February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

A nice thing to see is models showing both cold and snow. All too often we see the models show one and not the other.

 

That doesn't seem to be the case this time... At least at this point.

 

I'm always suspicious when the models show snow without any cold.

[Deweydog]

Still nothing about a big a** Arctic Outbreak in EITHER the KPDX or the KSEA discussions. What a joke!!!

[snow_wizard]

The control model on the 18z GEFS is pretty wild.  850s around -15 for a sustained period of time.  The mean is 7C below normal with the big cold wave now.

[snow_wizard]

This the catalyst we have needed all winter to really make things happen. I am pumped more than ever!!

 

I'm glad you are on board.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Move.

I have epilepsy and this is where my caretaker lives. I'm stuck. I realize it's a shi++y location but even by these lousy standards it's still surprising to me how less common Arctic events impact this region even as opposed to the 90s. I feel like it's way less frequent.

 

It is at least nice to see the potential for several nights of freezing temps that aren't under a fake cold though. It will be welcome since the insects are already bad. Flies and ants getting in the house like crazy. A good freeze could also kill some of those over-wintering wasp/hornet queens too.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now.  I knew they were way too warm for most days.  They also have snow showers for Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday.

You have access to the full detail of the best weather model in the world... make your own forecast! I think this concern stems from wanting the public to panic.

[Winterdog]

If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment.  A truly cruel joke to be sure.  Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again.  I refuse to get hopeful.  We are 6 days from this happening.  SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope.  

[HighlandExperience]

You have access to the full detail of the best weather model in the world... make your own forecast! I think this concern stems from wanting the public to panic.

Steve Pool will be on it

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday.

They've been used to the broken record of the models taking it away as we appoach the dates in question. Doesn't appear that will happen this time at least PDX north.

[snow_wizard]

If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment.  A truly cruel joke to be sure.  Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again.  I refuse to get hopeful.  We are 6 days from this happening.  SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope.  

 

It would be the biggest model bust since Jan 2005 if it fails.  EVERYTHING including the CFS is on board.

[TT-SEA]

If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment.  A truly cruel joke to be sure.  Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again.  I refuse to get hopeful.  We are 6 days from this happening.  SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope.  

 

I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range.

[snow_wizard]

I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range.

 

Besides that the way it's acting now kind of suggests better things to come.  Tonight will be our second push of Canadian air in just a couple days time.

[Winterdog]

I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range.

i never thought I’d see you beating the drumb this far out from an event. Keep it going Tim. I hope you and Jim are both right this time!

[Gradient Keeper]

When you're riding with that one friend who doesn't want Cold and SNOW!!!! and you've heard enough of it!

 

[TT-SEA]

i never thought I’d see you beating the drumb this far out from an event. Keep it going Tim. I hope you and Jim are both right this time!

 

Its not that far out now.  

[Winterdog]

Its not that far out now.

It is this winter.

[TT-SEA]

It is this winter.

 

This is clearly different.  

[Blizzard777]

The forum that is!

Loving the north wind as well

[Winterdog]

I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much.

 

 

That is actually quite close to the ECMWF...  little warm for next Saturday (49 vs 44).

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z GFS looks fantastic! Each GFS run is getting better and better now. Let's continue this trend into tonight with all the 00z runs. We are almost there!

[HighlandExperience]

The 18z GFS looks fantastic! Each GFS run is getting better and better now. Let's continue this trend into tonight with all the 00z runs. We are almost there!

Hope the timing moves up too

[snow_wizard]

I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much.

 

The low of 40 on Tuesday is just plain laughable.

[TT-SEA]

The low of 40 on Tuesday is just plain laughable.

 

Actually... the ECMWF shows some good southerly flow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and a low in the upper 30s.   There could easily be a low of 40.   Certainly not laughable.  

 

I am fairly certain those forecasts read from left to right chronologically (to keep it simple for the average folks) which means it shows 49 on Tuesday and 40 that night.    That is not technically correct of course because the official low on Tuesday will be much lower than 40 but that is represented on the Monday night low.  

[Gradient Keeper]

2/11/18 6:16 PM IR Loop update

I'm not saying that it's going to happen, but it sure looks like we may be going straight into a cold, arctic pattern sooner than modeled.

 

IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12

IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25

IR Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

IR 12hr Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+25

 

[weather girl]

What is the main thing you guys are watching for at this point?  Just wanting to make sure all the models are in agreement?  

[Phil]

I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much.

Toasty.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS highs of 50-55 next Sunday may be a little warm though...

 

Going for a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow night and 25 at SLE.

[Jbolin]

 

2/11/18 6:16 PM IR Loop update

I'm not saying that it's going to happen, but it sure looks like we may be going straight into a cold, arctic pattern sooner than modeled.

 

IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12

IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25

IR Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

IR 12hr Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+25

 

 

A lot of cold air up there

[MossMan]

Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0Jynoflzo

Looking at that satellite pic I would say it was a repeat of last year when everything trended south leaving us up here dry and cold. Oh and I would love snow tornado’s!!

[Esquimalt]

00Z NAM looks a tad warmer, dryer than the 18Z.  Not too bad overall: looks like pretty widespread area of snow over the Vancouver area through north of Seattle until around 12Z Wednesday.   

 

Temperatures are looking very marginal, so will see how widespread this event is.  Hoping for lots but expecting little.  

[seattleweatherguy]

00Z NAM looks a tad warmer, dryer than the 18Z. Not too bad overall: looks like pretty widespread area of snow over the Vancouver area through north of Seattle until around 12Z Wednesday.

 

Temperatures are looking very marginal, so will see how widespread this event is. Hoping for lots but expecting little.

Snow will fall before 12z wed? That is before 9 am wed?

[TT-SEA]

Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0Jynoflzo

 

 

That is actually hilarious.   You have to watch it all the way though.  

 

This reminds me of some people on here.  

 

Day 4 is so cold it can't snow.   So cold you will be begging for snow but no matter how much you beg it it won't come.  

 

[Esquimalt]

Snow will fall before 12z wed? That is before 9 am wed?

Snow will begin slightly before 3 AM on Wednesday in higher areas of the county.  Surface temperatures are looking to be in the mid to upper 30s with 850s around -3C.  Snow levels do look to be lowering as cooler air floods behind the system and a few flurries continue to fall.  

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=nwus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018021200&fh=54

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks more green than blue in king county missing most central cities. May be more of a snohomish/ northern event?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Hmmm, HR 36 offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge a bit stronger, merging. Also, heights over BC suppressing southward bit quicker and that trend has continued past 6 runs now. Animated GIF shows this nicely.

https://imgur.com/vmP7m0P

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Hmmm, HR 36 offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge a bit stronger, merging. Also, heights over BC suppressing southward bit quicker and that trend has continued past 6 runs now. Animated GIF shows this nicely.

https://imgur.com/vmP7m0P

 

This gives a bit more weight to my suggestion that we may see the colder, arctic pattern arrive sooner than modeled right now.

[seattleweatherguy]

That was my first attempt to post an image. Hope I read it right

[Gradient Keeper]

Maybe the initial trough will be a bit colder before the real goodies arrive.