February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Friday is still looking pretty good on the 00z GFS. Probably going to be the best shot at a more widespread 1-4 inches, especially for places with just a touch of elevation.

 

Also has a CZ-look over King County Saturday morning.

The good times keep rolling!

[seattleweatherguy]

Lots of snow chances it sounds like. I got 0.2 here barely accumilatimg on grass.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Heavy snow US30 between Astoria and Rainier.

 

[Blizzard777]

Confirm light wet flakes Tigard

[bainbridgekid]

Over an inch on the roof of my building downtown already. Though that's kind of cheating given it's a 400' building that already starts at 200' AGL, but if I have to cheat my way to decent snow then I'll do it!!!

Is it weird I picture you illegally sneaking onto the roof to check this?

 

Or maybe I'm just weird for thinking I'd do the exact same thing. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sounds like you are well on your way. 850mb temps are -9.5C dude.

As long as there is no BSF. There is no wind now

[snow_wizard]

The intensity is finally picking up here.  Been snowing for about 5 hours and still not even a half inch, but still fun to watch.

[snow_wizard]

You think these two bands coming in are it for the night?

 

Hard to tell with a situation like this.  Stuff can come out of nowhere with these dynamics.

[bainbridgekid]

The intensity is finally picking up here.  Been snowing for about 5 hours and still not even a half inch, but still fun to watch.

Similar story here.

 

Been snowing pretty continuously since a little before 4 PM and I'm just now closing in on 1/2".

[wxmet]

Friday is still looking pretty good on the 00z GFS. Probably going to be the best shot at a more widespread 1-4 inches, especially for places with just a touch of elevation.

 

Also has a CZ-look over King County Saturday morning.

 

Looks like several good chances over the next few days even into early next week. If we can get accumulating snow that will help keep surface temps low for subsequent events.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good feeling that this might be my fav night on the board so far. It's like a ballgame late in the 4th quarter/2nd half

[GHweatherChris]

Definitely better dynamics in Oregon looking at radar and track.

[snow_wizard]

Oh boy!  That area of precip coming in from the WSW is getting heavier as it progresses.

[MossMan]

Up to 3/4” of fresh snow now.

[bainbridgekid]

It's always fascinated me how vastly differently snow accumulates on different types of surfaces.

 

For example, right now the road by my house is mainly white, but the sidewalk and walkway up to my porch is entirely wet. And some driveways are completely iced up and have nearly a half inch on them while others have no snow at all.

 

The grass, cars, and roofs all have about half an inch

[snow_wizard]

Similar story here.

 

Been snowing pretty continuously since a little before 4 PM and I'm just now closing in on 1/2".

 

This is one case where being so cold really saved us.

[snow_wizard]

Good feeling that this might be my fav night on the board so far. It's like a ballgame late in the 4th quarter/2nd half

 

It's more fun when most people are getting snow.

[Front Ranger]

Mostly cloudy here.

 

The Puget Sound wins again. Typical.

 

****** bags...

 

You just totally refuted everything that's happened since 2012!

[Blizzard777]

Ooppps

[Perturbed Member]

35 with dp of 32. Not sure we are gonna make it here. No wind tho.

 

You're gonna make it this time. 

 

 

Moderate snow here now, 

[Deweydog]

Nice evening in Astoria.

[MossMan]

It's always fascinated me how vastly differently snow accumulates on different types of surfaces.

 

For example, right now the road by my house is mainly white, but the sidewalk and walkway up to my porch is entirely wet. And some driveways are completely iced up and have nearly a half inch on them while others have no snow at all.

 

The grass, cars, and roofs all have about half an inch

The only area that is wet at my place is where I had parked my truck on Sunday, I’m pretty sure it’s due to a lot of deicer/road salt was mixed in with some of the slush that dropped off the bottom of my truck and melted.

[HighlandExperience]

This is one case where being so cold really saved us.

