January Weather In the PNW

[BLI snowman]

63 at SEA on the hour.

 

I think we are now past peak heating for the day... it is January after all.

 

5 minute obs show them at 64, which ties the monthly record. We'll see, sometimes those intra-hour obs are rounded incorrectly.

[TT-SEA]

Certainly an #MLK to remember in the central Puget Sound!

 

Have to give you credit on a great forecast!  

[Deweydog]

18z ALERT!

[TT-SEA]

18z ALERT!

 

Ice storm in Portland in 9 days??  

[Deweydog]

Have to give you credit on a great forecast!

I can't take the credit. I Hoovered a lot of my knowledge for this home run forecast from Flatiron.

[ShawniganLake]

Ice storm in Portland in 9 days??

That is an interesting setup. Could deliver for someone. That’s snow up here for sure.

[TT-SEA]

That is an interesting setup. Could deliver for someone. That’s snow up here for sure.

 

Unfortunately its the 18Z run at 9-10 days out.   

[ShawniganLake]

Unfortunately its the 18Z run at 9-10 days out.

Unfortunately, yes.

You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out!

[Bryant]

Snow Elite?

 

Not much to brag about this year... no advantage at all. And the pic that Jesse attacked me on was from a public park and field in North Bend.

 

Jesse and Bryant do the same thing every year. All Bryant ever does is come here to launch personal attacks and leave. That is what gets this going. At least Jesse regularly contributes positively to this forum all the time. I finally told Jesse off when he said that I am lying... which he has done repeatedly this year.

I used to contribute a lot of MJO material, had a thread to teach others all the knowledge I had gained from research. I still could contribute, but honestly, I have no motivation to do so with the I see on here daily from you. Any potential hype or excitement and you immediately throw a wet blanket over it because that's just the kind of person you are.

[van city]

Unfortunately, yes.

You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out!

That's for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately, yes.

You like tracking dry days up to 10 days out!

 

Yes... but I never trust the 18Z GFS. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yes... but I never trust the 18Z GFS.

The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.

[TT-SEA]

I used to contribute a lot of MJO material, had a thread to teach others all the knowledge I had gained from research. I still could contribute, but honestly, I have no motivation to do so with the s**t I see on here daily from you. Any potential hype or excitement and you immediately throw a wet blanket over it because that's just the kind of person you are.

 

Right.  

 

When there is something to track then I am totally on board... like with the Christmas event.   Like with many events in the past.

 

If I am a wet blanket and I am always wrong and great things are always happening then my posts would not have any effect on you... but you seem to be saying that reality is often a wet blanket around here (figuratively and literally).

 

I have been as excited as a kid in a candy store when things actually work out.      

 

I was on board with Jim since late summer.   Never doubted his predictions based on all the indices lining up this year and never said one negative word to him about his seasonal forecast.   And often spoke up to agree with him.   I still think he might be right in February.  

[TT-SEA]

The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.

 

Phil says so.   

 

We will see on the 00Z run.   I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way.  

[MossMan]

[ShawniganLake]

Phil says so.

 

We will see on the 00Z run. I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way.

Speaking of the 18z. Looks cold, only 2 weeks away.

[Phil]

Phil says so.

 

We will see on the 00Z run. I have seen the 18Z run be the first to show something and it actually leads the way.

Uh oh. What did I supposedly say this time?

[TT-SEA]

Oh no. What did I supposedly say this time?

 

The 18Z run is less reliable?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seattle 64 today. -1 in 3 weeks?!

[Phil]

The 18Z run is less reliable?

I’ve never said any such thing.

 

Quite the opposite, in fact. There’s no statistically significant difference in regards to skill scores between the four daily GFS runs, since radiosonde data is a relatively minor component of the aggregate of data ingested.

[TT-SEA]

I’ve never said any such thing.

 

Quite the opposite, in fact. There’s no statistically significant difference between any of the GFS runs since radiosonde data is a relatively minor component of the aggregate of data ingested.

 

Ahhh... must have been someone else.   Good to know... especially today with a great 18Z run!  

