February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

Final measurement of 0.6" brings my total to 7.2"

[shakjen]

Just got done snow blowing, still coming down pretty hard. Its hard to measure with all the blowing going on, but I would estimate we are somewhere in the 5-6" range. And most if not all of that is just today.

[hlcater]

3km NAM brings the band of heaviest snow tonight right through CR dropping 2-4" But its the 3km NAM, which is terrible. Also supports the 12km with the last wave. If we can score 4.0" from these last 2 waves(combined), I'll consider the blunder that was this event rectified, but that amount is stretching it.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018020918/024/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Lemont hit 12"...SW burbs got crushed this morning/afternoon...8-12" reports widespread...

[BrianJK]

Man, 18z NAM a bit more juicy for the Sat pm into Sunday wave...atta boy NAM...keep it up!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020918/048/snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

This just lift and forcing again, or is there any moisture feed?

[shakjen]

Lemont hit 12"...SW burbs got crushed this morning/afternoon...8-12" reports widespread...

Is that round 2 out in Nebraska or the end of round 1 still?

[BLIZZARD09]

Here is a list of snowfall totals which are darn close to what was expected:

sorry Tom , but how was this close to what was expected when the nws was caliling for 10-14" plus

[Money]

sorry Tom , but how was this close to what was expected when the nws was caliling for 10-14" plus

Exactly

 

I saw 10-14 totals for one wave all over

[jaster220]

I have been sick with a bad case of bronchitis so I have not kept up on snow fall amounts. But today I am feeling a little better and I took the best readings I could from the driveway (that had been cleared off before last night) and came up with a snow fall of 5.7" on new snow and now have 11.4" in the yard.  My main surprise was all of the school closings that we had today. Even being sick I did clear off part of the drive way with just a shovel the snow is not a wet heavy type so it was easy to move. Oh well I guess kids today just don't have to attend school like when I was a kid.

 

Yep, my kids are just finishing primary education. You wouldn't recognize it any more. Even my daughter who graduated 2 yrs ago felt it was lame. It's become all about everything else other than focusing on the traditional core subjects. Anyway, back on topic. Had 1/2" per hr rates and picked up 1" from 1-3 pm. In a very light area now. One more decent band to my west. If I get that, could end with 6-7"

[Tom]

sorry Tom , but how was this close to what was expected when the nws was caliling for 10-14" plus

Didn’t the LOT maps show 8-14” through Friday? Totals across the northern half of the CWA didn’t quite cash in but the south/southwest actually made up for it today. I think the GFS did the best with the placement of the axis of heaviest snows if I recall.

[Tom]

Look at the 00z GFS snowfall forecast from last night...that's darn close to what transpired in N IL..

 

[Tom]

This just lift and forcing again, or is there any moisture feed?

Pretty much both...

[Tom]

From WGN:

 

 

 

Snow really piling up in the south portions of the Chicago Metro area- 10-12 inch totals becoming common

 

Earlville 9.5 inches

Plainfield 10.3 inches

Lake-of-the Four-Seasons 10.0 inches

[bud2380]

18z RGEM blasts southern Iowa. 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020918/021/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

DMX issued a winter wx advisory from I80 on south in their warning area.  

[jaster220]

Radar is horribly splotchy over here. Jackson may be seeing partial clearing-wow!

[bud2380]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches are expected.

* WHERE...Along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor with the
heaviest snow occurring along the highway 34 corridor.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Saturday.

[jaster220]

Didn’t the LOT maps show 8-14” through Friday? Totals across the northern half of the CWA didn’t quite cash in but the south/southwest actually made up for it today. I think the GFS did the best with the placement of the axis of heaviest snows if I recall.

At one point LOT had upped totals on their map to 10-14". I remember seeing it too

[bud2380]

and now DVN followed suit.  WWA for 80 on south.  

 

 

[Niko]

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif

 

Futurecast has it snowing in my area past 830pm this evening. WOW. Currently @ 5.0".

[gosaints]

Look at the 00z GFS snowfall forecast from last night...that's darn close to what transpired in N IL..

 

 

Right by last night most models had much more realistic solution especially if you refrained from whacky kuchera maps.  It was a couple days ago that widespread 12 to even 18 inch amounts were being spit out.  Overall the Euro handled the storm best

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Looks like a good 3-5 isolated 6 here in omaha. Sounds good to me!

[Tabitha]

About 4.0" of snow here from the biggest storm of the season.

 

It's actually kind of nice outside; though the temp is in the vicinity of zero.  I like the cold.