The heaviest snow of the night might be coming soon

[Esquimalt]

Not liking the look of the GFS.  Much warmer and wetter for next week.  A good mountain snow pattern but not good for us lowlanders.  

[Jesse]

Snowing here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Oregon is going to own us on this one.

[Esquimalt]

Also, the GEM has deballed the Friday system.  The NAM has sort of done the same (looks like for 3 hrs of precipitation for many areas).  Hopefully this isn't a trend. 

[MossMan]

Jaya did a nice write up with the 8pm AFD about the happenings this evening.

[MossMan]

Also, the GEM has deballed the Friday system. The NAM has sort of done the same (looks like for 3 hrs of precipitation for many areas). Hopefully this isn't a trend.

Tonight could be it then. Oh well it has been a nice run.

[Jbolin]

Over an inch on the roof of my building downtown already. Though that's kind of cheating given it's a 400' building that already starts at 200' AGL, but if I have to cheat my way to decent snow then I'll do it!!!

I'm at 600 FT in W. Sea and NOT on the roof of my building

[seattleweatherguy]

KSEW 220402

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

802 PM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system over Northwest Washington

this evening will bring areas of light snow to the area. This low

will move quickly south into Oregon later tonight. A break in the

weather is expected between systems on Thursday. A stronger

system will give wet weather to the area Friday into Saturday with

low snow levels. Cool northwest flow aloft will continue into the

middle of next week, with cool wet systems around Sunday and then

next Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and area radars show a surface low

just west of Hoquiam and an upper level low or vorticity maximum

just east of the Hood Canal Bridge. The system is expected to push

rapidly southward into Oregon overnight with precipitation rapidly

ending from the north between 10 PM and 1 AM. The forecast

challenge of the evening is snowfall amounts as the system quickly

moves and its structure evolves. One area of interest extends from

around Everett and Arlington westward to Port Townsend and the

Hood Canal Bridge. A report on social media indicated that 3

inches fell in Sequim as this feature passed that area earlier.

How far east will this area extend as it pushes south and will it

maintain its structure? At this point it appears that this area

has diminished somewhat over the past hour. With the exception to

an isolated location around Everett or Mukilteo, it appears that

snowfall totals east of the Sound will remain below one inch while

portions of the Kitsap Peninsula (especially north) will see 1-3

inches. Farther north, snowfall over the San Juans and around

Bellingham is rapidly ending from the north. Another area of

interest is from around Shelton and Olympia westward through the

Chehalis Gap to southeast of Hoquiam and into the Willapa Hills.

Showers moving southeast along the coast appear rather heavy on

radar. A quick 2-3 inches can fall from these heavier showers.

 

Winter weather advisories are in effect for the lowlands of the

Olympic Peninsula, the interior from Olympia southward, and the

lowlands west of the Sound. The first advisory to expire is on

the North Coast where showers are coming to an end. We will likely

be able to cancel advisories a bit before the stated expiration

time from north to south as snow comes to an end overnight.

Albrecht

 

From the previous short term discussion: Upper heights will rise

nicely on Thu morning, and dry northeast flow aloft will quickly

clear out skies in the AM. A sunny Thu afternoon is expected,

though the air mass will still be cool. Shortwave ridge axis will

move southeast past the forecast Thu night.

 

Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave down the B.C.

coast on Friday PM, with the height fall center passing turning

east-southeast near Vancouver B.C. on Fri evening. A slowly

intensifying 1012 mb surface low will pass across the far North

Cascades late Friday night. To its south, a turn to onshore flow

with southerly gradients will bring a good shot of warm advection

and lift on Friday afternoon and evening. With a cold air mass to

begin, most lowland locales will start as snow. The coast should

quickly change to rain soon after precip onset. Away from the

coast, the transition to rain is more likely to occur Friday

evening after starting with 1-3 inches of snow during the

afternoon. A trailing cold front will move across on Sat morning,

with a few post-frontal rain and snow showers continuing. With a

cooling air mass behind the front on Sat, some more localized

accumulations are possible, especially where there is a focus for

lift such as in a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. On a larger scale,

weather should be drying out over the course of Saturday. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...From the previous long term discussion: Northwest

flow pattern will continue. Another system is expected Sunday. Air

mass will not be as cold to start with, so precip will come in

the form of rain over the majority of the lowlands. However, some

post-frontal snow showers are possible on Sunday night. Next

similar system expected late Tuesday or next Wednesday. Haner

[Jesse]

