March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Good news is that the 12Z ECMWF shoves the last of the drizzle into Oregon on Wednesday... and its actually dry up here and a little cooler.   

 

Must be a little more northerly push on this run.  

 

But then Andrew gets a full day of 50-degree drizzle on Wednesday.   He needs it though.   

[Jesse]

Lol.

 

Rofl. Lmao. Lawl.

[Phil]

Rofl. Lmao. Lawl.

And lulz. Lots and lots of lulz.

[Jesse]

And lulz. Lots and lots of lulz.

Posting maps and laughing at them isn’t the best way to dispense information.

[TT-SEA]

Huge improvements on the 12Z ECMWF for next weekend and beyond (unless you are cheering for another very cold air mass and snow).

 

Big ridge moves in on Easter Sunday on this run... mostly sunny and around 60 that day as opposed to all day rain and highs in the 40s on the 00Z run.   Hopefully the models can converge on this solution now that we are inside a week.

[TT-SEA]

This is a nice looking precip map for Easter Sunday (12Z ECMWF).

 

[Phil]

Posting maps and laughing at them isn’t the best way to dispense information.

Wasn’t anything too analytical. I’m just surprised how widespread the frigid air is across North America on the modeling. Some of the EPS members have the entire continent above 25N below normal early next month.

 

Not even a real +NAO pattern, either. It’s displaced pretty far south into Canada and the North Atlantic which fits the climatology of a developing cold IO/-AMO, if that’s indeed where we are headed.

 

We’ll see..I don’t have the answers. The Canada/NATL pattern is very unpredictable and can turn on a dime without warning, and then persist for decades to centuries at a time. The North Pacific is easier to predict by comparison (though not without its challenges). Still, it’s a much more stable yin/yang resonance as far as its frequency is concerned.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At this point I think it's time to start thinking about 18-19.  Any early anal logs?

 

I asked this earlier and forgive me for not knowing, but were events like Dec 2008 more commonplace here before 1990?

[Phil]

At this point I think it's time to start thinking about 18-19. Any early anal logs?

 

I asked this earlier and forgive me for not knowing, but were events like Dec 2008 more commonplace here before 1990?

Too early for concrete analogs, but given we can probably extrapolate the QBO to next winter, we can start eliminating some years that we know will not share the proper tropical convective structure.

 

Still, that doesn’t tell us much. Yet..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As usual I will use a blend of 1919, 1930, 1937,1949, 1950, 1969 for my analogs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Improvement

 

http://www3.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/or_swepctnormal_update.png

[Phil]

As usual I will use a blend of 1919, 1930, 1937,1949, 1950, 1969 for my analogs.

Lol.

 

In all seriousness, we can do some guesswork.

 

First, using QBO for a framework (completely ignoring ENSO and solar, for now) gives you an array of possibilities:

 

1951/52

1954/55

1956/57

1959/60

1963/64

1968/69

1970/71

1972/73

1977/78

1979/80

1982/83

1984/85

1989/90

1992/93

1996/97

1998/99

2001/02

2005/06

2007/08

2012/13

 

Removing amplified ENSOs (next winter should be a very modest expression):

 

1954/55

1956/57

1959/60

1977/78

1979/80

1984/85

1989/90

1992/93

1996/97

2001/02

2005/06

2012/13

 

Removing the steroidal solar maximum years:

 

1954/55

1956/57

1977/78

1984/85

1996/97

2001/02

2005/06

2012/13

 

Lastly, removing years under the *inclining* phase of the solar cycle, and years preceded by +ENSOs occurring with high geomagnetic activity..

 

Leaves us with:

 

1956/57

1984/85

1996/97

2001/02

2005/06

 

All were similar (cool over the northwest but warm over most of the country) except 1984/85. Also, all of these winters except 1984/85 were followed by an El Niño during the following winter (1957/58, 1997/98, 2002/03, 2006/07, 2019/20?).

[ShawniganLake]

Lol.

 

In all seriousness, we can do some guesswork.

 

Lastly, removing years under the *inclining* phase of the solar cycle, and years preceded by +ENSOs occurring with high geomagnetic activity..

 

Leaves us with:

 

1956/57

1984/85

1996/97

2001/02

2005/06

 

05/06 was a dud, otherwise I’d be okay with those outcomes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

05/06 was a dud, otherwise I’d be okay with those outcomes.

96-97 was for the Willamette Valley too

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I agree the sine wave has likely peaked (as far as the multidecadal NAM vascillation cycle is concerned). If there’s any structural climate analog era to this one, it’s probably the mid/late 1940s (IMO).

 

Of course, when it comes to parameteizing the climate system, you’re really talking about a series of overlapping sine waves, all superimposed on additional series of overlapping sine waves (of perpetually lowering frequency). So the appearance is of something bizarre and excessively non-linear until you zoom out to orbital timescales.

 

So, I do believe there are some notable differences when comparing today’s system state with that of the early/mid 1940s. And while the 2020s will possibly resemble the 1950s in a number of ways, there will clearly be differences there, as well.

 

The big difference may in fact be the increasing amplitude of the bipolar seesaw/ITCZ seasonality that I mentioned earlier, which loses homogeneity to the 1950s both absolutely and seasonally, since said seasonality progresses too slowly backwards over each solar year relative to the annular modes and Pacific warm pool.

