hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 the 3km NAM upped totals significantly. It is also slightly further north than the rest of guidance. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018020500/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Nam loves the north trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Nam loves the north trendbut it's been trending south??? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Icon hits Dsm northwest hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Icon hits Dsm northwest hard The ICON and RGEM are holding steady with central to southeast Iowa, vs the NAM's nw to ec. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Whoa, the 00z GFS went even farther south, is now the driest run for CR of any model in the last three days, with only 0.2". The ICON, RGEM, and GFS are trying to dive the heavy snow southeast instead of east/ese. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 added to the wwa 2-4". Shocked wasn't expecting anything outta this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Uh oh, the 00z GFS went even farther south, is now the driest run for CR of any model in the last two days, with only 0.2". The ICON, RGEM, and GFS are trying to dive the heavy snow southeast instead of east/ese. I hope the NAM and Euro are seeing something the others are missing. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Uh oh, the 00z GFS went even farther south, is now the driest run for CR of any model in the last two days, with only 0.2". The ICON, RGEM, and GFS are trying to dive the heavy snow southeast instead of east/ese. I hope the NAM and Euro are seeing something the others are missing.Looks like we have the HRRR/RAP and the WRFs(from what I can tell, no precip amounts whatsoever, which makes things complicated) on our side though, whatever that combo of CAMs is worth. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS op run looked like 18z to me....however i have not seen snowfall maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 is the 3k nam any good within 24 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Canadian has the heaviest snow in central and south central Iowa. looks like about 1/4" qpf for most of eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GRR AFD headline .UPDATE...Issued at 1032 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 I have issued a winter weather advisory for Monday evening intothe mid morning hours of Tuesday for most of the counties betweenthe Lake Michigan shore and US-131. It appears there will be oneof those southwest flow enhanced snowfall events Monday evening.As the shortwave approaches southwest Michigan we get southwestwinds ahead of the surface trough. That creates the classicenhanced southwest to northeast snow bands from southwestern VanBuren County into southern Kent County. The max lift is in the DGZand the DGZ is unusably deep, from 2000 ft agl to 15,000 ft onthe latest NAMNEST. Most of the heaviest snowfall will be Mondaynight prior to midnight. The Hi Res WRF NMM, WRF- ARW, WRF- ARW2,and NAM 3km are all showing a band of 3 to 6 (locally 8`) in thatband. It would seem lingering snow showers will continue most ofthe day on Tuesday as there is lift in the DGZ, it is more thancold enough and winds are northwest. The limiting factor for snowduring the day Tuesday is the shallow inversion heights, near5000 ft agl. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The "North" in "North American Mesoscale" has a double meaning tonight. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 It is not a hobby anyone can quit...giving up smoking would be 100 times easier. NNM (or is NMM?...always get that confused) and the 18z ICON only hope here for tonight. What looked like a non-event 12 hours ago suddenly has some additional support from 0z HRDPS & 0z NAM...with close to 1/4 inch LE...with temps in the teens; it could be a nice little snowfall after 1 AM MDT Monday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The "North" in "North American Model" has a double meaning tonight. The NAM is the North American Mesoscale; actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 is the 3k nam any good within 24 hours? Yes it is. It has had a good handle on the pattern (at least here) for the last three months. Very good in fact; inside 24. For example; yesterday all the models had snow continuing after 5 PM all through the night. The NAM shut things off after 0z (which is 5 PM MDT). Practically nothing but light flurries & snow showers fell after dark here yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 00z UK is holding serve, if not a hair north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The NAM is the North American Mesoscale; actually.Excuse me, I'm running off not sleeping for 24 hours. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Excuse me, I'm running off not sleeping for 24 hours. Then you should take a nap so you can enjoy the snow; if it does come your way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The NAM is most known for very sharp QPF cutoffs; and a general rule of thumb is that if the EC and the NAM agree; the outcome is more or less written in stone; no matter what any dissenting models might say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Then you should take a nap so you can enjoy the snow; if it does come your way.I should be out of class by the time it starts tomorrow. I'll probably have to enjoy it from downtown Lincoln instead of on my couch with a fire going like usual. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 I should be out of class by the time it starts tomorrow. I'll probably have to enjoy it from downtown Lincoln instead of on my couch with a fire going like usual. Gee; you must be one of those "Rich Kids"; the son of a Texas oil baron; perhaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 00z UK precip.... loses a bit of its punch as it reaches eastern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gee; you must be one of those "Rich Kids"; the son of a Texas oil baron; perhaps?Well I did come here from Texas, but sadly my dad is a consultant who currently works in Detroit. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The HRRR is now in nearly full range, so here is its initial qpf forecast for Iowa... much more like the NAM/Euro, showing squat for southern Iowa where the GFS/GDPS/ICON are painting heavy precip. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Love where I'm at with this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Yeah won't get anything from the HRRR lol. GFS / RGEM / CMC both gives us 2 inches. I would take that in a heartbeat. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks like an IA special......just 'where' in IA? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 What looked like a non-event 12 hours ago suddenly has some additional support from 0z HRDPS & 0z NAM...with close to 1/4 inch LE...with temps in the teens; it could be a nice little snowfall after 1 AM MDT Monday morning. The ARW 2 hits this are very hard with some intense snow starting...well; in less than an hour...with 0.3 LE + We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The ARW 2 hits this are very hard with some intense snow starting...well; in less than an hour...with 0.3 LE + We'll see.Did it initiate well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 00z Euro.... holding serve, a bit drier here... just under 0.30". Models, in general, are showing the qpf peaking out in central Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Did it initiate well? I didn't take the time to look...if it didn't; I rather not know. Sometimes ignorance is bliss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 I didn't take the time to look...if it didn't; I rather not know. Sometimes ignorance is bliss.No doubt about that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Time to lock in to radar and short term model trends. Should be wide spread advisory snows at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The ARW 2 hits this are very hard with some intense snow starting...well; in less than an hour...with 0.3 LE + We'll see. Few flurries at 12:23 AM MDT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Potential pound town MBY??? Literally 10 miles N of me. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks great Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The rap and hrrr have consistently been targeting highway 30 in Iowa with some very heavy snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 The cutoff on the HRRR is very sharp between CR and Iowa City. Iowa City keeps showing up on the southern edge of the heaviest band. Cedar Rapids looks to be in a great spot. I’m right in between. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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