January Weather In the PNW

[Kayla]

This pattern is such a tease. One model improves in the short range, another gets worse...then one improves in the long range and the other goes the opposite direction.

 

Now you're starting to sound like Phil as well! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro has been showing anything from 2 to 7 inches for hood canal this weekend for many runs now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would like to think at some point we'll get some payback for what has thus far been an epic torch.

[snow_wizard]

Decent improvement on the 12z ECMWF.  That's good enough for now.  On another note about a third of the GEM ensemble members are insanely cold...pretty similar to the GFS ensemble.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The EURO is not to far off either.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is through 10PM Sunday.

 

As a side note, Sandpoint, ID is shown to receive 22 inches of snow this week, per this map. I can't wait for the day where I don't have to watch for minute details to line up in order to get an inch of wet snow.

 

I don't see how the WV sees even a trace of snow with BSF. The model doesn't seem to understand that.

[snow_wizard]

What’s your average low this time of year.

 

If you are talking LONG term average about 31.  Recent years more like 33 or 34.

[stuffradio]

Now you're starting to sound like Phil as well! 

It's contagious

[snow_wizard]

This is through 10PM Sunday.

 

As a side note, Sandpoint, ID is shown to receive 22 inches of snow this week, per this map. I can't wait for the day where I don't have to watch for minute details to line up in order to get an inch of wet snow.

 

Sometimes this climate is painful.  When we score it is awesome though.  I simply need to move somewhere snowier for my well being more than anything.

[snow_wizard]

I don't see how the WV sees even a trace of snow with BSF. The model doesn't seem to understand that.

 

What is WV and what is BSF?

[Phil]

It's contagious

I’m contagious.

[Timmy]

I just looked at the wrf and it shows 6-8” here Thursday and Friday. Seems bullish.

[Phil]

What is WV and what is BSF?

WV = Willamette Valley, I think. Not sure about the other one.

[Jesse]

What is WV and what is BSF?

I’m guessing BSF is boring southerly flow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This is through 10PM Sunday.

 

As a side note, Sandpoint, ID is shown to receive 22 inches of snow this week, per this map. I can't wait for the day where I don't have to watch for minute details to line up in order to get an inch of wet snow.

Thanks for posting.  I have been looking at these snow maps, as well as the weather.us maps of "accumulated total precipitation falling as snow", and have noticed a very clear trend.  I look closely since I live in snow country and  have had plenty of opportunity to see how accurate they are.

 

The trend I am talking about is to greatly exaggerate the amount of precipitation, at least for East of the mountains, in the mid range.  And as an event gets closer, the snow maps show more reasonable amounts of snow.  For example, the system tomorrow and tomorrow night will probably give us around 8 inches of snow (unless the temps are too warm to accumulate that much, which is another trend of this winter), but several days ago the ECMWF snow maps showed over 1.5 inches of precip falling as snow, now between 0.8 and 1,0  And I expect the same thing with the Friday/Saturday storm.  Right now it looks like it shows over 1.5 inches at least of precip falling as snow, but it will probably get back to reality about Wednesday or so.

 

It is almost as if the Euro doesn't see the mountains 5 days in advance, and therefore doesn't realize that precip is not as heavy over here, and then a few days before the storm, it remembers we have the Cascades and makes more realistic forecasts.

[Front Ranger]

What models are you referring to and when.

Mainly the euro and GFS recently.

[HighlandExperience]

This is through 10PM Sunday.

 

As a side note, Sandpoint, ID is shown to receive 22 inches of snow this week, per this map. I can't wait for the day where I don't have to watch for minute details to line up in order to get an inch of wet snow.

Yea where u thinking of moving?

[Jesse]

Looking like another easy jog to 50 today.

 

#BSF

 

#top10lockingin

[Jesse]

Most likely Hayden, ID... just outside of Couer D'Alene. Possibly Sandpoint if the stars align and job prospects look good enough.

I really hope it has nothing to do with certain infamous cultural elements there.

