TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 But it's also a low-res, shitty map. Way better than that grid-like macro resolution map I see posted on here all the time to show GFS and GEM snowfall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Way better than that grid-like macro resolution map I see posted on here all the time to show GFS and GEM snowfall. It looks prettier. Not sure it's any more accurate. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 SundaySnow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.Sunday NightA 40 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Nws says for bothell take it as a grain of salt for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 GEM looking less like a gem. Too bad. Both GEM and GFS have everything shifted a little east which makes the difference tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 The Canadian likes snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 You're right, Tim. Season three goes off the rails a little bit. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Luckily the Canadian is typically the drier model! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 You're right, Tim. Season three goes off the rails a little bit.Yeah... they were trying too hard. Season 4 is better. They have long story arcs and I enjoyed it more. Macy is simply awesome in that season. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Still out on it's own with the Tuesday/Wednesday system being close enough for snow inland. It's either leading the charge or horribly off with the positioning. Any bets? I'm leaning towards the GEM being correct. These BC sliders always seem to find a way in. EURO was close and wouldn't shock me if it followed similarly to the GEM tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Clown range of the GFS gets ridiculous lol. -28 temp anomalies throughout all of BC, just crazy and not going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 #Regionwide Classic PNW March SW'ster snowstorm! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Been fun to follow these runs. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places. Sun ain't gonna help much with WC's in the negative teens. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z WRF definitely shows more snow than previous runs. Moving to the ICON? That is more snow? I thought there was a run that showed more snow in the Seattle area? Here is a wider view... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places. This says otherwise: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Sun ain't gonna help much with WC's in the negative teens. Very true. By 1 p.m. on Sunday it looks like its partly cloudy for most of the area. And then 4 p.m. its actually sunny in some places. I do think the cloud cover maps give you a better idea of the conditions that day in general. Might be snow showers and sun breaks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 This says otherwise: That looks like mostly high clouds. But the MM5 NAM is always hideous with cloud cover... take it from someone who always focuses on that with the MM5 models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 That looks like mostly high clouds. But the MM5 NAM is always hideous with cloud cover... take it from someone who always focuses on that with the MM5 models. My point is that showers may be scattered by then, but I'm not certain the precip will be so quick to shut off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Precip certainly will not be rain on Sunday! Here are 925mb temps at 4 p.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time.Should've held out on hiatus a little longer. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 My point is that showers may be scattered by then, but I'm not certain the precip will be so quick to shut off. Very unlikely it shuts off completely by late morning. But does not look like a c-zone set up either... too much northerly flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time Yeah hard to believe we won't achieve mid winter records in late winter... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Should've held out on hiatus a little longer.It’s always right there waiting for me like a warm hug from an old friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Precip certainly will not be rain on Sunday! Here are 925mb temps at 4 p.m. I'm feeling good about some solid snowfall up here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 It’s always right there waiting for me like a warm hug from an old friend.It's nice to have things in life you can count on. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Very unlikely it shuts off completely by late morning. But does not look like a c-zone set up either... too much northerly flow. Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's nice to have things in life you can count on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I just got home from bowling; very quiet in here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z GFS is just a fantastically cold run for this late in the season, from start to finish. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Keep in mind the models almost always under do precip with these events. There are always surprises. In the bigger picture it's looking increasingly possible it will stay notably cold through most of next week. The models are flirting with a couple of more solid cold shots. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 00z GFS is just a fantastically cold run for this late in the season, from start to finish. There will probably be several lowland snow opportunities at times. A lot of different possible scenarios. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 FWIW these late season cold waves almost always have snow in the Puget Sound region. Past experience may be more useful than models at this point. This GFS run has a period of WSW flow aloft early Sunday morning which is a big thing we want to see. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Good Lord...the ensemble mean stays below -5 through the 25th now. It seems that many on here are underestimating how impressive this cold wave is going to be. This looks to easily be in the top 3 cold air masses for this century so far. A decent analog is November 2010...at least from a cold standpoint. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Good Lord...the ensemble mean stays below -5 through the 25th now. It seems that many on here are underestimating how impressive this cold wave is going to be. This looks to easily be in the top 3 cold air masses for this century so far. A decent analog is November 2010...at least from a cold standpoint. I don't think temps will be as cold as November 2010. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow per the 00Z GFS through Sunday evening at 10 p.m. Precip is done at this point from Portland northward. Much better for my area. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Let's not spike the football on the 5 yard line please. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I just got home from bowling; very quiet in here... Weird, same here. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I don't think temps will be as cold as November 2010. Definitely not. SEA is not pulling out a high of 25. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.