[Phil]

Clown range is called clown range for a reason.

 

Verification scores drop almost to “coin-toss” levels of statistical significance at some point within the D11-14 period (usually).

[Phil]

In theory, the 18z GFS is plausible.

 

As the upper level jet extends in the NW-Pacific, it can sometimes force a NE-Pacific wavebreak response and dump that last little load of polar air into the Northwest before things begin to progress forward and the pattern terminates.

 

There’s plenty of historical precedent. Whether that response actually occurs, however, depends on the preconditioning beforehand.

[Deweydog]

Next week's snow is gonna have trouble sticking with such warm ground temperatures.

[Geos]

Tomorrow is going to feel like winter now... low to mid 50s with showers.

 

No kidding. Was 64 here in Bothell. I think a lot of people headed out of work early today. A lot of people outside today. 

[TT-SEA]

No kidding. Was 64 here in Bothell. I think a lot of people headed out of work early today. A lot of people outside today. 

 

Glad I was able to share our downslope warming with the entire Seattle area on the last day. 

[AbbyJr]

[Bryant]

If I am a wet blanket and I am always wrong and great things are always happening then my posts would not have any effect on you... but you seem to be saying that reality is often a wet blanket around here (figuratively and literally).

Nope, that is not what I "seem" to be saying. Anytime we get some hype or excitement in here, you're the first one to try and bring everyone back down to earth. It bothers you when people get excited, especially Jim. It's pathetic, and worst part is, you enjoy being a buzz kill

[TT-SEA]

Nope, that is not what I "seem" to be saying. Anytime we get some hype or excitement in here, you're the first one to try and bring everyone back down to earth. It bothers you when people get excited, especially Jim. It's pathetic, and worst part is, you enjoy being a buzz kill

 

Again... if I was doing this and always wrong then who cares?    You only care because its usually correct.  

 

And if it was true that I always shoot everything down then why have I been supportive of Jim's seasonal forecast since late summer?    Find one time in the last 6 months that I have told Jim that his seasonal forecast was wrong.   Good luck.   

 

Many times... you come on here and barely even read through the detail and just attack me by default.    And leave.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.

Actually this is not true. There was a pretty extensive write up on here about this a few years ago. I think It has something to do how the various runs intialize data. I will see if I can find it.

[Deweydog]

Thunderstorms rolling up the valley.

 

Bye heatwave!

[TT-SEA]

Official high at SEA was 64.    

 

Looking at the WRCC data... it appears that the monthly record for January is 64 degrees set on 1/20/1981.    Is that correct?

[umadbro]

It was 51 next to KATU today in downtown at 630 this morning. Beautiful day outside. Made work so much easier.

[Front Ranger]

Have to give you credit on a great forecast!

Dewey clearly has a knack for zeroing in on blowtorch periods.

[Front Ranger]

The whole 18z thing is silly. Is it really any different than the other GFS runs.

Negligible difference in accuracy, especially that far out.

[TT-SEA]

SEA NWS confirms...

 

Offshore flow, sunshine, and low-level mixing helped
propel Sea-Tac to tie its all-time record January high of 64F

this afternoon.

 

They finish the AFD with this little gem...

 

Hope you enjoyed today. There are no more dry 24-hour periods in
the forecast for the next week.

[Deweydog]

Dewey clearly has a knack for zeroing in on blowtorch periods.

We are all following your lead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light showers and 45. A seasonally warm 50/35 today.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... they choose to do this in the middle of winter instead of in July or August?

 

BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING JANUARY 15 2018..THE KATX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE
FOR THE PLANNED SERVICE LIFE EXTENSION PROJECT. THIS IS A MAJOR PROJECT THAT RE
QUIRES THE RADAR BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH THURSDAY JANUARY 18 2018. ADJACENT RA
DAR WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD INCLUDING THE KLGX WA COASTAL RADAR
...KRTX AT PORTLAND OREGON...KPDT AT PENDLETON...AND KOTX AT SPOKANE.

[Front Ranger]

We are all following your lead.

 

Like the 18z, I will never lead you astray.