January Weather In the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coldest air goes east on the Euro now

 

On to 2018-19

[TT-SEA]

The best thing anyone can do is ignore you. Depriving you of the attention you so crave. So back to it!

 

Sounds good.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows mid to upper 40s with showers on Saturday and pretty strong southerly winds.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Coldest air goes east on the Euro now

 

On to 2018-19

Now?

 

Has it ever showed cold air heading for us in the next 5 days?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The best thing anyone can do is ignore you. Depriving you of the attention you so crave. So back to it!

 

Good lord...Maybe you can both ignore each other...

[BLI snowman]

Looks like overhyped garbage.

 

It was another really warm year nationally. Not sure what you think is being hyped.

[TT-SEA]

Good lord...Maybe you can both ignore each other...

 

Sounds good.

[BLI snowman]

Now?

 

Has it ever showed cold air heading for us in the next 5 days?

 

The 44 degree rain with southerly flow in Monmouth is up to 45.

[Deweydog]

That's it...

 

No one post another map about anything ever.

 

Now go to your rooms.

[TT-SEA]

Total snowfall through Sunday evening...

 

00Z run

 

 

 

New 12Z run:

 

[Deweydog]

The exciting thing is Jesse's great grandpa and Tim's grandpa had this EXACT same repartee (only with slate etchings) at this time in 1996.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total snowfall through Sunday evening...

 

00Z run

 

 

 

New 12Z run:

 

 

I am starting to feel like these EURO maps are total garbage. No way we have that must snow in the foothills and coast range given what is presently modeled. 

[TT-SEA]

I am starting to feel like these EURO maps are total garbage. No way we have that must snow in the foothills and coast range given what is presently modeled. 

 

The ECMWF tends to overstate snowfall.   But I still post images of inflated snowfall totals.   

 

There is absolutely no way there is any snow at my house over the weekend per the 12Z ECMWF... strong southerly flow and 925 temp above freezing.  

[Jesse]

It was another really warm year nationally. Not sure what you think is being hyped.

Mostly the “climate disaster” stuff. It was a warm year but its pretty silly to blame every costly storm directly on global warming.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF also screws us for early next week.  

 

Monday is much warmer on the 12Z run. 

 

 

00Z run:

 

 

12Z run:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mostly the “climate disaster” stuff. It was a warm year but its pretty silly to blame every costly storm directly on global warming.

 

Why not. Makes it nice and clean to have a scapegoat for everything. If its weather = global warming. Anything else that sucks = Trump.

[BLI snowman]

Mostly the “climate disaster” stuff. It was a warm year but its pretty silly to blame every costly storm directly on global warming.

 

I agree that the "climate disasters" bit makes no sense. Even the slightest conflation of individual weather events and climate is pretty irritating.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does give us a break in the pattern though... similar to the 12Z GFS early next week.

 

This is day 8 (Tuesday) and the ECMWF surface maps show partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid to upper 40s that day.    

 

[Jesse]

I agree that the "climate disasters" bit makes no sense. Even the slightest conflation of individual weather events and climate is pretty irritating.

Then stay away from the web pages of The Sierra Club, Greenpeace or any other mainstream environmental group. They all have become a ridiculous one note tune. And I say this as a card carrying treehugger myself.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks like a steaming pile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF does give us a break in the pattern though... similar to the 12Z GFS early next week.

 

This is day 8 (Tuesday) and the ECMWF surface maps show partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid to upper 40s that day.    

 

 

Thank God! We haven't had any sunny nice days in forever...

 

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF does give us a break in the pattern though... similar to the 12Z GFS early next week.

 

This is day 8 (Tuesday) and the ECMWF surface maps show partly sunny and dry with highs in the mid to upper 40s that day.

 

Haha. We definitely need a break.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks like a steaming pile.

 

It has taken away all chances of the lowland snow completely.   

 

I now shift my focus back to finding the dry days with some sun.   

[Jesse]

Mountain snow!

[TT-SEA]

Thank God! We haven't had any sunny nice days in forever...

