Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 #2006 This month has been a dead ringer. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 As we already knew, the GEFS says, "NOPE, but I hope you liked the Op run. Better luck next time, next Winter haha!" not cool to rub it in like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Wait. I jumped the gun. Colder members showing up after Day 10-12. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 E74AB173-E95B-44E1-9304-6C0A7A6B5A07.pngWell the GEM Ensembles improved. Hmmm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Well the GEM Ensembles improved. Hmmm.Bigly Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 I don't really look at it as a WA vs OR thing. Take a look at the lowland sites with good records both winters. And I don't really consider eastern OR/WA as part of the same climate region as the western lowlands, so I'm just looking at those. SEA 2008-09: 23.3"2016-17: 11.2" Seattle WFO 2008-09: 11.9"2016-17: 3.6" Cedar Lake (King County foothills)2008-09: 125.4"2016-17: 104.3" Clearbrook2008-09: 32.5"2016-17: 38.7" PDX 2008-09: 24.2"2016-17: 11.2" Silver Creek Falls 2008-09: 45"2016-17: 38" Dallas 2008-09: 7.5"2016-17: 8.9" Corvallis 2008-09: 5.4"2016-17: 3.3" Cottage Grove 2008-09: 6.4"2016-17: 3.3" They were pretty close some places, but with others 2008-09 blew 2016-17 away.Yeah silver falls probably actually had more snow than that in 08-09. The number for last winter is probably fairly accurate for the park. It’s about more than just snow though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 That Dallas number from last winter is way to low, they did better than almost anyone in the valley last year, probably closer to 20”. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 00z ECMWF initializing. Any improvements you think? I'll say unfortunately no, or rather negligible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 00z ECMWF initializing. Any improvements you think? I'll say unfortunately no, or rather negligible.Define "improvement." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Define "improvement."Ridge further west, stronger, amplified, and merges with high latitude block. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 This month has been a dead ringer. MonthTDeptUS.png Jan06TDeptUS.pngMaps! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 The clown range 00z GFS actually...goes there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018013000&fh=48 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Amplified phase 7/warm pool MJOs are notorious for bombarding the vortex. So, it’s possible.. Theoretically, it’s the only plausible way to cut short what would otherwise be a 4-week ridge-fest. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Usually with wave-2 the mother vortice gets sent into Eurasia while the daughter vortice ends up over North America. The 00z GFS would be an unusual progression by historical standards. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 00z ECMWF Day 7. NOPEhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Usually with wave-2 the mother vortice gets sent into Eurasia while the daughter vortice ends up over North America. The 00z GFS would be an unusual progression by historical standards.And our only chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Maps!#lostwithouthem Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Day 8-9 trying to go somewherehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Day 8-9 trying to go somewherehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/216/500h_anom.na.pngThe cold won’t come anywhere close this run. Coupled baratropic PV w/ mass displaced poleward too far upstream. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Day 10 closehttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018013000/240/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Euro looks better. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No.· Reply · 7hours ago Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN. --6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No. · Reply · 7hours ago Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN. --6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutesWha happens when you go all in? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Another interesting stat... SEA has had rain on 23 out of the last 24 days. That one dry day on the 14th broke up the streak or we would be approaching the January 2006 record for consecutive days with rain by next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No. · Reply · 7hours ago Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN. --6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes Certainly looks like we are still in the game here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Rob Grimes: I almost get a sense that models might flip quickly to a cold pattern. Am I expecting this? No. · Reply · 7hours ago Improved 00z ECMWF Op, Big improvements 00z GEM Ensembles. 00z GFS Op VERY GOOD. 00z GEFS improved after day 10-12. Keep this going for 2-3 more days and I may go ALL-IN. --6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutesDon’t get sucked in, man. False retrogressions in the modeling are commonplace when the PV column is displaced below 65N in Canada. Unless that motherf**ker gets taken out by a perfectly timed wave-2, its looking pretty grim. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Wha happens when you go all in?Insanity. No sleep. Track every model run. Post every image of the GFS every 6 hr frame, GEM, ECMWF, NAM, GEFS, CMCE, EPS, 500mb Composite Analogs for every run. Constant model comparisons from a previous run. Create numerous animated GIFs. Take the straws I was grasping previously and put them back in the cupboard. Call Bi-Mart, WalMart, Lowes, Home Depot to see if snow shovels are on sale as well as mittens, gloves, stocking caps, scarfs, ice treads for boots. Go to the store to stock up on milk, milk duds, bread, rice, chinese food, pizza, napkins, kleenex, paper plates, batteries, water, pop. Winterize all the windows, doors, vents, car. Not much really from the usual. --12z GFS in 8 hours 17 minutes 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 The cold won’t come anywhere close this run. Coupled baratropic PV w/ mass displaced poleward too far upstream.Looks close to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Looks close to me.Here’s D10. How many times have we seen this in the clown range? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Don’t get sucked in, man. False retrogressions in the modeling are commonplace when the PV column is displaced below 65N in Canada. Unless that motherf**ker gets taken out by a perfectly timed wave-2, its looking pretty grim.That's why I said I'd like to see 2 to probably 3 days of solid model consistency and ensemble support. --6z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Insanity. No sleep. Track every model run. Post every image of the GFS every 6 hr frame, GEM, ECMWF, NAM, GEFS, CMCE, EPS, 500mb Composite Analogs for every run. Constant model comparisons from a previous run. Create numerous animated GIFs. Take the straws I was grasping previously and put them back in the cupboard. Call Bi-Mart, WalMart, Lowes, Home Depot to see if snow shovels are on sale as well as mittens, gloves, stocking caps, scarfs, ice treads for boots. Go to the store to stock up on milk, milk duds, bread, rice, chinese food, pizza, napkins, kleenex, paper plates, batteries, water, pop. Winterize all the windows, doors, vents, car. Not much really from the usual. --12z GFS in 8 hours 17 minutesLol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape arctic cold crazy.. 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Lol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape s**t arctic cold crazy..I KNEW I forgot something! Also, tranquilizers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Reverse psychology, guys. Pretend there’s nothing coming and don’t look at the models, and you’ll get smashed. Usually works for me, lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Reverse psychology, guys. Pretend there’s nothing coming and don’t look at the models, and you’ll get smashed. Always works for me, lol.Maybe we should predict a three week megablast® for the east coast? 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Here’s D10. How many times have we seen this in the clown range? Not sure. You said it wouldn’t come close this run. Looks close to me. Not sure what else to say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Not sure. You said it wouldn’t come close this run. Looks close to me. Not sure what else to say.It’s several hundred miles away. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 At the very least it gives us something interesting to track. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Lol... u may want to add toilet paper to your list. Specially when you crap yourself when the models go ape s**t arctic cold crazy..But you said winter was over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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