3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[Money]

RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15

 

4km nam just destroys chicago

[james1976]

RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15

 

4km nam just destroys chicago

really??? any north iowa hits?

[DominicR]

RUC is even N of the NAM and the HRRR is really far north at HR 15

 

4km nam just destroys chicago

 

Maps.

[NEJeremy]

Don't worry guys- we're not missing out here either. Last I saw we might get .3" tomorrow evening..... God this sucks

[DominicR]

Don't worry guys- we're not missing out here either. Last I saw we might get .3" tomorrow evening..... God this sucks

[Money]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

[Sciascia]

Mike Caplan on FB:

 

 

I've just gotten a glance at tonight's run of the NAM (a computer model we all use) It has been a HIGH outlier on snowfall amounts and now it is positively unreal. Stay tuned.

[Money]

HRRR at HR 15 has the low in S. Nebraska lol

[james1976]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

thats so close to me i can throw rocks and hit it....but still doesnt give me anything. i hate it.

[Geos]

HRRR at HR 15 has the low in S. Nebraska lol

 

Congrats you and Milwaukee then!

[East Dubzz]

Congrats you and Milwaukee then!

And a 992mb low at that time.. lol

[Tom]

This would be the perfect storm to put the icing on the cake for this winter here in Chicago if the NAM comes even close to what its showing.  Classic Spring time storm that I've been saying all long back in February will bring fuel to the fire to wind up these monster storms.

[james1976]

not that I expect it to happen but hasnt the HRRR been pretty accurate this winter?

[Money]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-68-0-19759000-1394505864.gif

[indianajohn]

Been running around all night enjoying the awesome weather and I come back to a possible blizzard? Wow

[6789]

Is anyone else still in a state of shock haha!? Tom, if half this verified we are still looking at a solid 6-12" lol, I say 6" to not destroy my hopes! But, NAM being an outlier makes me feel a little uneasy, I don't really know yet...

[Niko]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-68-0-19759000-1394505864.gif

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD....................... Im in the 2ft+ zone!!!!!!!!!

[East Dubzz]

00z HRRR at HR 15:

 

[6789]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=winter_briefing

 

New discussion worth a read. 

[Sleather]

000
FXUS63 KLOT 110249
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
948 PM CDT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF
INTEREST NOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME.
THE NEW 00 UTC NAM IS CURRENTLY ROLLING IN AND IS VERY CONCERNING
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TRACKS THE LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING
THE CHICAGO METRO AND RFD AREAS. ALSO GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN INCHING NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...I CANNOT DISCOUNT
THE NAM SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LOT GOING FOR
IT...WITH ALL MODELS EVEN INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING
ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD FGEN SETTING UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...HEAVY SNOW...MAYBE EVEN WITH CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

IN SPITE OF ALL THIS...HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SHIFTING THE WATCH
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ILLINOIS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW
00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
HEADLINES...TO ENSURE THAT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO
GO. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NOW THAT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...THE 00UTC RAOBS SHOULD BE SAMPLING IT NOW...SO THE
NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SYSTEM.

KJB

&&

[6789]

Basically bringing us back to reality for a bit, 0z is the key I guess! 

[Scott26]

Basically bringing us back to reality for a bit, 0z is the key I guess! 

Very good discussion. Waiting for the rest of 0Z guidance is the way to go.

[indianajohn]

Anyone catch skilling? What was his take?

[Tom]

@ 6789, I agree, even if we get half of what the NAM is showing it's still a solid 8-10" snow storm.  Like I said, this system has everything going for it and now it is on shore and the NAM was the first model to digest the new data.  I expect the rest of the Global Models to follow suit.

 

FWIW, the NAM is showing temps crash into the 20's around midnight so the snow won't be a wetter version.  Maybe on the onset but quickly turn fluffier so snow ratios would increase as well.

 

1.0"+ QPF on the 4-km NAM...

 

[Trinomial]

skilling was at 4 - 8 for his totals.

[Money]

RGEM laughs at the nam.

 

similar as 12z.

[6789]

Anyone catch skilling? What was his take?

As of the last time I checked it was a 6-8" call for him. Now, he may increase them to 8-12". I'm not going to get to excited, and I'm going to stick with my 6-12" for now, bigger range until I see what other models are doing. Tom, said it best if it stays in the lower to upper 20's and we see these heavy bands I think 12" isn't out of the possibility MAYBE even 14" I still don't think we will hit the 16-24" I just think that's obscene as of now. 

[james1976]

donut hole!

[Geos]

not that I expect it to happen but hasnt the HRRR been pretty accurate this winter?

 

No, pretty bad.

[Tom]

Guys, remember the last dynamic system that hit in February that brought flooding concerns in N IL????  The NAM was spitting out 1-1.25" of rain and it did extremely well handling that system.  I'm optimistic this storm is going to hit us hard.

[Money]

HRRR/RAP/RUC/NAM all get it strong.

 

RGEM strongest is 997 it looks like until it gets out into IN/OH

[indianajohn]

I can under stand writing this run off if this was 3-4 days out but 24 hours before game time NAM has me a little concerned. Models did show something similar 10 days or so ago no?

[Madtown]

so whats it looking like up this way my 1": call still looking good?

[Jaycee]

How every Nebraskan looks @ mother nature after Chicago gets dumped on again:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o5Pu1rMxxTA/UMEFc0EijAI/AAAAAAAAYjM/w5PKPAhfc54/s1600/Puss+in+Boots+cute+expression.jpeg

 

 

EDIT: How are you guys getting these 12" totals from the HRRR?? That doesn't even have the precip getting going into my area 16 hours out?

 

Also, there was a storm here in March of 2007 where we had an advisory issued for 2-4", and got 17". I could see it Chicago, you guys got the record breaker on the ropes!

[Tom]

@ Indianajohn, the Euro was the only model that showed 1-2 Feet of snow over E IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI about 8 or 9 days ago. 

[East Dubzz]

How every Nebraskan looks @ mother nature after Chicago gets dumped on again:

 

 

EDIT: How are you guys getting these 12" totals from the HRRR?? That doesn't even have the precip getting going into my area 16 hours out?

I don't recall anyone saying the HRRR shows that..

[Tom]

Who's staying up for the GGEM/EURO??? HAHAHA, that extra hour of waiting is going to be killer...

[Madtown]

Hey tom, we got anything to worry about up here between mke and Madison got some travel to do on wed

[Jaycee]

I don't recall anyone saying the HRRR shows that..

You're right, I was looking at money's post about how the models are 'strong', not showing 12" haha my bad guys. I do like the looks of the HRRR though! If we get snow here I will actually be amazed. We got up to 79 here today, I just don't see how we'd get accumulation from this like the NAM is showing.

[Geos]

GGEM will be the limit for me tonight.

 

---

 

4km NAM has a concrete snow for NE IL until about 5z.