January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

I’m still happy about the same thing that was evident 5-7 days ago. We are finally transitioning into a Niña pattern and probably have a nice, generally cool and wet six months ahead of us.

 

In other words, endless +PNA.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Both the Gem and GFS ensembles showed some nice improvement with the trough centered around the 24th/25th.

 

It's sitting at 51F here at the moment, I've got a good feeling about this upcoming pattern.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The WRF maps for Saturday and Sunday actually show the surface pattern in my snow melting nightmares.    I have seen many situations like this destroy our snow cover with a roaring south wind for hours and sometimes days.  

 

It may change.. for the worse and better.

[TT-SEA]

It may change.. for the worse and better.

 

I am not actually worried about ruining a snow cover... it just reminds of a scenario that has done that many times here.    It looks like 3-4 days in a row of strong (but chilly) southerly winds.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS looks fabulous. Possible snow/ice overrunning event next Wednesday and then snow down to sea level later in the run.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Cooler 43F here.

 

Hopefully something good happens before early February. Snow in the first week of February doesn’t really work for my schedule.

 

Where are you going?

[Gradient Keeper]

I’m still happy about the same thing that was evident 5-7 days ago. We are finally transitioning into a Niña pattern and probably have a nice, generally cool and wet six months ahead of us.

Yep, and we just need that one undercutting low to make things really fun. That can't be ruled out in the Day 6-10 period.

 

--

6z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

JMA is chilly...

 

881D13B5-C881-4A1A-89ED-FA82F1F6C245.png

Looks cold.

[Phil]

You know Phil says some respectable things but if he doesn't get his temper in check he will be the Imus of the meteorological world.

What makes you think I have a short temper? Is it because I sometimes use mean words on a weather forum? That’s not much to go off.

 

Just don’t twist my words around or throw backhanded compliments my way, and you won’t have to worry about me being a d**k.

[ShawniganLake]

Where are you going?

Nowhere exciting. Just up to Parksville for the week. But it’s a pain to find someone to cover my snow removal contracts.

[TT-SEA]

Nowhere exciting. Just up to Parksville for the week. But it’s a pain to find someone to cover my snow removal contracts.

 

Ahhhh.

[Phil]

Interesting talk of the PV breaking down at the end of the month, and making things fun for everyone into Feb.

We’re overdue for one. It’s been 5 years now..second longest SSW drought on record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good night shift upcoming. My body is ready.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5 nice improvements

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Cooler 43F here.

 

Hopefully something good happens before early February. Snow in the first week of February doesn’t really work for my schedule.

 

Up to 52F here now, seems to be warming up again. The last week of January / first week of February seem to be the time for things to come together if we're going to get a blast out of this pattern.

[ShawniganLake]

Ahhhh.

Although, we are considering going south for a week later in February/March. I’ve got a ton of points on my credit card that I could use up

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 decent, chilly trough. Upstream just no blocking. Not good enough, but I still like the improvements in the mid range.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/144/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

00z ECMWF Day 5 nice improvements

 

 

 

 

Placement of the low on Sunday is more favorable than the GFS/WRF as well.     There is some offshore flow ahead of the front late Saturday night and there is a little lowland snow up here on Sunday morning.    Offshore flow can do much more with marginal set ups. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Although, we are considering going south for a week later in February/March. I’ve got a ton of points on my credit card that I could use up

 

How far south?

 

You must be talking about the US... you are about as far south as you can go in Canada. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Pattern upstream goes to poo quickly

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/168/500h_anom.na.png

[DareDuck]

Placement of the low on Sunday is more favorable than the GFS/WRF as well. There is some offshore flow ahead of the front late Saturday night and there is a little lowland snow up here on Sunday morning. Offshore flow can do much more with marginal set ups.

 

Similar to the GFS for my area that time period. 1-2” would be fun to see given this winter. How does that total period look?

[ShawniganLake]

How far south?

 

You must be talking about the US... you are about as far south as you can go in Canada.

Like way south. California, Mexico or the Caribbean. We are going to have to look into the Zika virus though, travelling with our little one. I’m guessing it was being overblown by the media.

[TT-SEA]

Like way south. California, Mexico or the Caribbean. We are going to have to look into the Zika virus though, travelling with our little one. I’m guessing it was being overblown by the media.

 

Zika is only a concern for pregnant women right?   

 

We avoid Mexico... too many safety concerns down there.    Hawaii has perfect weather all year around and is in the US... much easier.   Unless of course there are missile warnings.    

[TT-SEA]

Similar to the GFS for my area that time period. 1-2” would be fun to see given this winter. How does that total period look?

 

Total snow through day 8... in King County this all occurs early Sunday morning.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow through day 8... in King County this all occurs early Sunday morning.

 

At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period.

 

Nothing for Bryant though

[TT-SEA]

At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period.

 

Nothing for Bryant though

 

Yeah... things are definitely looking a little better for the weekend system and I trust the detailed ECMWF maps by far over the WRF.   There might be some lowland snow as the flow goes offshore in between systems.   The WRF shows no break in the southerly flow.  

[ShawniganLake]

Zika is only a concern for pregnant women right?

 

We avoid Mexico... too many safety concerns down there. Hawaii has perfect weather all year around and is in the US... much easier. Unless of course there are missile warnings.

I’m just not sure about Zika. Will have to get a doctors opinion.

 

We’d love to go back to Punta Cana or Cuba too. Cuba is a much shorter flight. Hawaii is an option but seems super expensive.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah... things are definitely looking a little better for the weekend system and I trust the detailed ECMWF maps by far over the WRF. There might be some lowland snow as the flow goes offshore in between systems. The WRF shows no break in the southerly flow.

Hope the details improve in our favor over the next few runs.

[TT-SEA]

I’m just not sure about Zika. Will have to get a doctors opinion.

 

We’d love to go back to Punta Cana or Cuba too. Cuba is a much shorter flight. Hawaii is an option but seems super expensive.

 

 

Both those places were grazed by Irma right?    

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF still looks sort of blocky in the 9-10 day period... persistent zonal flow is hard to come by this winter.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Both those places were grazed by Irma right?

Never thought of that, but probably.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow Euro comes close but not quite. This location sucks.

[Bryant]

At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period.

 

Nothing for Bryant though

Lol, can you draw a dot where I am on that map?

[HighlandExperience]

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

Just let the dog out... some light rain has fallen and it feels more humid and the air has that distinct smell of rain in the warm season. Smells like fresh cut grass even though there is no fresh cut grass. Hard to describe... but everyone knows that smell and it does not happen too often here in the winter. It was immediately noticeable upon opening the door.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just let the dog out... some light rain has fallen and it feels more humid and the air has that distinct smell of rain in the warm season. Smells like fresh cut grass even though there is no fresh cut grass. Hard to describe... but everyone knows that smell and it does not happen too often here in the winter. It was immediately noticeable upon opening the door.

I just inhaled some grass too

[TT-SEA]

I just inhaled some grass too

Clever.

[crf450ish]

Lol.. because climo wins 95% of the time. Kinda a safe bet. The pattern is pretty consistent with every year around here.

I’m well aware of the weather patterns here and climo. It’s called being near an ocean. Only place exempt from that rule is AK. Oceananic influences don’t always apply to weather there.