January Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'd say it's a long way from 'coming together,' breh...

That's why I said slowly. This is not going to be a fast process.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record, my grass is a lackluster green. Which is the color it is every winter. 

 

[Deweydog]

Last winter at this time my grass was shock white.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem tied a record from 2011 today...We all know how that February-May period ended up...

[Deweydog]

For the record, my grass is a lackluster green. Which is the color it is every winter.

 

That swing is savage.

[Jesse]

Salem tied a record from 2011 today...We all know how that February-May period ended up...

That year went on to have an awesome summer...and ended up our coldest year overall since 1985.

 

I was looking back and it is actually pretty surprising how many La Niña winters that turned colder later had spells of 55-60 degree warmth at PDX in early to mid January. Even going back to the 1950s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That year went on to have an awesome summer...and ended up our coldest year overall since 1985.

 

I was looking back and it is actually pretty surprising how many La Niña winters that turned colder later had spells of 55-60 degree warmth at PDX in early to mid January. Even going back to the 1950s.

 

Yeah, it was a good year. It makes sense given the ENSO state we will get some climo payback in the coming months. This weekend was beautiful, if we are going to torch it may as well be sunny.

[Phil]

Looked a bit more thoroughly at guidance and MJO climatology this afternoon, then ran seasonal correlations based on current boundary conditions

 

Barring something strange, a generally -PNA/-NAO dominated pattern is favored to persist from Jan 19th to Jan 30th, +/- a few days on the end. The next upper level jet extension and subsequent move into +PNA should occur at the very end of the month, and/or early February.

[Jesse]

Looked a bit more thoroughly at guidance and MJO climatology this afternoon, then ran seasonal correlations based on current boundary conditions

 

Barring something strange, a generally -PNA/-NAO dominated pattern is favored to persist from Jan 19th to Jan 30th, +/- a few days on the end. The next upper level jet extension and subsequent move into +PNA should occur at the very end of the month, and/or early February.

Since your definition of +PNA seems to be different from how most of us think of it here, what would you expect as far as observed weather during said +PNA spell?

[Phil]

Since your definition of +PNA seems to be different from how most of us think of it here, what would you expect as far as observed weather during said +PNA spell?

Well given the climatology for said jet extensions under late winter -ENSO/mixed QBO boundary conditions, it looks like less of a “ridgy” +PNA, and more GOA storminess and perhaps more +EPO (though that part is debatable).

 

So, definitely more storminess, but it might end up translating to warmer conditions at the surface without inversions? I’m not sure how that works in your region.

[Phil]

Certainly, February won’t be a December repeat. The waveguide and Z-cell seasonality almost completely precludes that this year, even with the warm pool forcing next month.

[Phil]

Lol Vikings. Tim must be giddy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Lol Vikings. Tim must be giddy.

Saints choked! Horrible way to lose.

[Deweydog]

What the **** was that???

[Jesse]

What the **** was that???

 

Probably something for the foosball subforum.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those not watching that masterpiece definitely missed out.

[TT-SEA]

What the **** was that???

Pure insanity. One in a million play.

[Timmy]

Pure insanity. One in a million play.

Very bad tackle!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49/39 today!

 

Average High Jan 1-14, 2018: 46.5

Average High Jan 1-14, 2017: 32,1

 

Been a little warmer this year! However, decent chance the back half of January 2018 ends up cooler than last year. 

[Tyler Mode]

So much for cold air to draw from anytime soon.  Those areas near the Alaska/Canada border are running about 80 degrees warmer than they were last week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So much for cold air to draw from anytime soon.  Those areas near the Alaska/Canada border are running about 80 degrees warmer than they were last week.

 

Yikes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crazy finish to that game.

 

And yes, all the coldest air remains over on the other side of the planet.  We missed our chance and will have to "enjoy" sloppy onshore flow snow at best.  But it'll be better than the nothing we have had so far.

[Jesse]

Crazy finish to that game.

 

And yes, all the coldest air remains over on the other side of the planet.  We missed our chance and will have to "enjoy" sloppy onshore flow snow at best.  But it'll be better than the nothing we have had so far.

 

Temperatures up there right now have little bearing on where they will be 7-10 days from now.

[AbbyJr]

I think this winter is a bust because the La Nina ended up being "east based" meaning the coldest SST's were in the eastern equatorial regions. I do think there is potential for a colder than normal setup, which could bring some marginal snow chances for some, but I have low confidence that the PNW will see any real arctic air and widespread snow events. I could be wrong and I hope I am.

[Phil]

I think this winter is a bust because the La Nina ended up being "east based" meaning the coldest SST's were in the eastern equatorial regions. I do think there is potential for a colder than normal setup, which could bring some marginal snow chances for some, but I have low confidence that the PNW will see any real arctic air and widespread snow events. I could be wrong and I hope I am.

I don’t think that explains it. The Niña of 1988/89 was also east-based, as was that of 2013/14. The vast majority of Niñas (and Niños) during the LIA were also east-based.

[weatherfan2012]

I don’t think that explains it. The Niña of 1988/89 was also east-based, as was that of 2013/14. The vast majority of Niñas (and Niños) during the LIA were also east-based.

yeah I have to agree with you here I doubt the niña being East based was the reason there are other factors involved then just enso.

[crf450ish]

This place is becoming Bipolar

[TT-SEA]

Lol Vikings. Tim must be giddy.

 

From my facebook feed... it would appear that the entire state of Minnesota is delirious right now.    I still cannot believe it happened.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I didn't check. I already told you where to look last time.

I guess I lost the link. Map I found shows about a half inch of snow or so by next Sat. Strangely PDX downtown has little to none.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope we have some great 00z runs and people settle down a little. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I guess I lost the link. Map I found shows about a half inch of snow or so by next Sat. Strangely PDX downtown has little to none.

http://wx.graphics/

[TigerWoodsLibido]

http://wx.graphics/

 

Thank you

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://wx.graphics/

 

Great site!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Thank you

You're welcome.

[TT-SEA]

Great site!

 

In case you missed it... this is another very cool site.    They don't have the ECMWF yet but the visual representation of the models is awesome.

 

https://www.ventusky.com/

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Great site!

Yeah has all the teleconnection indices and weeklies. I'm hoping it will stay free.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case you missed it... this is another very cool site.    They don't have the ECMWF yet but the visual representation of the models is awesome.

 

https://www.ventusky.com/

 

Thanks! I actually already have this one bookmarked!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time to run that 00z and see what happens!

 

Looking at the 12z EURO for Salem, it was definitely a step in the right direction. Still highs low 40s, but yesterday's 12z was showing highs in the upper40s in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.

[TT-SEA]

Time to run that 00z and see what happens!

 

Looking at the 12z EURO for Salem, it was definitely a step in the right direction. Still highs low 40s, but yesterday's 12z was showing highs in the upper40s in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.

 

The 12Z ECMWF was definitely the chilliest run for all of the lowlands in many days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the PNA is progged to stay negative for a while...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018011412.png