ShawniganLake Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Fwiw, the 3km NAM did really well with the snowfall in the Vancouver area yesterday. It was very much in line with the euro with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 The 06Z ICON is a work of art.The 12Z ICON now shows 4-5 inches of snow around Seattle on Sunday. It feels like (I hope?) this model pics up the meso details pretty well, but who knows.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 So far low is stronger on 12z for sat. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 It gets a lot of flack on this board but it's really not as bad as what everyone makes it out to be. I can point to numerous instances where it was more accurate than the GFS for snow events.Better than the GEM too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 It gets a lot of flack on this board but it's really not as bad as what everyone makes it out to be. I can point to numerous instances where it was more accurate than the GFS for snow events.Yeah, as far as precip in the short range goes, it's one of the best tools we have. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Looks like the gfs is trying to dig the trough a little further west this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Amazing to zoom in at the snow line. That has always fascinated me. Even more cool when the rising sun is just shining on the snowy part of the ridge... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per the 12Z GFS... focusing on the south Sound again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per the 12Z GFS... focusing on the south Sound again. Swamp does well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Total snow through Sunday afternoon per the 12Z GFS... focusing on the south Sound again. Must be weak surface low south of that snow line causing heavier totals. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Must be weak surface low south of that snow line causing heavier totals. I think its upslope from the arctic front. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 It’s looking more like the 00z last night than the 06z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 I think its upslope from the arctic front.You mentioned that last night as well. Looks like northern pierce and se king county might get decent totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Cold run so far. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS isn't backing down with the colder solution that it latched onto yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 FXUS66 KSEW 151120 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 320 AM PST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A front will bring rain tonight and Friday. A much stronger frontal system will bring more rain along with windy conditions and heavy snow in the mountains Friday night and Saturday. Fraser outflow will develop Sunday with colder temperatures and possible lowland snow showers. It will be dry and cold early next week with offshore flow. && .SHORT TERM...A few showers will linger today in somewhat moist onshore flow. A front will bring rain tonight and Friday with some breezy to locally windy conditions. Advisory amounts of snow look likely for the Cascades with fairly low snow levels. There will be a modest and brief lull in between weather systems Friday evening. A vigorous frontal system will then bring another round of rain later Friday night and Saturday. This system looks a notch windier - probably advisory levels for some areas. It will also be wetter with heavy snow possible for the mountains. Schneider .LONG TERM...A cold upper trough will settle over the area Sunday. At the same time, strong Fraser outflow will develop, pushing a modified arctic front south through Western Washington during the day. There could be some snow in the lowlands, especially along the arctic boundary that pushes south but it is too far out to pin down details like timing or accumulations. Dry northerly flow aloft will prevail Monday through Wednesday. Fraser outflow will ease Monday but cold air will remain in place. A weak system dropping down from the north could bring some rain or snow showers Wednesday. Schneider && .AVIATION...Northerly flow aloft becoming northwesterly this morning with the northwesterly flow aloft continuing into Friday. Rain out ahead of an approaching warm front will move into the tonight into the early morning hours on Friday. Wide variety of ceilings this morning with mostly MVFR between Olympia and Bellingham with some isolated IFR/LIFR in the Bremerton and Shelton and VFR over the remainder of the area. Ceilings will improve to VFR over most of the area later this morning into the afternoon hours with ceilings lowering back down to MVFR overnight with light rain. Local visibilities 3-5sm after midnight with the light rain. KSEA...Scattered to broken deck around 1000 feet early this morning will scatter out by mid morning with just mid and high level clouds this afternoon. Ceilings lowering back down to near 2000 feet after midnight with light rain. South to southeast wind 4 to 8 knots into Friday morning. Felton KSEA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS isn't backing down with the colder solution that it latched onto yesterday. Yep it's looking better. Alaska ridge is a bit fatter at hour 144 on this one though. Hopefully it doesn't extend too east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 GEM looking awesome with a coastal slider. A good 12 hours of light to moderate snowfall with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 GEM still a lot more aggressive than the GFS with sending energy down the coast next week on the eastern edge of the block. Pretty similar otherwise. Does look a lot better towards the end of the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 GEM still a lot more aggressive than the GFS with sending energy down the coast next week on the eastern edge of the block. Pretty similar otherwise.GFS does show some getting closer on this run. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Block remains in great spot entire run so far and looks like it will get really good as we approach long range. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS does show some getting closer on this run. Yeah, it has the Tuesday system a bit closer to the coast and develops an extremely weak low off of Long Beach at 168 hours. The models always struggle mightily with these types of systems so it's not going to be relatively clear until a couple days out. Potential is there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Post the GEM w/b map Dunno how to. A widespread 6 to 8 inches throughout the sound and Vancouver Island, including Victoria. Portland has approximately 4 inches. Many people have 8 to 10 inches, especially if on higher terrain. I know that the GEM overdoes snowfall, but this is looking very promising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 You mentioned that last night as well. Looks like northern pierce and se king county might get decent totals. Very possible. But again, models have been kind of all over the place with where they're focusing the heaviest snowfall. And judging from past experience, they usually don't have a decent handle on it until right before the event...and even then, a healthy CZ can totally change things. If this event does end up having a Feb 2011, Dec 2008, or Nov 2006 type front, it's likely that the actual snowfall will look quite different than what the GFS is depicting. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Low at hour 204 on the GFS looks stronger on this run. Still rain for most areas but looks like cold maritime air with 850s at around -5 to -10 C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wow. GFS at hour 240 is truly incredible on the 500mb level!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 GEM still a lot more aggressive than the GFS with sending energy down the coast next week on the eastern edge of the block. Pretty similar otherwise. Does look a lot better towards the end of the week. ICON has a nice little snowstorm for the Willamette Valley/Portland area at that time. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wow. GFS at hour 240 is truly incredible on the 500mb level!!In what way is it incredible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 In what way is it incredible?its not, looks like a decent mountain snow pattern. Gem is much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wow. GFS at hour 240 is truly incredible on the 500mb level!! The stuff at 84 hours is decent too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 In what way is it incredible?Just looks better than the patterns in that time frame in previous GFS runs. Lots of cold air in the north of BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 That is some serious maritime polar air in early March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Interesting little tidbit. What are the chances of a 1" snowfall in Seattle after Valentines Day? In the 74 years of records there have been 42 ( 57% ) 1" or more snowfall days after February 14th but only 4 of the 42 have happened in the last 25 years. #wawx— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 15, 2018Shows you how crappy the last 25 years have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 That is some serious maritime polar air in early March.Looks like a massive snowfall in the clown range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just keep coming in the clown range. This really could be a historic cold stretch. The blocking is just crazy. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 For the love of GOD 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 For the love of GOD Andrew special there!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 Pretty old school look to the upcoming pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 15, 2018 Report Share Posted February 15, 2018 I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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