KSEW 220402

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

802 PM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system over Northwest Washington

this evening will bring areas of light snow to the area. This low

will move quickly south into Oregon later tonight. A break in the

weather is expected between systems on Thursday. A stronger

system will give wet weather to the area Friday into Saturday with

low snow levels. Cool northwest flow aloft will continue into the

middle of next week, with cool wet systems around Sunday and then

next Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and area radars show a surface low

just west of Hoquiam and an upper level low or vorticity maximum

just east of the Hood Canal Bridge. The system is expected to push

rapidly southward into Oregon overnight with precipitation rapidly

ending from the north between 10 PM and 1 AM. The forecast

challenge of the evening is snowfall amounts as the system quickly

moves and its structure evolves. One area of interest extends from

around Everett and Arlington westward to Port Townsend and the

Hood Canal Bridge. A report on social media indicated that 3

inches fell in Sequim as this feature passed that area earlier.

How far east will this area extend as it pushes south and will it

maintain its structure? At this point it appears that this area

has diminished somewhat over the past hour. With the exception to

an isolated location around Everett or Mukilteo, it appears that

snowfall totals east of the Sound will remain below one inch while

portions of the Kitsap Peninsula (especially north) will see 1-3

inches. Farther north, snowfall over the San Juans and around

Bellingham is rapidly ending from the north. Another area of

interest is from around Shelton and Olympia westward through the

Chehalis Gap to southeast of Hoquiam and into the Willapa Hills.

Showers moving southeast along the coast appear rather heavy on

radar. A quick 2-3 inches can fall from these heavier showers.

 

Winter weather advisories are in effect for the lowlands of the

Olympic Peninsula, the interior from Olympia southward, and the

lowlands west of the Sound. The first advisory to expire is on

the North Coast where showers are coming to an end. We will likely

be able to cancel advisories a bit before the stated expiration

time from north to south as snow comes to an end overnight.

Albrecht

 

From the previous short term discussion: Upper heights will rise

nicely on Thu morning, and dry northeast flow aloft will quickly

clear out skies in the AM. A sunny Thu afternoon is expected,

though the air mass will still be cool. Shortwave ridge axis will

move southeast past the forecast Thu night.

 

Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave down the B.C.

coast on Friday PM, with the height fall center passing turning

east-southeast near Vancouver B.C. on Fri evening. A slowly

intensifying 1012 mb surface low will pass across the far North

Cascades late Friday night. To its south, a turn to onshore flow

with southerly gradients will bring a good shot of warm advection

and lift on Friday afternoon and evening. With a cold air mass to

begin, most lowland locales will start as snow. The coast should

quickly change to rain soon after precip onset. Away from the

coast, the transition to rain is more likely to occur Friday

evening after starting with 1-3 inches of snow during the

afternoon. A trailing cold front will move across on Sat morning,

with a few post-frontal rain and snow showers continuing. With a

cooling air mass behind the front on Sat, some more localized

accumulations are possible, especially where there is a focus for

lift such as in a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. On a larger scale,

weather should be drying out over the course of Saturday. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...From the previous long term discussion: Northwest

flow pattern will continue. Another system is expected Sunday. Air

mass will not be as cold to start with, so precip will come in

the form of rain over the majority of the lowlands. However, some

post-frontal snow showers are possible on Sunday night. Next

similar system expected late Tuesday or next Wednesday. Haner

Crazy.

