Stacsh Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 With the discussion of “winter” returning here are some fun facts. Yes there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will see snow in March. In fact in Grand Rapids recorded history only in 6 years did March have less than 1” of snow fall they are 1. 1910 is the only year were no snow fell in March. 2. 1908 only 0.2” fell but the month started with 5” on the ground and there was snow on the ground until the 10th 3. 1945 only a trace fell. 4. In 2009 only 0.4” fell 4. 2000 0.6” fell in March but in April there was 7.8” that fell and there was 6” on the ground on April 8th that year.In the last 30 years the average snow fall for March here at Grand Rapids is 7.5” and has ranged form 0.4” in 2009 (and that 0.6” in 2000) to 22.6” in 2002 (19.3” fell in1996) 36.0” is the current March record set in 1965. Note in the last 10 years the number of double digit March snow fall totals has fallen to only one March 10.1” in 2015. In the past March snow fall totals of over 10” were more common. Curious what 2012 was like in March in Grand Rapids? I know it torched for most of the month. Was the beginning snowy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Curious what 2012 was like in March in Grand Rapids? I know it torched for most of the month. Was the beginning snowy? Grand Rapids recorded 0.3" of snow on the 1st a trace on the 2nd 2.0" on the 3rd a trace was reported on the 4th and 5th it warmed up to mid 60's on the 6th 7th and 8th turned colder on the 9th with 0.5" of snow reported. Turned warm on the 11th and stay warm until the 30th The low for the month was 19° on the 5th the warmest was 87° on the 21st 5 days were in the 80's 5 were in the 70's there was 2.8" of snow for the month at Grand Rapids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z GFS continues the trend of moving the heavy snow further south. E MN and W WI get hit pretty hard. Up to 9” here. Stormgeek in Anoka County north of me hit with 10-11”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wow! Haven't looked at weather all week, looks pretty crazy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 That Hudson Bay Block is def getting stronger and shifting the storm farther S/SW each run per the GFS.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Man, if this can track a little farther south, the LES plume showing up on the GFS is looking intriguing and reminds me of last year's LES snow event, but we would need a bit better set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 ^ nice gif. Getting interesting for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 With the increased blocking it keeps this area free from the dry slot as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Of course we are in the dry slot, so the forecast is incredibly strong winds, low humidity, and very high fire danger. Can it get much worse than that from NWS Hastings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Canadian didn't look too bad through 60; not sure if it is rain or snow. Yes; looked nice through 120; as it is the only model that understands that as wind is forced up higher terrain; precip is enhanced rather than diminished. Has the heaviest snow right on the eastern border of Pennington County. Too bad it is such a long county. At least it is getting closer. It stretches from the 102 W to 104 W....138 miles from west to east. 12z Canadian continues to be the only model that does not hate this area...it was actually a fraction better than 0z. I guess you could throw in the RGEM; but that is just the short range version of the Canadian. The RGEM is a very good model (along with its mesoscale cousin, the HRDPS / GEM-LAM); but it is not in its good range until inside 24 hours. Most others are dry...and not near misses; but 100 mile misses..at least. I did not think it could get worse than last night's ECMWF...until I saw the 12z NAM. My March 3rd "blizzard prediction" from a couple of weeks ago for around here not looking too good. The 9z SREF's plumes were pretty bad; though there were a couple of good hits...and it was a drop better than the 3z look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z GFS continues the trend of moving the heavy snow further south. E MN and W WI get hit pretty hard. Up to 9” here. Stormgeek in Anoka County north of me hit with 10-11”.Ssshhhhh I am trying to lurk this thread. Been keeping an eye on trends. Hope things keep going the same way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z GGEM also following suit and trending S/SW each run.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 The TC metro is going to be riding the northern fringe at this pace. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 That is a hard series of images for my eyes to discern; as it moves too fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Gosaints also looking good. Gonna get some awesome snow rates on the eastern side of this deepening low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Gosaints also looking good. Gonna get some awesome snow rates on the eastern side of this deepening low.Crazy thump snows for sure...awesome storm to track and quite entertaining watching the models..haven’t tracked a cut off bowling ball like this in years! