Tony Posted February 2, 2018 Report Share Posted February 2, 2018 I told Tony yesterday, Chicago could definitely get some help off of the big lake! WPC likes mby for 2-6" Min: 20180202 14z 72hr WPC min snowfall.PNG Max: 20180202 14z 72hr WPC max snowfall.PNGIt will be interesting to see how much interaction the lake will have with this system. Models are showing it so hope it plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Snow breaks out tomorrow night and continues most of Sunday b4 ending later in the early evening (4-8"+ looks about right). 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z NAM with a lot better forcing across N IL compared to previous runs with a solid 3-4" event...the onset of the snow around midnight Sat almost like a squal line feature you see in the Spring and could be a nice "thumping" of snow....followed by the backside of the system snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z NAM with a lot better forcing across N IL compared to previous runs with a solid 3-4" event...the onset of the snow around midnight Sat almost like a squal line feature you see in the Spring and could be a nice "thumping" of snow....followed by the backside of the system snow.Good luck with this one Tom. Pattern looks great around Chi town in the coming 10 days or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z NAM 3km indicating a somewhat convective nature to the snow that develops near the SLP across N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 NAM wants to leave mby fringed big time! Punt! Looks totally north dominant. Hopefully it's just a little too amped for it's own good. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Gfs solid for Milwaukee north (5-8 ish) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Maybe a dusting for Lincoln. I would be happy with even that since theres basically nothing on the ground right now. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 LOT has issued a WWA for adjacent counties (inluding McHenry) to Lake Michigan in NE IL... Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Chicago IL302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018ILZ014-INZ001-002-031715-/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0008.180204T0600Z-180205T0000Z/Cook-Lake IN-Porter-Including the cities of Chicago, Gary, and Valparaiso302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO6 PM CST SUNDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Totalsnow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.* WHERE...In Indiana, Lake IN and Porter Counties. In Illinois,Cook County.* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities attimes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 06z NAM really likes S/C WI...MKE may be in for their biggest 24-hour snow of the season.... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020306/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png 06z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020306/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 According to the 00z EPS/Control, MSN and pretty much all of S/C WI is in the game...I like MKE area to get hit pretty good...they do quite well when the surface low takes this track across N IL, esp with Lehs potential. Locally, I'll take 3" all day to cover up the brown grass and make it feel and look like winter again... I read this from the MKE AFD issued at 5:16am as they mention the convective look on the modeling which I pointed out last night: 06Z GFS follows the NAM on increasing snow amounts. However someof that is convective in nature on the models this afternoonwhich is questionable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Latest HRRR runs are pounding the Fondy/Sheboygan area with 40/.50 qpf showing up.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Snow rapidly spreading SE from North Dakota. Some nice returns imbedded within the large area of precip. Should start snowing here by 9am or so. 1-3” expected. Tons of stuff going on around the Cities today, obviously. The snow will only add to the festivities. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 We shall see. Sticking to 3in. More I'll be happy less will be a disappointment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Midtown to money special.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 We shall see. Sticking to 3in. More I'll be happy less will be a disappointment.Latest RPM model paints 5-6" from MSN to MKE....I think they upgrade your area later today and include you in the WWA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 The ground is now once again snow covered here at my house I measured 1.5” of new snow fall overnight. The snow had quit but has just started once again with a temperature here of 20° 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 3-6"+ looking likely for all of SEMI. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 3-6"+ looking likely for all of SEMI. Seems to be north trend overnight into this morning.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 The column is already saturating here. Flakes starting to fall. The models seem to have a north trend but based on the current radar this thing looks a tad south at the moment. Whoever catches some of those heavier returns moving in from the NW are gonna do well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 The column is already saturating here. Flakes starting to fall. The models seem to have a north trend but based on the current radar this thing looks a tad south at the moment. Whoever catches some of those heavier returns moving in from the NW are gonna do well.Solid dusting here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Solid dusting hereNice. Won’t take long to accumulate today given the temps and ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Needs to go straight east to hit the was in the duluth area? Seems south to me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Still looking good for 4-6 ish Hrrr/rap both with 7+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Weenie band pop up over the metro. Good flake size. We’re off to a fast start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Still looking good for 4-6 ishHrrr/rap both with 7+You’re in the sweet spot. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Looking pretty promising on radar. Talk about the Minnesota experience for those here for the super bowl! Cold, snow, and wind. Brrrrr. Scary seeing some people who don't know how to dress for the weather walking downtown... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Serious fatties Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 N trends not my friend, but it was when I lived in NMI, lol! Glad I kept my expectations in check down here in the land of The Fudgies. I'd take 3" of wet snow over 6" of fluff every time tho. I didn't grow up with fluff snow and it does little for me tbh. Good luck to those in the best areas, especially Wisconsin starved peeps! Tom, I'm pulling for us both to score a solid 3" buddy Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 12z GFS continues with 6"+ for S/C Wisco...@ Jaster, I'm having my doubts of reaching 3" down here...trends no bueno... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020312/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 RAP showing the same thing http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020314&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt= Starting to come down now and accumulate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Too close for my liking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 RAP showing the same thing http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020314&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt= Starting to come down now and accumulateWonder if your area scores a warning out of this esp if meso scale banding develops...looks good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Riding the southern edge makes me sick...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 12z GFS continues with 6"+ for S/C Wisco...@ Jaster, I'm having my doubts of reaching 3" down here...trends no bueno... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020312/030/snku_acc.us_mw.pngIs there ANY phasing at all? Seems this season we get the N stream focus when we need the opposite, or vice-versa, but phasing is all but DOA over our sub! Nice storm for 2/3 of The Mitt tho. Holding out hope for 3" still here. We'll see tho. Overnight timing helps with temps warming so rapidly prior to onset Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Too close for my likingRGEM looks good for you http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020312&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 HRRR/RAP keep shifting the southern end south Looks good for mke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 ...mke updated discussion lowering totals south and raising north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 lol new update talking about more moisture and raising totals area wide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Started here - falling quickly! Nice!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.