[Deweydog]

KSEW 220402

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

802 PM PST Wed Feb 21 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system over Northwest Washington

this evening will bring areas of light snow to the area. This low

will move quickly south into Oregon later tonight. A break in the

weather is expected between systems on Thursday. A stronger

system will give wet weather to the area Friday into Saturday with

low snow levels. Cool northwest flow aloft will continue into the

middle of next week, with cool wet systems around Sunday and then

next Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and area radars show a surface low

just west of Hoquiam and an upper level low or vorticity maximum

just east of the Hood Canal Bridge. The system is expected to push

rapidly southward into Oregon overnight with precipitation rapidly

ending from the north between 10 PM and 1 AM. The forecast

challenge of the evening is snowfall amounts as the system quickly

moves and its structure evolves. One area of interest extends from

around Everett and Arlington westward to Port Townsend and the

Hood Canal Bridge. A report on social media indicated that 3

inches fell in Sequim as this feature passed that area earlier.

How far east will this area extend as it pushes south and will it

maintain its structure? At this point it appears that this area

has diminished somewhat over the past hour. With the exception to

an isolated location around Everett or Mukilteo, it appears that

snowfall totals east of the Sound will remain below one inch while

portions of the Kitsap Peninsula (especially north) will see 1-3

inches. Farther north, snowfall over the San Juans and around

Bellingham is rapidly ending from the north. Another area of

interest is from around Shelton and Olympia westward through the

Chehalis Gap to southeast of Hoquiam and into the Willapa Hills.

Showers moving southeast along the coast appear rather heavy on

radar. A quick 2-3 inches can fall from these heavier showers.

 

Winter weather advisories are in effect for the lowlands of the

Olympic Peninsula, the interior from Olympia southward, and the

lowlands west of the Sound. The first advisory to expire is on

the North Coast where showers are coming to an end. We will likely

be able to cancel advisories a bit before the stated expiration

time from north to south as snow comes to an end overnight.

Albrecht

 

From the previous short term discussion: Upper heights will rise

nicely on Thu morning, and dry northeast flow aloft will quickly

clear out skies in the AM. A sunny Thu afternoon is expected,

though the air mass will still be cool. Shortwave ridge axis will

move southeast past the forecast Thu night.

 

Northwest flow aloft will bring another shortwave down the B.C.

coast on Friday PM, with the height fall center passing turning

east-southeast near Vancouver B.C. on Fri evening. A slowly

intensifying 1012 mb surface low will pass across the far North

Cascades late Friday night. To its south, a turn to onshore flow

with southerly gradients will bring a good shot of warm advection

and lift on Friday afternoon and evening. With a cold air mass to

begin, most lowland locales will start as snow. The coast should

quickly change to rain soon after precip onset. Away from the

coast, the transition to rain is more likely to occur Friday

evening after starting with 1-3 inches of snow during the

afternoon. A trailing cold front will move across on Sat morning,

with a few post-frontal rain and snow showers continuing. With a

cooling air mass behind the front on Sat, some more localized

accumulations are possible, especially where there is a focus for

lift such as in a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. On a larger scale,

weather should be drying out over the course of Saturday. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...From the previous long term discussion: Northwest

flow pattern will continue. Another system is expected Sunday. Air

mass will not be as cold to start with, so precip will come in

the form of rain over the majority of the lowlands. However, some

post-frontal snow showers are possible on Sunday night. Next

similar system expected late Tuesday or next Wednesday. Haner

Bump.

[Front Ranger]

Heavier echoes heading towards Jim...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, GFS just keeps the party going.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm at 600 FT in W. Sea and NOT on the roof of my building

Pretty sure the highest point in West Seattle (and Seattle overall) is 520 feet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks really good to me?!

[MikeInEverett]

Snow looks to be quickly diminishing from north to south. Nearing the edge here.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow looks to be quickly diminishing from north to south. Nearing the edge here.

Where u at?

[MikeInEverett]

Where u at?

Mill Creek.