TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The Euro is going to piss us off Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 It’s only to 84hrs, but I think this run is gonna suck a**. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 5 - What's with that funky really strong cut-off low sandwiched between the two high pressure cells? Silly EUROhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 It’s only to 84hrs, but I think this run is gonna suck a**. This run looks bad for CA to this point, but Day 5 looks like the trough is digging further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 This run looks bad for CA to this point, but Day 5 looks like the trough is digging further south.I think the ridge goes, but the surf zone is already equatorward on this run by 84hrs, which suggests to me that the NPAC block will be weaker and/or farther west this run in the d7-10 range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 6 - That's one deep a** troughhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The Greenland Block is sexy af, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 7http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 At one week out the ECMWF certainly agrees with the GFS on very low AO. Jan 1969 had a good trifecta of very minus PNA, NAO, and AO. The GFS has the PNA at -3 at day 10. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 8 NOPEhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well, this run is almost certainly wrong over Eurasia and the NW-Pacific, regardless of how it turns out. Edit: Eh, well, it probably is. I don’t want to speak too confidently about something that far off. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/216/500h_anom.na.png Man, that’s almost 100% reliant on the Greenland/Baffin Bay block. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Day 10 I would wager that the EPS will be better than this Op run.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011400/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Is that a retracted EPAC Hadley Cell @ D10? If that verifies, it’d be more shocking than Trump winning the 2016 election. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Was nice to see some positivity from the GFS on here. Tim raining on the parade was nothing unexpected. Dewey sarcastically feeling bad for me gave me a good laugh ❤ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 At one week out the ECMWF certainly agrees with the GFS on very low AO. Jan 1969 had a good trifecta of very minus PNA, NAO, and AO. The GFS has the PNA at -3 at day 10.January 1943 had -WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO. Would be crazy to repeat that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 (I hit the delete button instead of the edit button. Apologies for the repost). I didn’t screw the whole thing up. December went pretty much how I thought, and I never made an “Xmas forecast”. The progression after Xmas got messed up for a number of reasons, but I didn’t *plan* for that to happen. I tried to get it right, but you know, sometimes it just doesn’t work out that way. If you think you can do better, then by all means, make your own seasonal forecast and post it here. I’m sure we’d all be interested in reading it. Oh, and FWIW, I’m perfectly happy. Most of my friends think of me as the jester type, actually. And unlike your sorry a**, I don’t feel the need to degrade women or initiate character attacks.Fair enough. I don't degrade women. They are just jokes. I do know that long range forecasts are a very fickle thing, a lot like people. You do know that anything past 5 days is around 15-20% accuracy. If that. It's ok to stick your neck out there but we all know it is a guess, a poor guess at best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Fog advisory has been issued for Vancouver Island. That’s exciting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Fair enough. I don't degrade women. They are just jokes. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 January 1943 had -WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO. Would be crazy to repeat that. I'm not surprised. That was some extreme blocking on that one. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Fog advisory has been issued for Vancouver Island. That’s exciting I was going to mention the fog here is ridiculous tonight. It formed very rapidly. Probably the warmest dense fog I've ever seen in January with a current temp of 46. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Should be an interesting night shift. Didn't expect both the GFS and EC ops to show an inch of snow out to 240 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 00z EPS is weaker with the blocking. Blah. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 00Z ECMWF was a little cooler than the 12Z run.... but still does not have a day below 40 in Seattle over the next 10 days. The coolest day appears to be next Friday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 I was going to mention the fog here is ridiculous tonight. It formed very rapidly. Probably the warmest dense fog I've ever seen in January with a current temp of 46.38 with light fog here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 EPS and ECMWF control are both progressive with the pattern all the way through day 15. Mountains are certainly going to do well in this chilly onshore flow pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 38 with light fog here. 51 and clear here (53 in North Bend)... mesonet map shows lots of lows 50s along the foothills tonight. I see low 50s across parts of the Portland area as well... from Troutdale to Tigard. Impressive for the middle of the night... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Fog advisory has been issued for Vancouver Island. That’s exciting We were stuck in fog or low cloud here for much of today, but it's completely clear tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The German ICON looks promising for next weekend. I'm liking our chances from about the 20th into early February. Troughing was hard to come by in December, we now seem to be entering a pattern where the PNW will be favored for troughing. Many runs have also been showing ridging building into the Bering Strait / Western AK. IMO, there are more possibilities for this to evolve favorably than the ridgefest we had in early December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 The German ICON looks promising for next weekend. I'm liking our chances from about the 20th into early February. Troughing was hard to come by in December, we now seem to be entering a pattern where the PNW will be favored for troughing. Many runs have also been showing ridging building into the Bering Strait / Western AK. IMO, there are more possibilities for this to evolve favorably than the ridgefest we had in early December. Yeah, I completely agree. Seems probable that the Asian jet is held back near or west of the date line. If so, Winter will arrive over BC, WA, OR with full force. I like our chances now far more than back in December. I'm sticking with my January 22nd - 29th prediction. --12z GFS in 4 hours 18 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Unfortunately not much hope in the ensembles. If anything Phil's +PNA signal is starting to emerge by the end of the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Typical January morning... 57 degrees in Snoqualmie and 54 in North Bend at 6:30 a.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Typical January morning... 57 degrees in Snoqualmie and 54 in North Bend at 6:30 a.m. Currently sitting at 40 here under clear skies. About as warm as it gets this time of year with clear skies and calm winds... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 CFS now showing a very strong cold signal for February. It shows conditions below normal Jan. 20-27 and then rebounding to near normal 27-Feb. 3, before going well below average the next 3 weeks. And wet...This would be -PNA I assume... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Mid 50s right now on the Oregon coast. Unreal. Most valley locations are in the 30s, save PDX which is at 45. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2018 Report Share Posted January 14, 2018 Currently 34 and clear. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.