably be even colder than that!

And in 20148, glaciers will probably be plowing into the outskirts of the Seattle metro!

[TT-SEA]

That was a joke, just like people posting pics of blooming flowers supposedly all over their property. You really take this stuff to a level it doesn't need to go. I was happily ignoring your repeated troll attempts until yesterday too. And now I am pulled back into the mud with you. That part is my bad.

 

 

You were throwing the mud.    The discussion did not even involve you.    It has been warm and it does look like spring right now.   I can report on that whether you like it or not.   

[Jesse]

A couple of you guys need to put the other on the Ignore list, before you end up on Mod Preview list. 

 

The most that can be expected is that I ignore Tim while he carries on. Because he will never stop. And you guys will never make him stop.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know if it will snow in your back yard this weekend, but the model you cited showed snow in your back yard. 

 

It would be wrong to just take that map at face value and ignore all of the other parameters which make it almost impossible to snow at my house this weekend.    Particularly one with such poor resolution.   Even the WRF maps are much more detailed with geographic features.

 

Southerly flow... mild air mass... 925 temps above freeing.

 

With onshore flow (which we have all weekend) it takes -6C or -7C at the 850mb level to even see snowfakes.    850mb temp will be around -1C or -2C.   

 

I do not even have to look at poor resolution snowfall maps.    The other details completely rule out snow here.    Looking at a map like that and saying it will snow here this weekend is something that our local newscasters would do... its a joke. 

[Phil]

It's been remarkably quiet for tornadic activity since 2012, too. Warning systems of course are better now but I'm always struck by how many more significant tornadoes used to occur in the colder days

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks

Yeah, that’s one of the benefits of the +PNA trend since the 1950s. Less frequent troughing over the Intermountain West = less frequent tornado patterns over the Plains/Southeast.

 

In other words, -PNA kills more people than +PNA.

[TT-SEA]

The most that can be expected is that I ignore Tim while he carries on. Because he will never stop. And you guys will never make him stop.

 

 

How about not throwing mud in the first place?   I was not even talking to you.  I was responding to Shawnigan about how spring-like it is here right now.   

[Phil]

The January PNA has also been trending rapidly upwards since the 1950s.

 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, that’s one of the benefits of the +PNA trend since the 1950s. Less frequent troughing over the Intermountain West = less frequent tornado patterns over the Plains/Southeast.

 

In other words, -PNA kills more people than +PNA.

 

Definitely. No coincidence that the worst modern outbreaks were in big La Nina years. The flurry of tornado activity from 2006-2012 and the total silence since then speaks to that as well. And yet I'm sure we'll see idiotic comments after the next big tornado outbreak that actually try to argue the opposite.

[Bryant]

A couple of you guys need to put the other on the Ignore list, before you end up on Mod Preview list.

Yay for more covering up of the issue instead of fixing it. I applaud you guys on the mod team... A+ effort here

[Bryant]

How about not throwing mud in the first place? I was not even talking to you. I was responding to Shawnigan about how spring-like it is here right now.

You have zero room to talk.

[Phil]

The DJF NAO has also shifted upwards. The recent solar minimum *almost* terminated the +NAM/Expanded HC regime, but just failed by a hair, and the rubber band snapped back. We’ll try again during this solar minimum.

 

I see some naked eye PDO correlation here, FWIW:

 

[Bryant]

Blanket ban everyone?

Same issue every winter, with the same person. It's just expected now, and therefore seems to be "acceptable" behavior. No one ever does anything about it. It always ends the same way though, with a bunch of BS

[FroYoBro]

Jesus cheeto eating Christ.

 

Last warning for both of you.

 

If you don't like how someone likes to show off how much they love early signs of spring or that they will always see more snow from their hilltop manor while the rest of you plebs will only see mud and slop, then block them.

 

Click on your name on the upper right hand bannor, click on "Manage Ignore Prefs" and then add that persons name to the list. You can block posts, their signature, and even messages.

 

If someone is directly harassing you, then not only report the post, but send me a PM with a link to the post in question. I am not going to ban someone because they disagree with you or that they happen to revel in January blossoms as a sign that it won't snow west of the Cascades under 1000ft for the next ten thousand years.

 

As for the North Bend Snow Elite that pull this s**t year after year, tone it down. 

Hey, God? Why do men have nipples? 

[Minny_Weather]

Why watch Desperate Housewives when I can just look at this sub?

[Phil]

Here’s the DJF PNA. Similar structural trend to the NAO.

 

[Phil]

Here’s the DJF PNA/NAO together. Definitely a relationship of some sort. Can’t deny it now.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The January PNA has also been trending rapidly upwards since the 1950s.

 

Hmm. 4 out of the last 5 January’s have been drier than normal here.

[tomas]

You accuse me of lying and using some magical green grass camera filter when you were not even part of the discussion... poor guy!   So innocent.   

In a warped game of power, bullies generally target victims who appear different or weaker than the bullies themselves.

[Timmy]

Jesus cheeto eating Christ.

 

Last warning for both of you.

 

If you don't like how someone likes to show off how much they love early signs of spring or that they will always see more snow from their hilltop manor while the rest of you plebs will only see mud and slop, then block them.

 

Click on your name on the upper right hand bannor, click on "Manage Ignore Prefs" and then add that persons name to the list. You can block posts, their signature, and even messages.

 

If someone is directly harassing you, then not only report the post, but send me a PM with a link to the post in question. I am not going to ban someone because they disagree with you or that they happen to revel in January blossoms as a sign that it won't snow west of the Cascades under 1000ft for the next ten thousand years.

 

As for the North Bend Snow Elite that pull this s**t year after year, tone it down.

The problem is they need each other so they will never mute

[TT-SEA]

Jesus cheeto eating Christ.

 

Last warning for both of you.

 

If you don't like how someone likes to show off how much they love early signs of spring or that they will always see more snow from their hilltop manor while the rest of you plebs will only see mud and slop, then block them.

 

Click on your name on the upper right hand bannor, click on "Manage Ignore Prefs" and then add that persons name to the list. You can block posts, their signature, and even messages.

 

If someone is directly harassing you, then not only report the post, but send me a PM with a link to the post in question. I am not going to ban someone because they disagree with you or that they happen to revel in January blossoms as a sign that it won't snow west of the Cascades under 1000ft for the next ten thousand years.

 

As for the North Bend Snow Elite that pull this s**t year after year, tone it down. 

 

 

Snow Elite?   

 

Not much to brag about this year... no advantage at all.    And the pic that Jesse attacked me on was from a public park and field in North Bend.   

 

Jesse and Bryant do the same thing every year.    All Bryant ever does is come here to launch personal attacks and leave.   That is what gets this going.  At least Jesse regularly contributes positively to this forum all the time.   I finally told Jesse off when he said that I am lying... which he has done repeatedly this year.   

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, that’s one of the benefits of the +PNA trend since the 1950s. Less frequent troughing over the Intermountain West = less frequent tornado patterns over the Plains/Southeast.

 

In other words, -PNA kills more people than +PNA.

 

Wait, so you're saying -PNA usually means troughing in the West???

[stuffradio]

Programmers invented the ignore function for a reason.

[TT-SEA]

Why watch Desperate Housewives when I can just look at this sub?

 

Is that still a show?   

 

We are all Desperate Weenies here.   

[Deweydog]

62 at the station of the DEVIL.