 

 

 

 

Well... that would be a week away.    One day a week is too much?     It is raining again the next day.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then stay away from the web pages of The Sierra Club, Greenpeace or any other mainstream environmental group. They all have become a ridiculous one note tune. And I say this as a card carrying treehugger myself.

 

I have long thought the whole "climate change" hysteria was unfortunate because it distracts from the once paramount issue of conservation. In the brave fight to save the planet, the idea of setting aside and protecting our natural heritage almost seems to have been forgotten...

[ShawniganLake]

It has taken away all chances of the lowland snow completely.

 

I now shift my focus back to finding the dry days with some sun.

I could go for something interesting. A legitimate rainstorm (AR). Perhaps a major windstorm would be nice.

[TT-SEA]

OK... maybe two days without rain (and some sun) next week.    

 

Thursday looks nice on the 12Z ECMWF as well. 

 

[TT-SEA]

I could go for something interesting. A legitimate rainstorm (AR). Perhaps a major windstorm would be nice.

 

You will get 7 straight days of rain... starting tomorrow.    How is that not exciting?   

[Jesse]

I have long thought the whole "climate change" hysteria was unfortunate because it distracts from the once paramount issue of conservation. In the brave fight to save the planet, the idea of setting aside and protecting our natural heritage almost seems to have been forgotten...

I agree. It has become an unfortunate catch all. I used to be a monthly donor to the Sierra Club.

[ShawniganLake]

You will get 7 straight days of rain... starting tomorrow. How is that not exciting?

Not exciting. It looks pretty showery overall. Give me a 5” rain day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not exciting. It looks pretty showery overall. Give me a 5” rain day.

 

Oregon Natural Desert Association has actually helped score some pretty big legislative victories with the Spring Basin and Badlands wilderness areas. I've donated to them from time to time. They have some pretty cool volunteer opportunities such as pulling barb wire fencing at Hart Mtn, etc... That I would love to participate in some day. 

[TT-SEA]

Not exciting. It looks pretty showery overall. Give me a 5” rain day.

 

I also like focusing the rain in heavy bursts.   But nature usually gives it to us in small, daily doses... and we get nothing but climo for the next week.  

[Jesse]

Oregon Natural Desert Association has actually helped score some pretty big legislative victories with the Spring Basin and Badlands wilderness areas. I've donated to them from time to time. They have some pretty cool volunteer opportunities such as pulling barb wire fencing at Hart Mtn, etc... That I would love to participate in some day.

I am assuming this was meant for me.

 

Yes, I watched the Oregon field guide episode about that one. Would be a great opportunity in a great part of the state. There are others of course too, like the Nature Conservancy, that haven’t become completely consumed with global warming orthodoxy, and still actually care about preserving the land beyond its service as a “carbon sink”.

[Deweydog]

I agree the climate disaster porn aspect of the article is distracting and irritating.

 

I guess I was more interested in the data itself. 21 consecutive years warmer than the 100-year average? How do climate change deniers account for this?

Acronyms.

[Jesse]

Fifth consecutive day well into the 50s at PDX. With these huge positive anoms to overcome, and the bite being taken out of the upcoming cool period, a below average or even near normal January is starting to look like a tough road.

[Deweydog]

Fifth consecutive day well into the 50s at PDX. With these huge positive anoms to overcome, and the bite being taken out of the upcoming cool period, a below average or even near normal January is starting to look like a tough road.

At least we've essentially sealed the deal that the second half will be cooler than the first.

[Jesse]

At least we've essentially sealed the deal that the second half will be cooler than the first.

That happened the minute you predicted the opposite a few weeks ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fifth consecutive day well into the 50s at PDX. With these huge positive anoms to overcome, and the bite being taken out of the upcoming cool period, a below average or even near normal January is starting to look like a tough road.

 

Maybe it is time to start thinking about if we can pull off a top 10 warm January!

[Jesse]

Maybe it is time to start thinking about if we can pull off a top 10 warm January!

I doubt that is in the cards either.