February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

What is the main thing you guys are watching for at this point?  Just wanting to make sure all the models are in agreement?  

 

What is the main thing you guys are watching for at this point?  Just wanting to make sure all the models are in agreement?  

 

The things I've been watching are the position and intensity of the low the models are showing near Hawaii and the position and intensity of the high heights over the Gulf of Alaska with the mid week trough.  Those set the stage for the fun stuff later.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe the initial trough will be a bit colder before the real goodies arrive.

 

The EPS looked pretty cold with mid week trough on the 12z run.  That has a good chance to over perform IMO.

[Gradient Keeper]

The EPS looked pretty cold with mid week trough on the 12z run.  That has a good chance to over perform IMO.

If that trend continues another 4-6 runs we'll definitely be colder sooner.

[Front Ranger]

Looks more green than blue in king county missing most central cities. May be more of a snohomish/ northern event?

 

Yeah, looking like the mid week event will probably only be snow for areas north of Seattle or above 500'. Though you never know if a nice CZ forms...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If nothing else, Andrew might get some sub freezing highs hopefully and some snow too.

[snow_wizard]

Everything looks just a shade better with the mid week trough.  So far so good.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, looking like the mid week event will probably only be snow for areas north of Seattle or above 500'. Though you never know if a nice CZ forms...

 

I'm not expecting anything from that one, but it's not impossible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If nothing else, Andrew might get some sub freezing highs hopefully and some snow too.

 

Would be pretty cool. Had a chilly 41/31 day today.

[snow_wizard]

If nothing else, Andrew might get some sub freezing highs hopefully and some snow too.

 

Really no reason to be negative about the upcoming pattern.  Huge potential for many of us.

[Esquimalt]

At hour 102 on the 00z GFS, lower heights are further west than on the 18Z.  Good news.  So far so good  .  How do you add an image into the text?  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be pretty cool. Had a chilly 41/31 day today.

 

We'll see if we can get to freezing here tonight.  We were 34 last night.

[seattleweatherguy]

Really no reason to be negative about the upcoming pattern.  Huge potential for many of us.

 

The main stuff is still on the weekend and beyond right? Wed might be the teaser? I am excited for sure.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the high pressure over the GOA looks more robust on this run vs the 18z.

[seattleweatherguy]

At hour 102 on the 00z GFS, lower heights are further west than on the 18Z.  Good news.  So far so good  .  How do you add an image into the text?  

 

You have to click on more reply options then attach an image.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really no reason to be negative about the upcoming pattern.  Huge potential for many of us.

 

I realise I sound negative.  I just try to mentally prepare myself for disappointment since you guys are due for a better event than us down here at some point.  I'd love to see a regional event with a low dropping right off the coast, giving all of us the goodies, so I hope that happens, but I'm not going to expect it.  At the very least we look to get nice and cold at nights, which would do wonders for killing pesky insects and hornet/wasp queens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, southeast US ridge not as strong, midwest trough deeper.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At hour 102 on the 00z GFS, lower heights are further west than on the 18Z.  Good news.  So far so good  .  How do you add an image into the text?  

 

On PC just drag the image into the reply area.  Mobile is considerably more time-consuming as you have to save the image to your phone then post it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021200/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

Timing definitely moving up and offshore block looks more robust.

 

Everything also looks a bit east of 18z so far though as well.

[HighlandExperience]

Hmmm, southeast US ridge not as strong, midwest trough deeper.

Uh oh

[Winterdog]

Hour 150 looking not near as good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

Day 7.5 516 thickness PDX. Lower than 18z which was 522

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Calm down...Pretty decent run. Timing moved up and 516 thickness to PDX at hour 180. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridge isn't as amplified. We'll see if it can rebound in the long range. 

[MossMan]

That is actually hilarious. You have to watch it all the way though.

 

This reminds me of some people on here.

 

Day 4 is so cold it can't snow. So cold you will be begging for snow but no matter how much you beg it it won't come.

 

Snow and cheese...two of my absolute favorite things!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 850mb temps quite a bit colder than 18z

[snow_wizard]

This run digs back better than the 18z.  Very solid blast being shown.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is incredible. Delays the cold air a bit, but great patter sets up...Snow showers for days...

[van city]

Hour 150 looking not near as good.

18z

00z

[seattleweatherguy]

Can't wait to see what the euro says tonight

[MossMan]

It’s gonna snow!!

[snow_wizard]

The positive anomaly center is in the sweet spot on this run.  Very near where it was in Jan 1950.  Maybe just a tad less amplified.

[snow_wizard]

Can't wait to see what the euro says tonight

 

Why does anyone need to calm down?  This is the coldest run yet.

[Winterdog]

18z

gfs_T850_nwus_31.png

00z

gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

Yeah it was a bit worse at 150 but soon rectified itself.

[HighlandExperience]

Can't wait to see what the euro says tonight

 

Will be amazing.

[MossMan]

Yeah it was a bit worse at 150 but soon rectified itself.

Rectification...it’s a beautiful thing!

[Winterdog]

Here comes a snowstorm down the coast at hour 204.

edit: whoops a bit too far west

[TT-SEA]

Here comes a snowstorm down the coast at hour 204

 

Misses everyone!   Too much cold air.  

[MossMan]

Already down to 30!

[Winterdog]

Already down to 30!

We are in sync again!  30 here as well.