 

Probably around 5 or 6 inches of snow on the ground; depending where you look.

 

The 4" bring the seasonal total to 21.2"; which is at least moving in the right direction.

 

Despite the small annual total; the ground has been well-covered with snow on 50 days this winter season. 

 

This was the 22nd measurable event here.

 

In my previous venue; some other weather people considered the possibility that I had a tendency to under-measure; as though they lived nearby, they often came in with better snow totals.  Since the topography (and other considerations) were far more uniform there than here; the discrepancies seemed less understandable than any that might manifest in these parts.

 

It is still snowing very lightly here at 1:30 PM MDT.

 

Finished with about 4.2" of snow here.

There are some "sun snow showers" continuing.

 

Sometimes it snows better here with the sun shining than when there is a thick overcast.

 

Look like the Chicago Airport (not named after Madalyn Murray!) ended with more snow than I did.

 

Well, you win some, you lose some.

Lol.

 

February Total: 5.9"

Seasonal Total: 21.4"

[hlcater]

HRRR is pulling some funny business with regards to snowfall. Radar composite shows light precip falling over the CR/IC areas tonight yet none of it hits the ground for some reason. When I pull a sounding, there's only very minor dryness in the very low levels, not enough to the point where it would cause virga. I'm not sure what's up with that.

 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2018020921_016_41.7--91.6.png

[bud2380]

LATEST RAP

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018020921/020/snku_acc.conus.png

[Tabitha]

Associated Press / 9 February 2018:  Omaha stares down blizzard:  The Governor of Nebraska and the Mayor of the City of Omaha had an emergency meeting at 9:00 AM CST Friday to discuss preparations for the coming blizzard. 

There was frank talk about raising the so-called "OmahaDome" to protect the citizenry from the Coming Storm.

Stay with this News Agency for Future Details.

[Bryan1117]

Associated Press / 9 February 2018: Omaha stares down blizzard: The Governor of Nebraska and the Mayor of the City of Omaha had an emergency meeting at 9:00 AM CST Friday to discuss preparations for the coming blizzard.

There was frank talk about raising the so-called "OmahaDome" to protect the citizenry from the Coming Storm.

Stay with this News Agency for Future Details.

This is awesome! Nice work Tabitha.

[Niko]

So far, Detroit has picked up 7.3" and plenty more to fall. Snow not ending until 11pm or so tonight. This is a daily record snowfall for today. Winter snowfall thus far is at 48.5". Sweet!

 

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif

[hlcater]

LATEST RAP

 

 

 

22z came even further north. Looks like even CR sees 2-3."

[Hawkeye]

So the HRDPS and HRRR have caved and moved nearly all the wave 2 snow south of Cedar Rapids.  Everything that could go wrong with this event did go wrong.

[BLIZZARD09]

The NWS forecast was for all of cook county, not just the southern suburbs--so that was not a good call

[FV-Mike]

The NWS forecast was for all of cook county, not just the southern suburbs--so that was not a good call

The storm didn't hit the highest totals but if you read LOT's AFD's they had sound reasoning for their estimates. Personally just happy to get a storm over 7 inches!

[bud2380]

23z HRRR showing 4” for Iowa City.

[hlcater]

The HRRR/RAP bring that snow right through CR/IC now. Interesting.

[Tabitha]

The fact that the so-called "2nd Storm" is proving to be far, far weaker than every model had it progged to be is hardly surprising from a meteorological perspective.

 

It is very, very rare to have two consecutive powerful storms within a short time frame.

 

This is because the earth's energy field is in equilibrium; and hence the first storm will ALWAYS rob the energy that the second was supposed to tap.

 

The atmosphere always needs a period to settle down after undergoing the convulsion a powerful storm inflicts upon it.

 

There is only so much energy to go around. 

 

Thus you will almost never see two big storms...one right after the other...inside of 5 short days.

[shakjen]

Snowing again. Had about a 2.5 hour break. Second wave not far behind.

[bud2380]

Nam showing 6” IMBY! NAM! NAM! NAM!

[Iowawx]

I’m feeling very good about this in CR. Radar looks great.

[Tom]

00z NAM looks solid for N IL Sat pm... widespread 3-5” w/ isolated 6”???

[hlcater]

That bad has to be pure rippage out north of OMA right now. Also models “seem” to be too far south with the primary band. But that could easily weaken and reform down in SE NE. Time will tell. My guess for my house; 1.5” CR airport 2.5.”