 

So, arguably we’re going to repeat the 1950s, as far as the WHEM meridional modes are concerned, but we’ll have more amplified annular modes and an uncertain warm pool state, with an increasingly muted Arctic temperature seasonality, in contrast with an increasingly amplified Antarctic temperature seasonality.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting how the next 20-25 years come together. While I don't think every winter will be great here in the PNW, I believe the frequency of bigger events will be more common place. Of course there's going to be some duds along the way but that's normal. I currently think this coming winter 18/19 will have tremendous potential and could possibly be the snowiest winter here in the PNW since 1968/69. I've been researching while gathering evidence and will share them soon.

[Phil]

Yeah, it's going to be interesting how the next 20-25 years come together. While I don't think every winter will be great here in the PNW, I believe the frequency of bigger events will be more common place. Of course there's going to be some duds along the way but that's normal. I currently think this coming winter 18/19 will have tremendous potential and could possibly be the snowiest winter here in the PNW since 1968/69. I've been researching while gathering evidence and will share them soon.

Haha. Baby steps, my friend. You should set your expectations lower. Climate is like a speeding locomotive. Loaded with inertia..it doesn’t just stop in its tracks, let alone time-warp back 5 miles.

 

In rare, unfortunate instances, however, the locomotive can derail, often when it’s speeding too fast, pushed beyond the mechanical “thresholds” it’s designed to operate within, etc. In such instances, it’s a bad day for those on the locomotive at the time (civilizations and ecosystems on Earth, in this analogy).

[TT-SEA]

The GFS ensembles and the EPS are now in really good agreement in the long range.   Here is the 12Z EPS blended mean for days 10-15:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS ensembles and the EPS are now in really good agreement in the long range.   Here is the 12Z EPS blended mean for days 10-15:

 

 

Glad you have what you wanted. 

[Phil]

I’m not exactly sure what you would call this pattern..

 

[Farmboy]

The GFS ensembles and the EPS are now in really good agreement in the long range. Here is the 12Z EPS blended mean for days 10-15:

 

That doesn't look too warm. Can you post the warmest day out that upcoming period..?

[TT-SEA]

That doesn't look too warm. Can you post the warmest day out that upcoming period..?

Its not what I thought was coming. And in this case... it does not change much the entire period. I usually post the blended 10-15 day mean when there is not a big change in that period that would be hidden by a blended mean. And because others only have access through 10 days. I posted many cold versions of this leading up to the cold event(s) in February.

 

It is what it is.

 

Nice to see good agreement though between the GFS and EPS.

[Farmboy]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thats what she said.

Jeeesus Tim!! Lol

[TT-SEA]

At least we have that. Was kinda hoping to get in a couple good multi-day hikes before memorial day, but I don't want to go if I'm going to get drenched or freeze my a** off. It's nice to feel some warm sunshine on you while you're hiking.

 

There will certainly be some nice periods between now and Memorial Day.

[James Jones]

There will certainly be some nice periods between now and Memorial Day.

[TT-SEA]

That is one ugly month.  

 

Do you have the link to that site with the really old Portland records?   I had it at one time but lost it.

 

That would be Andrew's wet dream for a warm season month.   

[James Jones]

That is one ugly month.  

 

Do you have the link to that site with the really old Portland records?   I had it at one time but lost it.

 

These ones?

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/index.php

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00024274/detail

[TT-SEA]

These ones?

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/index.php

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00024274/detail

 

The second link is the one I wanted.   Thanks!

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z GFS is delightful!  Seems like a zonal flow situation, with lots of rain.  

[TT-SEA]

The 18Z GFS is delightful!  Seems like a zonal flow situation, with lots of rain.  

 

I always hope the GFS shows 17 days of rain for the slight chance that I hear distant thunder for 7 seconds at some point in there.  It would be the thrill of a lifetime.   I hate to be outside when its nice.   

 

 

(I am trolling here)

 

But I am sure this obviously joking post will earn a "Jesus Christ" from Jesse.    

[Esquimalt]

I always hope the GFS shows 17 days of rain for the slight chance that I hear distant thunder for 7 seconds at some point in there.  It would be the thrill of a lifetime.   I hate to be outside when its nice.   

 

 

(I am trolling here)

 

But I am sure this obviously joking post will earn a "Jesus Christ" from Jesse.     

Jesus Christ.

[BLI snowman]

After the winter we had I'm ready for some rain. Not sure our glaciers could handle another Arizona spring and summer. May in particular has been frustratingly arid.

[TT-SEA]

Jesus Christ.

 

Not the same... needs to come from Jesse.    

 

By the way... where are you from in the prairies?   

[TT-SEA]

After the winter we had I'm ready for some rain. Not sure our glaciers could handle another Arizona spring and summer. May in particular has been frustratingly arid.

 

Don't the glaciers normally build during a deep solar minimum?

[BLI snowman]

Don't the glaciers normally build during a deep solar minimum?

Recent summers have done a number.

[TT-SEA]

Turned out to be a really nice weekend.   Woke up to a snowy scene yesterday morning but has been pretty much dry since that time.  

 

Today was basically partly sunny all day with just one brief shower that lasted for a couple minutes.      

[TT-SEA]

Recent summers have done a number.

 

They will come and go for billions of years into the future... long after we have exited stage right.  

 

And the next super volcano or large asteroid will happen relatively soon geologically speaking.   That will take care of the Earth's pesky human problem.  

[Jesse]

After the winter we had I'm ready for some rain. Not sure our glaciers could handle another Arizona spring and summer. May in particular has been frustratingly arid.

Couldn’t agree more.

[Deweydog]

Couldn’t agree more.

A treasure trove of agreement!

[Esquimalt]

Not the same... needs to come from Jesse.    

 

By the way... where are you from in the prairies?   

Manitoba...  it's pretty dry there except in the summer, when there's some really torrential rainy days--sort of the opposite of here lol.  Where are you from originally?