January Weather In the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

Actually... you are saying that we need snow. The pattern over the next 10 days in not real good for that unfortunately.

 

Here is the snowfall map from the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days total:

 

 

 

So I guess the upcoming pattern is really good for those wanting more mild, warm front type light rain. Those people will be very happy.

Oregon really has gotten shafted in the mtn snow Dept this year

[TT-SEA]

Oregon really has gotten shafted in the mtn snow Dept this year

 

Big time.   

 

The top of Alpental has a base of 163 inches... not sure how that compares to normal but it does not seem like they are starving for snow there.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has rained every day since January 4th with the exception of the 14th.    SEA is almost 3 inches above normal for the month through yesterday.   SEA is also over 6 inches above normal for the water year which begins on 10/1... a total of almost 27 inches of rain in that time.   

 

I am actually not entirely sure it will rain at SEA today.   It all depends on the exact placement of the rain shadow this afternoon and evening.   

 

Seattle and vicinity is stealing all of California's winter rainfall as of late! We need a major change in the overall weather pattern soon that brings precipitation to a much larger portion of the west!

[Dan the Weatherman]

Oregon really has gotten shafted in the mtn snow Dept this year

 

Oregon is not alone as far as mountain snow is concerned. Most of the western half of the country with the exception of the far northern states like WA and MT have had well below normal snowfall this fall and winter, as ridging has been ultra dominant over much of the region.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle and vicinity is stealing all of California's winter rainfall as of late! We need a major change in the overall weather pattern soon that brings precipitation to a much larger portion of the west!

 

One massive rainstorm down there in the midst of nothing but dry weather all winter.  

 

It would be so nice to have a pattern change that involves a storm track through SoCal and not WA.  

[Farmboy]

[Geos]

Nice and sunny here now. Temp up to 47. Watch and see we'll end getting snow in March - when we want spring to arrive!

[TT-SEA]

Rain just south of SEA right now passing to the east... looking more likely now that the current streak will end today.

[Deweydog]

PDX pulled off a minor mild milestone today. 18th 50+ degree high of the month, moving ahead of 2015 to be the most since an amazing 23 in 1994.

[DareDuck]

PDX pulled off a mild milestone today. 18th 50+ degree high of the month, moving ahead of 2015 to be the most since an amazing 23 in 1994.

I have a question I thought of the other day that I thought would be pretty good for you. Of course we get a lot of shadowing here in central OR, but what are the key parameters I should look for when trying to see if precip will actually make it over the crest? I understand generally SW or S flow is ideal for rain, but what are other important albeit less obvious reasons for a frontal band getting completely caught up in the Cascades as opposed to it being able to push through?

[Deweydog]

I have a question I thought of the other day that I thought would be pretty good for you. Of course we get a lot of shadowing here in central OR, but what are the key parameters I should look for when trying to see if precip will actually make it over the crest? I understand generally SW or S flow is ideal for rain, but what are other important albeit less obvious reasons for a frontal band getting completely caught up in the Cascades as opposed to it being able to push through?

I think it basically comes down to the amount of isentropic lift/warm advection. If the moisture is deep enough, it will minimize the downslope/shadowing. Then obviously you guys can do well when we have an upslope setup as we saw several times last winter.

[DareDuck]

I think it basically comes down to the amount of isentropic lift/warm advection. If the moisture is deep enough, it will minimize the downslope/shadowing. Then obviously you guys can do well when we have an upslope setup as we saw several times last winter.

Thanks. So basically I’m just looking for a lot of moisture? Like high PVs? And yes my absolute favorite is the wraparound NE flow in the winter which, as you said, hammered us a few times last winter. I like a suppressed jet.

[Front Ranger]

For some reason I did not realize how wet the past few years have been. I think 2013 was so exceptionally dry down here and then the following summers so hot that it just kind of seemed like we were heading into some kind of drought.

 

But the 2014-17 was above average at pretty much every station in NW Oregon. Not as anomalously as Seattle, but you are correct it has been a wet stretch. I haven't really noticed that much. I mean yes there have been some crazy wet stretches such as February/March 2017, but it has been wet in the wet season a dry during the dry season for the most part.

 

Interestingly the record setting wet September 2013 was the only above average precip month in much of NW Oregon during the incredibly dry 2013. If that month had just had average precip, many locations would have smashed their record for driest year on record. As was, I believe some locations down here did still have their driest year on record in 2013. 

 

All true, but as far as this winter goes, there's been a very distinct N/S gradient to the precipitation.

 

[Front Ranger]

One big difference between this January and 2006 is the EPO. Late Dec 2005 - early Feb 2006 featured an incredible stretch of firehose +EPO. In January alone, the EPO daily index topped +100 21 times. 

 

In 2018, it's happened just 4 times. So despite some similarities in mild wetness (especially in the north), the large scale pattern has been far different. Been a lot more high latitude blocking this winter, just hasn't worked out well for the West.