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 NAM isn't worth the paper its printed on; RGEM will prevail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wow 15in in Madison! Story of the year...ill believe it when it's on the ground! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 12z GGEM also following suit and trending S/SW each run....Wew, I was excited to see the extended was heading towards a 24 hour sub 28 degree snow blowing opportunity, but if we get 8 inches of wet, heavy snow, I'll be snowboarding until April. Hopefully this shares the wealth with those north of me, so we can build that snow pack back up and keep the could around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wew, I was excited to see the extended was heading towards a 24 hour sub 28 degree snow blowing opportunity, but if we get 8 inches of wet, heavy snow, I'll be snowboarding until April. Hopefully this shares the wealth with those north of me, so we can build that snow pack back up and keep the could around.Building snow pack around our area is hard to do, easier near the US/Canadian border this time of year, but I do see several more chances of snow by months end. LRC keeps the colder pattern through at least Spring Equinox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wouldn't be surprised if SPC completely scrubbed the marginal risk for here. Looks like the Northern boundary for severe hail will be KS. We're just gonna get regular ol' thunderstorms. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 The 12z Euro is following suit and looks nearly identical compared to the 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 I neglected to renew my WxBell subscription so if anyone can post Euro maps, thanks in advance... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 POS Euro actually is shifting noticeably to the left / west at 12z; after that obscene and absurd 0z run. It is probably too late to help me; but as my father would often say: "Every little bit helps" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 I don’t have access to anything other than the free maps on weather.us but it looks like 1.4” qpf (snow) just east of St Cloud. I think MPX expands the watch with the afternoon package. Not sure if they’ll include the TC but it will be close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 I don’t have access to anything other than the free maps on weather.us but it looks like 1.4” qpf (snow) just east of St Cloud. I think MPX expands the watch with the afternoon package. Not sure if they’ll include the TC but it will be close.Wow, your gonna get hit good buddy...what are some of the Top 5 snowiest March storms? Sheesh, you’ve had quite a ride since late Jan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Building snow pack around our area is hard to do, easier near the US/Canadian border this time of year, but I do see several more chances of snow by months end. LRC keeps the colder pattern through at least Spring Equinox. Snowhills keep snow very well. It's extremely dense and usually more like ice due to a lot of freeze and thaw. All the piles of snow from plowing here are gone, but there's still a foot or two on the ski hill from a peak of around 30 inches. If we got 8 inches of wet snow, they would groom it and beat it down and it'd stay much, much longer than anything else on the ground. Ski hill base around SE wisconsin this time of year is usually 3 to 6 inches of snow cone like snow on top of solid ice. It takes a lot for that ice to go away, and as it goes away, it gets soft and they can turn it back into that snow cone stuff. Regardless, even if this storm doesn't play out, it's going to bring in cold behind it, cold enough to blow snow. Five years ago, none of the resorts in SE wisconsin would put much effort into staying open past President's Day. Ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, Alpine Valley at least, has been super aggressive with trying to open early and close late. As a midwestern snowboarder, this set up is one of the best things you can ask for in March, even if we don't get that snow, the cold will make up for it. Specially if it stays around. After March, I give up on the big storms and am just happy with cold. And it looks like it's coming after this, just like you've been saying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Snowhills keep snow very well. It's extremely dense and usually more like ice due to a lot of freeze and thaw. All the piles of snow from plowing here are gone, but there's still a foot or two on the ski hill from a peak of around 30 inches. If we got 8 inches of wet snow, they would groom it and beat it down and it'd stay much, much longer than anything else on the ground. Ski hill base around SE wisconsin this time of year is usually 3 to 6 inches of snow cone like snow on top of solid ice. It takes a lot for that ice to go away, and as it goes away, it gets soft and they can turn it back into that snow cone stuff. Regardless, even if this storm doesn't play out, it's going to bring in cold behind it, cold enough to blow snow. Five years ago, none of the resorts in SE wisconsin would put much effort into staying open past President's Day. Ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, Alpine Valley at least, has been super aggressive with trying to open early and close late. As a midwestern snowboarder, this set up is one of the best things you can ask for in March, even if we don't get that snow, the cold will make up for it. Specially if it stays around. After March, I give up on the big storms and am just happy with cold. And it looks like it's coming after this, just like you've been saying.Very interesting to hear how things have changed ever since Vail resorts bought Wilmot. I haven't skied there in years, since I first started to learn how to ski back in the mid 90's! I usually either go to Chestnut Mtn or up in Wisco (Devil's head or Cascade). The last time I skied was back in Feb 2014 during the Olympics period over in Chestnut. Since then, I haven't been to interested, well, you know why...winters have been sub par since then but this year wasn't all that bad actually. Did Cascade have their last weekend open this weekend or was it last weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Very interesting to hear how things have changed ever since Vail resorts bought Wilmot. I haven't skied there in years, since I first started to learn how to ski back in the mid 90's! I usually either go to Chestnut Mtn or up in Wisco (Devil's head or Cascade). The last time I skied was back in Feb 2014 during the Olympics period over in Chestnut. Since then, I haven't been to interested, well, you know why...winters have been sub par since then but this year wasn't all that bad actually. Did Cascade have their last weekend open this weekend or was it last weekend? Cascade is still 100% open from what I see. I mostly hang around AV. But things have gotten a lot more aggressive, even Granite Peak pushed to open up in October. They usually have really good deals this time of year, too. If we get this snow, and it stays in the 30s for a while, it'll actually be really nice. A few years ago, AV would get icy in February and they wouldn't care and they'd just keep it icy. They've been blowing as soon as they can when it gets like that. I assume the other hills have been as well. Next weekend will probably be a pretty good time to go. The snow quality, at least at AV, has improved a lot since 2014. Though the last week was pretty rough, granted we did have those warm days. AV is my home hill, I'm sort of biased, but they've improved a lot. I've been a season pass holder since 2009 and I've abused it every single year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Cascade is still 100% open from what I see. I mostly hang around AV. But things have gotten a lot more aggressive, even Granite Peak pushed to open up in October. They usually have really good deals this time of year, too. If we get this snow, and it stays in the 30s for a while, it'll actually be really nice. A few years ago, AV would get icy in February and they wouldn't care and they'd just keep it icy. They've been blowing as soon as they can when it gets like that. I assume the other hills have been as well. Next weekend will probably be a pretty good time to go. The snow quality, at least at AV, has improved a lot since 2014. Though the last week was pretty rough, granted we did have those warm days. AV is my home hill, I'm sort of biased, but they've improved a lot. I've been a season pass holder since 2009 and I've abused it every single year.That's great to hear the slopes have improved. If you take the 12z Euro at face value, your dream will come true by the following weekend...it suggests 1.6-2.0 qpf worth of snow! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 The snow shouldn't be sinking much further sw, if at all, but the rest of my area looks good for a 0.50-1.00" soaking, with perhaps some thunder. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Wow, your gonna get hit good buddy...what are some of the Top 5 snowiest March storms? Sheesh, you’ve had quite a ride since late Jan.A quick scan of the Top 20 snowfalls on record at MSP show that 6 of them occurred in March. The biggest was 16.7” which happened in both 1940 and 1985. Next in line was 16”, 14.7” and 14”. We won’t hit any of those for sure but the potential is there to get a nice hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 18z NAM going even bigger. 10” line a few miles away and that’s only thru hour 57. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Weenie Nam is at it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Oddly it’s really not that far off from the other models right now. We’ll see what happens. I still don’t trust it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Models haven't gotten drier so far as we get closer. That would be a change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 MPX expanded the watch to cover the metro. Going with 5-8” for now with localized 10”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 MPX expanded the watch to cover the metro. Going with 5-8” for now with localized 10”.LA crosse still not buying the west shift so far today watch only in far NE counties.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 I think it end up 7:1 concrete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 3, 2018 Report Share Posted March 3, 2018 Enjoying this 68 degrees right now! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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