Super Bowl Weekend Snow

[Tony]

I told Tony yesterday, Chicago could definitely get some help off of the big lake! 

 

WPC likes mby for 2-6"

 

Min:

 

20180202 14z 72hr WPC min snowfall.PNG

 

Max:

 

20180202 14z 72hr WPC max snowfall.PNG

It will be interesting to see how much interaction the lake will have with this system. Models are showing it so hope it plays out.

[Niko]

Snow breaks out tomorrow night and continues most of Sunday b4 ending later in the early evening (4-8"+ looks about right).

[Tom]

00z NAM with a lot better forcing across N IL compared to previous runs with a solid 3-4" event...the onset of the snow around midnight Sat  almost like a squal line feature you see in the Spring and could be a nice "thumping" of snow....followed by the backside of the system snow.

[Andrew NE]

00z NAM with a lot better forcing across N IL compared to previous runs with a solid 3-4" event...the onset of the snow around midnight Sat almost like a squal line feature you see in the Spring and could be a nice "thumping" of snow....followed by the backside of the system snow.

Good luck with this one Tom. Pattern looks great around Chi town in the coming 10 days or so.

[Tom]

00z NAM 3km indicating a somewhat convective nature to the snow that develops near the SLP across N IL...

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

NAM wants to leave mby fringed big time! Punt! Looks totally north dominant. Hopefully it's just a little too amped for it's own good.

[Money]

Gfs solid for Milwaukee north (5-8 ish)

[snowstorm83]

Maybe a dusting for Lincoln. I would be happy with even that since theres basically nothing on the ground right now. 

[Tom]

LOT has issued a WWA for adjacent counties (inluding McHenry) to Lake Michigan in NE IL...

 

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

ILZ014-INZ001-002-031715-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0008.180204T0600Z-180205T0000Z/
Cook-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Chicago, Gary, and Valparaiso
302 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...In Indiana, Lake IN and Porter Counties. In Illinois,
Cook County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

[Tom]

06z NAM really likes S/C WI...MKE may be in for their biggest 24-hour snow of the season....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020306/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

06z GFS...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020306/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

According to the 00z EPS/Control, MSN and pretty much all of S/C WI is in the game...I like MKE area to get hit pretty good...they do quite well when the surface low takes this track across N IL, esp with Lehs potential.

 

Locally, I'll take 3" all day to cover up the brown grass and make it feel and look like winter again...

 

 

I read this from the MKE AFD issued at 5:16am as they mention the convective look on the modeling which I pointed out last night:

 

 

 

06Z GFS follows the NAM on increasing snow amounts. However some
of that is convective in nature on the models this afternoon
which is questionable.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Latest HRRR runs are pounding the Fondy/Sheboygan area with 40/.50 qpf showing up....

[St Paul Storm]

Snow rapidly spreading SE from North Dakota. Some nice returns imbedded within the large area of precip. Should start snowing here by 9am or so. 1-3” expected. Tons of stuff going on around the Cities today, obviously. The snow will only add to the festivities.

[Madtown]

We shall see. Sticking to 3in. More I'll be happy less will be a disappointment.

[gosaints]

Midtown to money special..

[Tom]

We shall see. Sticking to 3in. More I'll be happy less will be a disappointment.

Latest RPM model paints 5-6" from MSN to MKE....I think they upgrade your area later today and include you in the WWA...

[westMJim]

The ground is now once again snow covered here at my house I measured 1.5” of new snow fall overnight. The snow had quit but has just started once again with a temperature here of 20°

[Niko]

3-6"+ looking likely for all of SEMI.

[gosaints]

3-6"+ looking likely for all of SEMI.

Seems to be north trend overnight into this morning....

[St Paul Storm]

The column is already saturating here. Flakes starting to fall. The models seem to have a north trend but based on the current radar this thing looks a tad south at the moment. Whoever catches some of those heavier returns moving in from the NW are gonna do well.

[gosaints]

The column is already saturating here. Flakes starting to fall. The models seem to have a north trend but based on the current radar this thing looks a tad south at the moment. Whoever catches some of those heavier returns moving in from the NW are gonna do well.

Solid dusting here

[St Paul Storm]

 

Solid dusting here

Nice. Won’t take long to accumulate today given the temps and ratios.

[Madtown]

Needs to go straight east to hit the was in the duluth area? Seems south to me too.

[Money]

Still looking good for 4-6 ish

 

Hrrr/rap both with 7+

[St Paul Storm]

Weenie band pop up over the metro. Good flake size. We’re off to a fast start.

[St Paul Storm]

Still looking good for 4-6 ish

Hrrr/rap both with 7+

You’re in the sweet spot. Good luck.

[Stormgeek]

Looking pretty promising on radar. Talk about the Minnesota experience for those here for the super bowl! Cold, snow, and wind. Brrrrr. Scary seeing some people who don't know how to dress for the weather walking downtown...

[gosaints]

Serious fatties

[jaster220]

N trends not my friend, but it was when I lived in NMI, lol! Glad I kept my expectations in check down here in the land of The Fudgies. I'd take 3" of wet snow over 6" of fluff every time tho. I didn't grow up with fluff snow and it does little for me tbh. Good luck to those in the best areas, especially Wisconsin starved peeps! Tom, I'm pulling for us both to score a solid 3" buddy

[Tom]

12z GFS continues with 6"+ for S/C Wisco...@ Jaster, I'm having my doubts of reaching 3" down here...trends no bueno...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020312/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

RAP showing the same thing

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020314&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

 

Starting to come down now and accumulate

[WBadgersW]

Too close for my liking

[Tom]

RAP showing the same thing

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020314&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

 

Starting to come down now and accumulate

Wonder if your area scores a warning out of this esp if meso scale banding develops...looks good...

[Madtown]

Riding the southern edge makes me sick...lol

[jaster220]

12z GFS continues with 6"+ for S/C Wisco...@ Jaster, I'm having my doubts of reaching 3" down here...trends no bueno...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020312/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Is there ANY phasing at all? Seems this season we get the N stream focus when we need the opposite, or vice-versa, but phasing is all but DOA over our sub! Nice storm for 2/3 of The Mitt tho. Holding out hope for 3" still here. We'll see tho. Overnight timing helps with temps warming so rapidly prior to onset

[Money]

Too close for my liking

RGEM looks good for you

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020312&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Money]

HRRR/RAP keep shifting the southern end south

 

Looks good for mke

[Madtown]

...mke updated discussion lowering totals south and raising north

[Madtown]

lol new update talking about more moisture and raising totals area wide

[VMB443]

Started here - falling quickly! Nice!!