[Deweydog]

Matt... have you watched Shameless on Netflix? Addicting as hell.

It's been on my list for awhile but I'm always slow on pulling the trigger to get started. I'm a big William H. Macy fan.

[Front Ranger]

It's been on my list for awhile but I'm always slow on pulling the trigger to get started. I'm a big William H. Macy fan.

 

Very good show. The storylines are hit and miss, but the characters are always entertaining.

[MossMan]

Massive hail/Thunderstorm a bit ago up at the Snohomish/Skagit line, looked to be about 20 cars off the freeway and several looked pretty bad according to a friend of mine. Lots of accumulation of hail/ice pellets on I-5! I must have just left the area before it hit, the sky was very ominous when I was leaving work.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Big time.   

 

The top of Alpental has a base of 163 inches... not sure how that compares to normal but it does not seem like they are starving for snow there.

 

This is some cool info.http://hyak.net/snowfallhist.html

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looked like a bit of snow mixed in on the back side of a heavy shower here today. We've been getting frequent cold showers all day, currently 39F and rainy. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently snowing not far from Shawnigan.

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/272.jpg

[TT-SEA]

I think I saw a snowflake... or maybe a soft ice pellet!

 

39 degrees.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think I saw a snowflake... or maybe a soft ice pellet!

 

39 degrees.

 

More rain to come from the looks of it, in spite of being right next to a ridge this February could still end up on the rainy side. Can't say we weren't due, the dry anomalies last year were far more substantial.

[TT-SEA]

More rain to come from the looks of it, in spite of being right next to a ridge this February could still end up on the rainy side. Can't say we weren't due, the dry anomalies last year were far more substantial.

 

At your location specifically.     Not for the rest of the area last year... or the last 4 years.   

 

I sincerely doubt we are getting payback for a tiny rain shadow hole in your area which occurred in the middle of back-to-back extremely wet years across a much wider area.    

 

And yes... the 00Z GFS shows another solid 7 days of warm front rain.   I don't mind days like today at all.   But warm front rain (and minimal mountain snow in WA and OR) for another week sounds pretty awful right now after the last 4 weeks with rain almost every day.    A week of cold sunshine would be nice... seems like we should be due for that again.   But I guess not.  

[BLI snowman]

At your location specifically. Not for the rest of the area last year... or the last 4 years.

 

I sincerely doubt we are getting payback for a tiny rain shadow hole in your area which occurred in the middle of back-to-back extremely wet years across a much wider area.

 

And yes... the 00Z GFS shows another solid 7 days of warm front rain. I don't mind days like today at all. But warm front rain (and minimal mountain snow in WA and OR) for another week sounds pretty awful right now after the last 4 weeks with rain almost every day. A week of cold sunshine would be nice... seems like we should be due for that again. But I guess not.

Been a real struggle to get any sustained offshore flow again. Would certainly help immensely at this point.

[Deweydog]

Lots of drizzle on tap.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS keeps a ridge near or over the West Coast for the next 17 days.   Almost unbelievable for the first half of February during a Nina.  

[TT-SEA]

Lots of drizzle on tap.

 

Indeed.

[Deweydog]

Down to 44 at PDX.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z GFS keeps a ridge near or over the West Coast for the next 17 days.   Almost unbelievable for the first half of February during a Nina.  

 

Big time redemption at hr 384.

 

[BLI snowman]

Big time redemption at hr 384.

 

That's the 12z.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That's the 12z.

 

You got me, I couldn't find anything good to show from the 0z run.

[Timmy]

You got me, I couldn't find anything good to show from the 0z run.

You are just a peach... don’t you have some water conservation efforts to tend to in your barren wasteland or something?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You are just a peach... don’t you have some water conservation efforts to tend to in your barren wasteland or something?

 

A few more months like this and we'll be in the clear. I'd be more concerned about all that green grass popping up around your place.

[Deweydog]

My neighbor mowed today.

[TT-SEA]

A few more months like this and we'll be in the clear. I'd be more concerned about all that green grass popping up around your place.

 

Might not matter though... it probably will not rain much from mid-July to mid-August.  That is going to put you right back in the same situation.   

[ShawniganLake]

Currently snowing not far from Shawnigan.

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/272.jpg

I’m up in Parksville now. But there was snow mixed into the rain showers most of the day when I was home.

[ShawniganLake]

My neighbor mowed today.

That should be illegal in February.

[TT-SEA]

I’m up in Parksville now. But there was snow mixed into the rain showers most of the day when I was home.

 

Thankfully you are not missing out on your snow removal contracts this week.    

 

#countyourblessings

[Deweydog]

That should be illegal in February.

Made it with a day to spare.

[TT-SEA]

That should be illegal in February.

 

Its January.