[Phil]

Terrible Euro run, as far as upstream pattern progression is concerned. This is literally a case of medium range improvements (IE: flattening of the wavetrain leading to a colder initial airmass) being an indicator of a more progressive pattern in the long run, which could allow the Arctic air to slide east in February.

[Phil]

Clown range 12z GFS is has insane Arctic air trying to enter the CONUS. Those are -42.3C 850mb temperatures over Ontario/Hudson Bay.

 

[Jesse]

Clown range 12z GFS is has insane Arctic air trying to enter the CONUS. Those are -42.3C 850mb temperatures over Ontario.

 

You are almost as much of a passive aggressive dirtbag as Tim sometimes.

[BLI snowman]

Mainly the euro and GFS recently.

 

Euro operational has never been better than mediocre with this. EPS has shifted a bit but that is expected with fantasyland stuff.

[Front Ranger]

I really hope it has nothing to do with certain infamous cultural elements there.

I find it puzzling you would say this, when to my knowledge hawkstwelve has never expressed sympathy towards those elements.

[Phil]

You are almost as much of a passive aggressive dirtbag as Tim sometimes.

If I were trolling, do you think I’d use the clown range GFS to do it?

 

Maybe I’m a bit salty over getting relentlessly attacked for honest/well-intentioned model analysis, but I’m not rooting for you guys to fail. Quite the opposite.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

FWIW, I have a bet with Bryant that I have to eat a bowl of fried crickets (and post the video) if he doesn’t get a 6”+ snowstorm this winter.

 

Trust me, I don’t want you guys to fail.

[Front Ranger]

Euro operational has never been better than mediocre with this. EPS has shifted a bit but that is expected with fantasyland stuff.

Usually when a big event is coming, the ensembles lock in to it within 10-12 days. No such luck so far.

[wx_statman]

When was the last time a -20 850 verified over western wa?

 

Might have been Nov 2010. Quillayute verified at -16.5c via the official balloon launch. Easily colder than anything else this century. You have to go back to Dec 1998 for a lower sounding over UIL. Verified at -17.5c in that one. Don't know if either event produced -20 though. Maybe over Whatcom county. 

[Front Ranger]

[Jesse]

If I were trolling, do you think I’d use the clown range GFS to do it?

 

Maybe I’m a bit salty over getting relentlessly attacked for honest/well-intentioned model analysis, but I’m not rooting for you guys to fail. Quite the opposite.

Clown range maps are trolling paydirt.

 

I don’t see anyone relentlessly attacking you. If anything I get the vibe that you wish everyone would just shut up with their own analysis and only like something if you say it’s ok to.

[BLI snowman]

Usually when a big event is coming, the ensembles lock in to it within 10-12 days. No such luck so far.

 

That's probably because a big event isn't coming.

[Jesse]

You're commenting in a public forum, my friend. No private conversations here.

 

And "I was being facetious" is an easy copout.

Not gonna dance this dance with you Flatty. Have a great day!

[Front Ranger]

That's probably because a big event isn't coming.

Until that happens, I agree.

[wx_statman]

I think it might have in Feb 2006 believe it or not, very good chance Nov 2010, maybe Dec 2008.

 

Nov 2010 really stands above anything else post-1998. The last really decent cold airmass over W. Washington was Feb 2014. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's probably because a big event isn't coming.

 

BINGO

[Front Ranger]

Not gonna dance this dance with you Flatty. Have a great day!

 

You really need to lighten up.

 

And if you can't see the irony of you inferring we shouldn't comment on the public conversations that go on in this thread, I don't know what to tell you. We all do it, all the time, so you telling me to butt out of this one is silly and ridiculous.

[Jesse]

Sunbreak!

[Jesse]

Will be pretty interested to see the 12z EPS.

[HighlandExperience]

I really hope it has nothing to do with certain infamous cultural elements there.

I wonder what it be like to live in Hayden. Not sure it’s cosmopolitan enough for my tastes. Plus I’m really not sure how great the job market is in northern Idaho.